Prediction: Hillary will win Orange County CA (user search)
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  Prediction: Hillary will win Orange County CA (search mode)
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Author Topic: Prediction: Hillary will win Orange County CA  (Read 1264 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: August 20, 2016, 12:59:41 PM »

Thus becoming the first democrat since FDR in 1936 to do so.

OC is very diverse, lot of latinos and Asians. And Trump is anathema to wealthy whites who live in places such as Newport Beach and Laguna Beach.  In 2008 Obama lost the county by just 3 points. Not sure if any OC polls have been done, but I would not be surprised at all if Hillary wins it.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 01:26:20 PM »

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

In 2004 Bush got 59.7% in OC. Amazing how quickly things change.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 01:38:33 PM »

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

Rubio, Kasich, Walker, would have played fairly well in OC.  Given how awful of a candidate Hillary is, I think any one of them would have won OC convincingly, doing better than McCain or Romney.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 01:39:31 PM »

She'll win the county as a whole for sure. As you said, the wealthy whites turned off by Trump combined with the large minority population will deliver the county to Clinton.

How do people think my home city of Newport Beach will vote?

Newport Beach, one of my favorite places in the country.  I think Hillary wins it; I know a lot of wealthy whites in southern cali and other affluent areas who think Trump is utterly insane and unqualified to be President.
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Arbitrage1980
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Posts: 770
« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 01:42:36 PM »

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

OC is shifting rapidly. I'm a Newport Beach resident and 95% of bumper stickers I see are Sanders stickers (yesterday I saw a Bernie bumper sticker on a Porsche). I've literally only seen one Trump sticker, located on the back of a supermarket employee's car (I'm assuming it's a worker at my local supermarket as it's always parked in the same place outside of it every day)

Ok; this is shocking.  I have no idea why wealthy whites would support Bernie, but hey that's just me.  I work in finance in NYC, and bunch of my friends who voted Romney are gonna vote Hillary or Johnson.  I'm a lifelong conservative republican and will vote Johnson.
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