Rob Portman of 2018

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Manchin

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd be most inclined to bank on Brown, because Mandel just really isn't a good candidate.

I thought about that, but I don't even think that's a competitive race right now, tbh. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tammy Baldwin will be the Portman of 2018. I don't see any decent GOP candidate running against her.

That alone means she can't be the Portman of 2018.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tammy Baldwin will be the Portman of 2018. I don't see any decent GOP candidate running against her.

That alone means she can't be the Portman of 2018.

Yes, it would have to be someone who is considered very vulnerable by both parties (like Portman was in 2015 and 2016). Most pundits and Democrats think Baldwin, Tester, Brown, etc. are heavily favored and will win reelection easily, but the same is not true of Heidi Heitkamp. So like I said... ND (or maybe WV, to a lesser extent) is really the only plausible answer here IMO.

Also, Cramer, Campbell and the rest of the ND GOP are even more overrated than Strickland, and Heitkamp is at least as strong an incumbent as Rob Portman.

Who thinks Tester's a lock?  The consensus seems to be that he's slightly favored from what I've seen.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you haven't gotten the gist yet, TN Volunteer takes any argument that remotely disagrees with him and presents it to the extreme. Ie--most Democrats and pundits think Brown, Tester and Baldwin are SLIGHTLY favored at this point. He then presents it as they all think those Senators are HEAVILY favored.

I don't know anyone who thinks Tester will win by less than 5, and there are even several Republicans who think he will win fairly easily (say, 7-9 points), so this isn't intended to be a criticism of Democrats. To me, this doesn't sound like they think he's only "slightly" favored. Since Fox announced that he won't seek this Senate seat, the consensus seems to be that Tester will win by 7-10 points. I disagree with this, but this thread isn't about my opinion.

Most people think Mandel is a pretty awful candidate and that Brown should beat him, and Baldwin doesn't even have an opponent yet. We can debate about the meaning of "slightly" and "heavily" until the cows come home, but generally most people would agree that these races are much closer to Lean or Likely D than Tilt D. Thanks for playing, though.

I haven't met anyone who thinks Tester will win by more than 5% if he's re-elected.