What will happen to Scott Walker?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

There is no way to project the reelection chances of a governor with 3.7 years left until election day unless there's been a horrible scandal.

While this is obviously true, there are some things to keep in mind about these three governors.  Walker would probably have lost to Barrett had 2010 not been such a monumentally bad year for Democrats, even if it had been a little bit more Republican than average, Barrett still would've likely won (although it might've been a small margin).  In 2014, Republicans will control most statewide offices in Wisconsin, on top of which, Walker is a proudly right-wing partisan in a (usually) left-of-center state (meaning that he would more likely than not face a strong challenger for reelection no matter what, the Democratic bench in Wisconsin took a big hit, but it wasn't wiped out by any means).  Additionally, some politicians (such as Kasich and Rand Paul) have a talent for sounding a lot more thoughtful and reasonable their positions actually are, but Walker has had this skill (at least, not to the degree he needs to in a state like Wisconsin).  It's not unreasonable to suggest that Walker may have thought he'd have a tough reelection race no matter what, and decided to instead go for as far right an agenda as he could even if it means he COULD end up a political dead man walking).  In Ohio, I think Kasich's situation is different, but with the same conclusion.  Strickland only lost because many Ohio voters (including many who would have voted for him all things being equal) felt that he had not fixed Ohio's economic problems in his first term (an outrageous expectation, but a very real one).  Had it not been for this, Kasich would have lost (probably by 5-10 pts).  The problems that have wrecked Ohio's economy, are causing people to flee everywhere in the state (aside from Columbus and its suburbs, which are growing) like it's the center of the earth, and decimated Cleveland (among other things) are not things Kasich would realistically be able to fix in his first term (especially not with the budget he's supporting).  Given that Richard Cordray (the strongest possible Democratic candidate) all but said he's going to run in 2014 right after the election, Kasich may have figured he'd lose for the same reason Strickland did and decided to try to both pass as far right an agenda as possible and guarantee that he'd never have to worry about getting the core Republican base in Ohio to turn out (even if he tried to tack to the center in 2014).  However, I will give you that in hindsight, my theory doesn't work very well with Snyder and I shouldn't have lumped him in with Walker and Kasich.  Lastly, I've got to say, I'm surprised Corbett hasn't tried to jump on Walker's bandwagon.  They seem to have a fairly similar temperament and Corbett is certainly not above using elected office to go after political opponents.  Are unions really more powerful in PA than in Ohio or Wisconsin, or is it something else?  Could a poster more knowledgable about that neck of the woods shed some light on this?  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Walker and Kasich (and to a lesser degree Snyder) knew that they would probably be one-termers anyway, so they are trying to ram through as extreme right-wing an agenda as possible before they are up for reelection.

Kasich I could see losing, but Walker and Snyder especially appear to be headed towards re-election.

Ohio governors have historically been re-elected.

I'm sure Ted Strickland is a good example of this.

He actually is--He only lost by a few points in 2010 despite the rest of the statewide ticket getting utterly destroyed.  Ohioans do generally like to re-elect their governors in most cases, but in 2010 the Republican wave was simply too large.

It's actually a bit more complicated than that, the wave wasn't the biggest reason Strickland lost, it was the perception that Ohio's economy hadn't improved during his term and fact that many Ohio voters had the unrealistic expectation that Strickland would be able to reverse Ohio's economic woes in one term (Strickland kept things from continuing to get worse and did about as good a job as could be expected given the circumstances, imo).  That being said, the reason the election was so close was not that Ohio loves reelecting governors, it was that Strickland was very strong candidate and ran an excellent campaign (with the exception of his performance in the debates, which was painful to watch).  If it hadn't been for the perceptions about his handling of the economy, Strickland would've won despite the Republican wave.  As for the rest of the Democratic ticket, O'Shaughnessy, Boyce, and Fisher ended up being lousy candidates for a variety of reasons.  David Pepper (I wouldn't say he was destroyed) was a good candidate and may very well have lost due to the wave, but if you want an example of an incumbent in Ohio who lost b/c of the wave, it's Cordray not Strickland.  Cordray and was arguably the best state Attorney General in the country, yet he lost to Mike DeWine, an unpopular party hack (although Cordray lost by less than Strickland).  Cordray, Strickland, and to a lesser degree Pepper weren't destroyed, O'Shaughnessy, Boyce, and Fisher (it's not like no one other than Strickland put up a good fight).