Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island, NY Poll - Trump +4 (4-way)/Even (2-way)

[Absolution9]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

I think Nassau + Suffolk are only about 67% white per the 2010 census, would be even less now. 

[Absolution9]

Nassau + Suffolk together are around 77% White but higher educated on average.  Given that this poll has it Trump +4 in a 4 way races seems to be relatively good news for given that he is holding his own among educated Whites.  This sort of result implies somewhat of a tie nationally. 

I think Nassau + Suffolk are only about 67% white per the 2010 census, would be even less now. 

You are right. My mistake. I lumped in White Hispanics in the number. If so then this poll is very positive for Trump. 

Yeah non Hispanic whites probably make up over 70% of likely voters though.

[Absolution9]

This actually jives with the last statewide Siena poll that had Clinton up 21 statewide, but had her essentially tied in the NYC suburbs. It was her worst region.

If he is this close in the NYC suburbs I wouldn't be surprised if he does better than -21.  He has to be doing almost as well upstate as he is in the suburbs.

[Absolution9]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

[Absolution9]

Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties).  The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).

Is it ethnic differences?  Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?

It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican.  Weird.

We definitely need some more PA polls to confirm if this is the case, but I increasingly think we're either entering a realignment or this year is the first to display the results of such in full. My current theory is that 2008 was the actual realigning election, but that this year is the first time all the trends from that have become clear.

Not saying this explains all of it, but we shouldn't really expect NY trends to line up with how the nation trends this year because Hurricane Sandy got Obama a bunch of votes in that state that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise, and likely lowered turnout in certain coastal areas as well.

Yeah but these groups of suburbs have similar voting histories.  The last time a Republican presidential candidate won both in whole was 1988.  Since then the have gone to Democrats by basically 3-15 point margins. Yet the LI burbs are going toward Trump and the Philly burbs are going way against him this time.