Prediction: Trump's vote % in NYC, Chicago, SF

[JA]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

[JA]

I'd guess about 8% in San Francisco, 11% in Chicago, and 16% in New York City.

Worse than Romney in his home city?

Despite NYC being Trump's home city, he's an exceptionally poor fit. None of the demographics are in his favor. The only reason I doubt he'd face a comparable decline to that of other diverse and educated major cities is the relatively high support he'd likely receive from blue collar Whites for whom his appeal plus the home town effect could be persuasive.