Another interesting question: if Trump is doing so well in Nassau + Suffolk why is he getting killed by 25 points in the Philadelphia burbs ( Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks counties). The college/non- college white proportion is actually similar (45% in Philly burbs - 42% in Long Island) and the Philly burbs are way whiter (78% vs 67% in 2010).
Is it ethnic differences? Philly burbs are less Irish/Italian or what?
It would mean the Philly suburbs are going to swing 13 points more Democratic while the demographically similar Long Island NYC burbs will swing 7 points more Republican. Weird.
We definitely need some more PA polls to confirm if this is the case, but I increasingly think we're either entering a realignment or this year is the first to display the results of such in full. My current theory is that 2008 was the actual realigning election, but that this year is the first time all the trends from that have become clear.
