Gallup with some sobering analysis re: Biden’s approval rating

[GAinDC]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

[GAinDC]

Trump and Carter were experiencing a bit of a rebound at this point in their terms due to Covid and the hostage crisis, respectively. But both went on to see their approvals dip.

Of course I'd like to see Biden with higher numbers, but Presidential approval isn't what it used to be. With today's fractured and polarizing media landscape, it's really hard for any President to be above 50% for a long amount of time.

This November, one of two things will become clear: That Biden's low approval ratings made him just as vulnerable as any other one-term President, or that the extraordinary circumstances and stakes in this race mattered more than what they thought of Biden.

Trumps Job Approval on E-Night 2020 per EXITS was 47 % Nationally. Biden isn't even close hitting that Number.
And even in the States Trump lost like WI, PA, MI it was over 45 % and in GA & AZ it was close to 50 %.

Biden is in profound trouble if he doesn't get these Numbers up by Summer.

I think he will

[GAinDC]

This is partly why I wait for the conventions before making any definitive predictions about the election. Obama in 2012 especially had a clean pre-convention approval doldrums and post-convention campaign season approval hype. That doesn't mean Biden is going to have the same approval as Obama come election day, and I do agree approval and vote share are pretty strongly correlated, but we still have a a long time in political terms before we even get to where we can guess how Biden's approval will look in November.

People keep using Obama's approvals when he had a far better approval rating than Biden at this point.

You only pop out of the woodwork to doom

[GAinDC]

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

The economy is not doing better than it was before COVID. Even after the economy returned to full employment there has been basically zero real wage growth. The recent economic news has really weakened Biden's strong economy message. Before it did look like Biden might have an unambiguously strong economy going into November but that looks much less likely now.

What?? Come on now, the economy is still on the right track. Inflation is way down and we’ve only had one quarter of slower economic growth. But isn’t that what we needed for our soft landing??

Anyway, perceptions about the economy are pretty much partisan these days.  If Trump was president with the same economy, every Republican would be going on and on about how great it is.

[GAinDC]

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

The economy is not doing better than it was before COVID. Even after the economy returned to full employment there has been basically zero real wage growth. The recent economic news has really weakened Biden's strong economy message. Before it did look like Biden might have an unambiguously strong economy going into November but that looks much less likely now.

What?? Come on now, the economy is still on the right track. Inflation is way down and we’ve only had one quarter of slower economic growth. But isn’t that what we needed for our soft landing??

Anyway, perceptions about the economy are pretty much partisan these days.  If Trump was president with the same economy, every Republican would be going on and on about how great it is.

Inflation just went up amid a quarter of slow growth. Real wages are down quarter to quarter. There's still full employment however, but we'll see about the next jobs report. The two surveys have been diverging.

If you asked me a month ago I would've said that things were going pretty well but the mood has changed. A staglflationary environment has become much more likely. It's definitely not a particularly great economy, even if it's still fine overall.

I think we should wait until we get more economic data before making those kinds of claims.