absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

And FYI, the two latest Iowa polls, from Emerson and Loras, both show Clinton dominating the early vote:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

[Ozymandias]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

This is a great map! Very similar to my current thoughts.

Only major change I would make is I would swap Iowa (to lean Rep) and Ohio (to tossup)-- after all, as Ronald Brownstein pointed out on twitter, there's a reason the Clinton campaign held the Jay-Z & Beyonce concert in Ohio, as opposed to a state they really need.

Oh, and one more minor change: Trump cancelling his WI trip tomorrow-- combined w/ Hillary not going there for months-- is I think enough reason to move WI back to solid Dem (though note that Trump's desperate visit to MN instead is NOT reason to move MN away from solid Dem). 

[Ozymandias]

Here's some modeling of the national EV electorate by a Democratic firm:

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  24m24 minutes ago
Noteworthy Early Vote trends among Likely Clinton voters, women and low-propensity voters in our latest SmartShot → http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-30-million-americans-have-early-voted/

[Ozymandias]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

[Ozymandias]

This is a really fascinating Politico piece about how much of the real benefit of concerts to the Clinton campaign involves ticket distribution:

"Ahead of President Barack Obama's appearance with James Taylor, for example, the local operatives handed out tickets across the street from an early voting site in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Voting turnout there jumped 80 percent compared to the previous day, making it the single largest voting day there so far — and bumping up county-wide turnout 16 percent by itself."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-concerts-strategy-230784

[Ozymandias]

Check out this video:

https://twitter.com/seangallitz/status/794944547830853632

Sean Gallitz ‏@seangallitz  1h1 hour ago
*ALMOST* this entire line outside @NCState to vote early just before the 1pm cut off. Everyone in a good mood - pizza is coming.

[Ozymandias]

Politico on FL early voting: Lean Clinton

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

"The stats, however, show that it’s Republicans who are doing more cannibalization. About 22 percent of the Republicans who have so far voted had voted on Election Day in 2012. But only 20 percent of Democrats who have so far voted now voted on Election Day four years ago. Independents are right in between at 21 percent."

[Ozymandias]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

What do you mean by hard data?

I believe that's a reference to internal polling of early voters from both Dems and Reps.

[Ozymandias]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Right, but why schedule the morning rally for FL and the afternoon event for NC, when if you did it the other way you could drive early voting in both places instead of just one?

And as others have noted, going to Reno the day after early voting ends in NV is just as dumb...

[Ozymandias]

Dr. Michael Bitzer ‏@BowTiePolitics  5h5 hours ago
NC absentee voters by party & generation: definitely see unaffiliated voters more Millennial & GenX than partisans



Taniel ‏@Taniel  3m3 minutes ago
Few states provide demographic information like NC's; but this suggests analyses of gap between registered partisans could miss some shifts.

[Ozymandias]

Anyone know how these numbers compare to 2012 AZ early voting?

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  3m3 minutes ago
Ryan Struyk Retweeted The AZ Data Guru
GOP outnumbers Dems by more than 100,000 early votes now in Arizona...

The AZ Data Guru ‏@Garrett_Archer  6m6 minutes ago
11/5 unofficial #earlyvoting totals for #AZ: 1,590,374 ballots received. 40.1% GOP, 33.7% Democrat, 26.2% Other. (#Marico not included)

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  41m41 minutes ago
Yesterday EV in Florida really helped the overall diversity:
Friday:
White: 61.4%
Black: 14.9%
Hispanic: 16.8%
Other: 6.9%
1/2

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  39m39 minutes ago
Overall EV diversity in Florida through Friday:
White: 67.5%
Black: 12.4%
Hispanic: 14.6%

Definitely trending more diverse than 2012.
2/2

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  38m38 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Nate Cohn Retweeted Steve Schale
Florida electorate poised to be more diverse than our poll, or most of our September panelists

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  38m38 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Our final FL poll was 67.4 white, 12.7 black, 14 Hisp. (would have been lower if there hadn't been that hurricane, slowed final reg data)

[Ozymandias]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

The 2012 page looks like it contains numbers at the start of election day in 2012, but not only would there be a lot of ballots received on election day, but some states (I think WA, CA, NY?) allow ballots mailed BY election day to count.

Also, perhaps some states didn't fully report their early vote until after election day.

[Ozymandias]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

I think absentee military ballots may also be part of the missing election-day totals:

"In 2012, more than 46 million voters – almost 36% of the total – cast ballots in some manner other than at a traditional polling place on Election Day, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of state and federal election data. That figure includes 23.3 million people who cast civilian or military absentee ballots, 16.9 million who voted early (that is, in person during a specific period leading up to Election Day) and 6.3 million who mailed in their ballots."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/

EDIT: Not sure what difference is between civilian absentee ballots and people who mailed in their ballots.

[Ozymandias]

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 2.26m Republicans

Why don't these numbers add up to anything close to 100%?

[Ozymandias]

Oh I see it's a typo-- he kept the Democratic numbers on the Republican graph.

[Ozymandias]

Here's correct FL Republican racial/ethnic breakdown:

[Ozymandias]

Ralston's latest update:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

[Ozymandias]

Vote projections for the most Hispanic states (I believe this is overall, not just election day)

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini  1h1 hour ago
Demographic projections for Tuesday's electorate.

[Ozymandias]

Odd - that looks LESS Latino compared to CNN 2012 exit polls in NV. (64% White. 19% Latino.) I had heard that Latino reg is up 2% and voting is up? Pew Research has Latino registered as 17% in 2014... Hm?

Yeah, perhaps I shouldn't have posted that table, since I don't really know the provenance of the model(?) that created it...

[Ozymandias]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

8% third party???

May include those who refused to say who they voted for.

What's weird in a lot of these early vote polls is that they are implying huge third party numbers, way more than I expected.  Does it make sense to you that 8% of early voters in Florida are casting third party ballots?  I would have thought that almost all third party votes would be election day ones and that there would be way less than 8%.  This isn't the first poll that has shown this.

I don't think the missing 8% is all 3rd party vote-- what I've noticed while compiling all the early voting poll results is that very often a few percent won't say who they voted for (listed as "unsure", "none", etc.)

Now why these early voting non-respondents are still kept in the poll instead of being thrown out, I have no idea...

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
Again Afr-Am enthusiasm should not be judged by NC alone: Georgia Afr-Am #earlyovte up +23,859 from 2012, but NC down -65,650 votes

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15m15 minutes ago
FL and LA similar to GA, btw, so something went very wrong in NC

[Ozymandias]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

He's referring to absolute numbers, not relative percentages.

If 50% more people have voted early this year in LA, and blacks are 26% of that vote, then that means comparatively they would have been 39% of the 2012 vote.

[Ozymandias]

I found a handy summary site for several states at Project Newamerica:  "Battleground States of Play"

Here are some interesting plots for Arizona (https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/arizona-state-play)