The 100 States of America

[GAinDC]

Georgia

The Southern two thirds of the state. Compared to the original Georgia, this new state is much more rural, and more... well, Southern, culturally speaking. Unsurprisingly, it has one of the highest Black VAP shares, behind only MS and PT. Back when the White vote in the Deep South was less overwhelmingly Republican, this was enough to make it a reasonably competitive state, allowing Clinton to carry it twice. Its Republican trend has been pretty steady since 1996, however, and since 2000 its PVI has always been over R+10. With T***pism seemingly playing well in the rural South, this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Capital: Macon

House Seats (1963) 9
House Seats (2013) 9

VAP Demographics: 60% White, 33% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+14
PVI 2016: R+17

Congressional Representation: If Democrats couldn't win either of the last two Senate races in RL Georgia, they certainly wouldn't in this Georgia either. In the House, the VRA should reasonably require three districts with African-American majorities or strong pluralities. The other 6 are obviously Titanium-R.

Local Government: By the same token, if Kemp won the real GA in 2018, he would have won this GA easily (in fact, he won it by nearly 15 points). Similarly, Republicans in the legislature would probably not have felt compelled to re-gerrymander their maps to protect their majority in 2018. Under the current map, they hold 45 House seats out of the 63 or 64 that cover this state.


Chattahoochee

Conversely, this state encompasses the Atlanta metropolitan area, along with Georgia's Northern Appalachian tip. Must of RL Georgia's demographic boom originates from this part of the state, as Atlanta has grown to become one of America's largest economic and cultural hubs. While less Black than GA, CH is also less White, with ethnicities of more recent extraction like Hispanic and Asians are far more prevalent. It comes as no surprise that this urbanized, diverse and economically dynamic state has proven fertile grounds for Democrats in this political era. Hillary Clinton came tantalizingly close to winning it in 2016, missing the mark by less than half a point (the very Republican Appalachian North made all the difference for T***p). Historically, however, this is a stark reversal from the traditional pattern. With a few obvious anomalies (like 1964, where CH went for LBJ while the Deep-Southern GA supported Goldwater), CH was usually the more Republican of the two states - for example, Bill Clinton never managed to carry it. It was only in 2004 that the gap reversed itself - and even then, CH remained solidly Republican until 2016 came along. While Republicans should be nervous about this state going the same way as KG or even CP, it's not nearly there yet, and trends are not destiny.

Capital: Atlanta

House Seats (1963) 8
House Seats (2013) 16

VAP Demographics: 58% White, 27% Black

PVI 2008: R+10
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: R+3

Congressional Representation: I've assigned CH to classes 1 (2018) and 2 (2014). The latter is guaranteed to be in Republican hands (before you ask, no, Jim Martin would not have won there in 2008, not even in the first round). The former, however, would probably have given rise to one of the closest Senate races in the country, no doubt attracting a strong Democratic challenger and a ton of campaign money on both sides. It's hard to predict how such a race would have ultimately gone down, but the closest parallel we have is probably Arizona. Since CH is even more of a swing state than AZ at this point, I can see the Democrat pulling ahead there. As for the House, I fully expect Republicans to gerrymander the hell out of the district map, but I can't see them left with more than 10 seats after the 2018 blue wave, and possibly just 9.

Local Government: Abrams defeats Kemp! In this fictional state, at least. Winning by 5 points, she would even avoid a runoff. It's possibly that the local GOP might have run a stronger candidate than Kemp, but even then, I doubt it would have made a difference. In all likelihood (and setting aside massive butterflies), she would be the governor right now. Democrats would also have a decent chance of flipping at least one of the two legislative houses. Under the current (highly gerrymandered) House map, they come a few seats short of a majority. It's certainly possible that Republicans kept control of both houses, but a split legislature is also fairly plausible.

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

Nope, if you check out the county data it's all doubled up, like on the main page.

Ahhh, bummer