The absentee/early vote thread

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Great news! NC will definitely be down to the wire this year

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

I never claimed it was representative... I pointed out that the trend line seems to favor Clinton.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

wrong.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

10/09/2016 10:04AM

FL Vote-by-Mail (Voted)
Total 28412 votes
REP 13338 (46.94%) | DEM 9659 (33.99%)

Still 12.95% ahead

Romney(October 16th 2012): Rep + 4%
TRUMP (October 9th 2012): Rep + 12.95%

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent..  Republican +4%

sample sizes m'dear

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Nevada is unsettling.

In person voting starts there Saturday. Watch for a huge swing.

Did it start earlier in 2012?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

do not-registered UAF matter in any way?

they are part of the dem/rep-numbers anyway, not?

Cohn is pointing out that there's a difference in how people are registered with the state, and how they identify themselves when a pollster calls.  I believe there are more voters who are registered as unaffiliated (because they didn't bother to enroll) but then identify with their current lean when they are called.  My recollection (maybe I'm wrong) is that a lot of young people are registered unaffiliated, but identify as Democratic.

Yep. And, OTOH, many current R's/conservatives are self-IDing as independents, even though they aren't registered as such. Both just point to a need for a different lens according to whether you're looking at EV data or poll #s.

Yep!  This is the big problem with re-weighing to party ID.  Imagine both things are true.  You have young, independent-registered voters identifying as Democrats.  You also have Republican-registered voters identifying as independent, because they don't like the party.

That means your poll will show as having too many Democrats, and too few Republicans.  It also means your self-identified Independent sample is more Republican than actual, registered Independents.  That's because it's lacking a lot of Democratic-leaning Independents (those young voters who are IDing as Democrats), and includes a lot of registered Republicans (those registered Republicans identifying as Independents).

If this happens, your sample should be more Democratic, and less Republican, than registered voters.  Re-weighting to party ID will mess this up.  Also, because your self-IDed Independents are a lot more Republican than actual Independents, re-weighting to party ID will further skew the sample Republican.

(Sorry, I'm sure y'all know this, just my daily Bill Mitchell antidote)

In Florida it might be the other way round (OBS. it is based just on one poll, might be an outlier).

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Though

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn't surprising. Plenty of Panhandle whites register as Dem despite never voting that way.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Hopefully a sign that the ground game in the cities is running as smoothly as ever. (this is hardly a guarantee of that, however).

Suburban Republicans staying home?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

We've more or less passed the 50k threshold. Great news.