Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[JA]

Holy sh*t it could potentially become a Category 5 if it keeps moving slowly.

Highly unlikely. It just now reached Category 4 status, it has only about 5 hours remaining before landfall, and the pressure isn't dropping as rapidly now. Aside from that, Texas is fortunate that it's making landfall in a low-population area. But the worst affects from this storm will unquestionably be the rainfall, which could reach unimaginable levels.

[JA]

[JA]

Are such summer storms common in the US?

Not  like this.

Yeah, this one's particularly extreme. Such storms have certainly happened many times before in our history, but they're definitely not common.

[JA]

People here in the Jacksonville area don't seem too concerned, at least not yet. But my family and I are ready to evacuate if need be. We've usually gotten pretty lucky here, so I'm hoping our luck continues.

[JA]

I think climate change reduced the amount of hurricanes?

No. Not every year will have more hurricanes than the preceding year(s), but what climate change does is increase is the probability of the number of tropical cyclones developing and their potential strength by producing conditions more favorable for their development. One variable is water temperatures; an increasingly warm climate translates into warmer waters and that is a necessary energy source for tropical cyclone formation. By increasing water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, for example, you not only potentially extend the tropical season, but also provide greater fuel for stronger cyclones. The warmer the water = the greater energy potential. But there are other factors as well, such as wind shear, fronts, and dry/moist atmosphere, which can be affected by changes not only in the climate of the tropics but within the polar regions as well.

[JA]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

Those in the islands don't leave, except tourists and such. People go to local shelters. My friend's young daughter is staying with her family in the Virgin Islands during the storm and they don't seem too concerned, will just be going into their basement.

[JA]

Some pictures out of St. Martin that I screenshot from a video on Twitter.

And here's a video of the storm from Twitter: https://twitter.com/dave1020/status/905404902154887173

[JA]

[JA]

As it currently stands, here in the Jacksonville metro we shouldn't get hit too hard. The winds will probably be similar to what we received last October from Hurricane Matthew. The current projections are sustained winds of 60mph or higher for Jacksonville and for us here in St. Augustine, they should be sustained between 60-80mph. Anything can change, but it's not looking too bad for us.

[JA]

As it currently stands, here in the Jacksonville metro we shouldn't get hit too hard. The winds will probably be similar to what we received last October from Hurricane Matthew. The current projections are sustained winds of 60mph or higher for Jacksonville and for us here in St. Augustine, they should be sustained between 60-80mph. Anything can change, but it's not looking too bad for us.

[JA]

Guys, I gotta say, this storm has gotten me scared.

I know people here in the Jax area who'll be staying in their mobile homes. All of them are lifelong residents. I'm concerned, but not too worried; we're just going to play it safe and evacuate. We stayed in our home in 2004 during those hurricanes, which were pretty scary, and it turned out alright. Hopefully, for our area at least, this turns out alright. I'd be extremely worried if I lived in South Florida though, especially the Miami metro or the Keys.

[JA]

This website is really good for seeing what impacts you will receive from the storm. You can check out your location or other locations using the Euro model (or other models) to see the projected wind gusts, rain, etc...

https://weather.us/forecast/4165565-naples/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

[JA]

I was actually telling my family the other day when this started trending westward that this storm might end up being the Gulf Coast's Matthew, considering it could parallel and just barely touch the coast, but cause a lot of storm surge damage since the Gulf Coast of Florida is even more prone to it.

[JA]

'For first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda'

[JA]

... And Maria is a Category 5 now, shortly before landfall on Dominica.

And heading for the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as a category 5 hurricane. What an absolute disaster for the Virgin Islands in particular after their experience with Irma

[JA]

Dominica's prime minister rescued in midst of Category 5 Hurricane Maria

Click here to view PM Roosevelt Skerrit's Facebook for live updates.

[JA]

The governor of PR issued a final statement before the storm's impact (in English). See it here:

https://www.facebook.com/prinforma/videos/1701327643251959/

This is a very scary and unfortunate situation for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning. I know you have family in PR, so I hope they're alright, Arch. Although Maria is a powerful storm, I'm sure Puerto Ricans are prepared and strong enough to handle it.

[JA]

It's now expected to be a Category 2 Hurricane upon landfall at about 105mph around 7 PM CST. Interestingly, its projected forecast is remarkably close to Hurricane Katrina's.

[JA]

The Weather Channel just had a live video of a waterspout moving onshore in Orange Beach, Alabama and straight into the dense part of the city.