Warnock stumping for Biden will help in GA, assuming this trend is real. But I’m not so sure.
Also, there’s only a difference of about 6% percentage points when comparing the 2020 exit poll to the 2024 poll they’re referencing — Trump at 11% with Black Men (2020) compared to 17% now. I realize that kind of swing could matter in a close state like Georgia, but the media acts like a shift at the margins is a realignment. It’s not, and could easily be overcome by Biden doing a couple points better with another group, but I guess it makes an interesting story.
The data shown are for black people as a whole not just black men. If he's winning 17% of black georgians, that probably translates to around 25% of black male voters given the gender voting gap.
Thanks for the clarification. That would still be a relatively minor shift if it happened.
I really believe that if Trump was going to dramatically shift the Black vote, he would have done it already. He’s a known quantity now and doesn’t offer novelty like in 2016 or incumbency like in 2020. This year, I can see a minor shift toward Trump but nothing earth shattering.
