European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Mike88]

Yeah, European Parliament is hilarious, having a legislative body that can't propose it's own legislation or control anything executive makes a lot of the claims about EU democracy a hollow joke.

I feel like a solution to the problem of bloating is to introduce the concept of weighted voting, to preserve delegates from minority communities and regions but reduce the number of filler MEP's who have Essenitaly nothing to do* by allowing large countries and regions to appoint fewer MEP's who's vote is weighted more heavily.

*not even backroom backstabbing as outside of a few in leadership positions there's nothing really to gain.

I must disagree. Where else can European countries dump their oldest, loudest and most obnoxious politicians?

Spot on.

[Mike88]

On the same day António Costa leaves his party's leadership, this happens. Interesting...

[Mike88]

Portugal's poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1770575353691451472

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

[Mike88]

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

Not sure about a merge, but a permanent alliance like CDU-CSU in Germany or the Coalition in Australia is a real possibility.

[Mike88]

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

Not sure about a merge, but a permanent alliance like CDU-CSU in Germany or the Coalition in Australia is a real possibility.

why?

Local factors mainly. There are areas of the country where PSD and CDS don't have very good relationships, just look at what happened in Madeira, and a merge would create problems, in my opinion.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Aximage to JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %: (compared with 2019)

31.3% PS (-2.1)
24.8% PSD/CDS/PPM (-3.3)
18.4% CHEGA (+16.9)
  5.9% BE (-3.9)
  5.8% IL (+4.9)
  4.1% CDU (-2.8 )
  3.6% Livre (+1.8 )
  1.8% PAN (-3.3)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (-8.2)

Poll conducted bewteen 12 and 16 April 2024. Polled 805 votes. MoE of 3.40%.

This poll has very weird crosstabs: PS winning the male vote by 12% and AD and PS tied in the female vote; PS is second in the youth vote and AD leading in the Porto metro area, but behind the PS in the rest of the North. But, then again, it's Aximage, so, whatever.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PS and AD head list candidates announced. Former health minister Marta Temido for the PS; TV pundit Sebastião Bugalho for AD.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1782480863772438677

Marta Temido will be head of the PS list for the European Championships

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1782485031195160962

Sebastião Bugalho will be the head of AD's list for the European Elections. CNN Portugal knows that the invitation was made by Luís Montenegro and Sebastião Bugalho's name could be announced this Monday.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Intercampus to CM/Negócios newspapers and CMTV:

Vote share %: (after 17.5% of undecideds are excluded and compared with 2019)

33.4% PS (nc)
28.2% PSD/CDS/PPM (+0.1)
13.0% CHEGA (+11.5)
  7.4% BE (-2.4)
  5.8% Livre (+4.0)
  4.4% IL (+3.5)
  3.3% CDU (-3.6)
  1.3% PAN (-3.8 )
  3.3% Others/Invalid (-9.2)

Poll conducted bewteen 18 and 23 April 2024. Polled 605 votes. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Parties and coalitions on the ballot in Portugal:

Abbreviation; Name; Ideology, European group

ADN - National Democratic Alternative, rightwing, none
BE - Left Bloc, leftwing, GUE/NGL
CH - CHEGA, far-right, ID
E - Rise Up, far-right, none
IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right, Renew
L - Livre, center-left, Greens/EFA
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, left-wing, none
MPT - Earth Party, center-right, EPP
NC - We, the Citizens, center-right, Renew
ND - New Right, rightwing, none
PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left, Greens/EFA
PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing, GUE/NGL
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - AD - Democratic Alliance, center-right, EPP
PS - Socialist Party, center-left, S&D
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left, none
RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic, none
VP - Volt Portugal, center-left, Volt Europe

[Mike88]

Portugal: AD and PS reject TV's proposal for 28 debates.

The two main parties have rejected the networks proposal of 28 one-on-one debates between parties for the EP elections. Both AD and PS say that time for the debates and campaign events don't match and asked networks for a new proposal, plus that 30 minute debates is not a solution. Other parties are criticizing both parties for the rejection of this format.

[Mike88]

Portugal: AD and PS reject TV's proposal for 28 debates.

The two main parties have rejected the networks proposal of 28 one-on-one debates between parties for the EP elections. Both AD and PS say that time for the debates and campaign events don't match and asked networks for a new proposal, plus that 30 minute debates is not a solution. Other parties are criticizing both parties for the rejection of this format.

Debate "feud" resolved: There will be 7 debates and another one with minor parties with no representation.

13 May: PS vs AD vs IL vs Livre (SIC)

15 May: BE vs PAN vs CHEGA vs Livre (RTP1)

17 May: CDU vs BE vs IL vs Livre (TVI)

20 May: CDU vs PAN vs CHEGA vs IL (SIC)

21 May: PS vs AD vs CHEGA vs CDU (RTP1)

24 May: PS vs AD vs BE vs PAN (TVI)

28 May: PS vs AD vs BE vs CDU vs PAN vs Livre vs CHEGA vs IL (RTP1)

30 May: Minor parties debate (RTP1)

[Mike88]

Portuguese EP election voter compass survey by Expresso newspaper.

I got these results:

78% AD
75% PS
71% IL
68% PAN
67% CHEGA
58% Livre
54% BE
45% CDU

[Mike88]

CHEGA's (ID) main candidate, António Tânger Corrêa, goes "cuckoo bananas" and full conspiracy mode in an interview to a major newspaper:

https://twitter.com/glevycordeiro/status/1788896340002455921

For Chega's candidate, who retreads the most bizarre conspiracy theories, it is possible that the Jews were warned about September 11th. Oh! And 90% or 85% of the people who worked at the Twin Towers were Jewish, apparently.

In summary:

- The "Jews" were probably tipped on what would happen on 9/11;
- This because 85-90% of people working in the Twin Towers were Jewish;
- Emmanuel Macron is close to the "New World Order" because he worked for the Rothschild firm;
- Milosevic was actually a "nice guy" but the problem was his wife, adding that women are "complicated";

[Mike88]

Debate "feud" resolved: There will be 7 debates and another one with minor parties with no representation.

13 May: PS vs AD vs IL vs Livre (SIC)

First Portugal debate: Immigration and defense were the main topics.

The first debate for the EP elections in Portugal was held this evening between the head list candidates of PS, AD, IL and Livre, Marta Temido, Sebastião Bugalho, João Cotrim Figueiredo and Francisco Paupério, respectively. The debate started with the immigration situation in Portugal. AD accused the PS of giving up immigration policy to human traffic mafias, with the PS responding that the AD's accusations are "deeply demagogic and insincere". IL said that discussing immigration should not be taboo, accusing parties of using immigration only for political battle. Livre defended humanitarian corridors and inclusion programs in Portugal, pointing to the fiasco of the new border control agency, AIMA. All 4 parties candidates are open for new countries to enter in the Union, pointing that it's a "moral obligation" and an "issue of cohesion". On Defense, Livre says that the EU needs to prepare itself for a possible re-election of Donald Trump and an increase of climate refugees, while AD says that the EU should become a "cornerstone" of NATO and invest in weapons industry. The PS rejected the AD proposal, pointing that weapons are not as much of a priority as housing is. IL focused on Portugal's goal to increase defense spending. The possibility of former PM Costa becoming President of the European Council was also a topic, with only the PS defending this possibility, AD saying it's not the time to discuss it, IL against the idea and Livre saying that their EP group doesn't have a position on the matter.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Duplimétrica-IPESPE to TVI/CNN Portugal:   

Vote share %: (Compared with 2019)

34% PS (+1)
32% PSD/CDS/PPM (+4)
10% CHEGA (+9)
  9% IL (+8)
  3% BE (-7)
  3% CDU (-4)
  3% Livre (+1)
  1% PAN (-4)
  5% Others/Invalid (-8)

Poll conducted bewteen 6 and 13 May 2024. Polled 800 votes. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from UCP-CESOP to RTP/Público newspaper:  

Vote share %: (Compared with 2019)

31% PSD/CDS/PPM (+3), 6/8 seats
30% PS (-3), 6/8
15% CHEGA (+14), 3/4
  6% IL (+5), 1/2
  5% BE (-5), 1
  5% Livre (+3), 1
  5% CDU (-2), 1
  1% PAN (-4), 0
  2% Others/Invalid (-11)

Poll conducted bewteen 13 and 18 May 2024. Polled 965 votes. MoE of 3.20%.

[Mike88]

During a debate yesterday on RTP, CHEGA's main candidate, António Tânger Corrêa, said that the AfD position and Le Pen's withdrawal of support to AfD, is a "game changer", and that CHEGA could leave ID and join ECR after the elections.

However, not sure if this can be taken seriously as Tânger Corrêa is a "trainwreck" of a candidate, so much so that his face isn't even in CHEGA's campaign posters, plus Ventura hasn't reacted yet to this whole controversy.

Also, a new poll was published, but a very weird one:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1793338027940380831

[Mike88]

The campaign in Portugal has been very dull and almost a minor event so far, with the main topic of discussion being the "cheap shots" between AD and PS. The most recent was because of Von der Leyen's visit to Portugal next week.

One party that has been criticized by pundits is Livre. Livre's candidate, Francisco Paupério, is campaigning alone and the national leader, Rui Tavares, has not been present in campaign events, which is raising criticisms towards Tavares. The "problems" started during the primaries: Livre has an open primary system to elect their candidates and as Paupério wasn't Tavares' preferred candidate, in the 2nd round of these primaries, with Paupério seen as the clear favourite, Tavares wanted to end the open primary system and impose a close system in which only party members would be allowed to vote. This created a lot of backlash, the idea was dropped and Paupério won the primaries against Tavares' candidate.