United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Mike88]

George Osborne claims he has inside info the election is being planned for November 14th.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/11/general-election-likely-to-take-place-on-14-november-says-george-osborne

Not sure why it's being so dragged out, if this is true. The result will essentially be a done deal at this point. Whatever keeps the Tories in power for whatever time they have left, I guess.

I think that someone wrote, I believe in the Internation discussion thread, that the "plan" is banking on a Trump's win in the US election and then the Tories would campaign on the "stability card" in face of unprecedented times to win the election. Of course, this has one major risk: Trump could lose and then what? What's your pitch, Tories?

[Mike88]

Why did they put a picture of their January poll?? It doesn't make sense.

[Mike88]

Who is this even for, at this stage?

I think this is directly to the Conservative electorate. Polling and forecasts, not to mention the image this government gives, are so bad for them that they fear the Tory electorate will just skip this election and not vote. So, they need to send "propaganda" saying "look, it's close", "(please) go vote, we still can win this".

[Mike88]

The Postwar norm was that a standard parliament should be four years with the fifth year as a 'reserve'.

Speaking of, today is the 50th anniversary of the February 1974 election.

The famous "Who Governs Britain?" election. And which voters responded, "Not you, Ted."

[Mike88]

The UK needed a CIS type polling company to put the Tories like 3 points ahead of Labour, and in the next day, Sunak would call an election.

[Mike88]

The weather in London today looks gloomy as the Tory's prospects for this election.

[Mike88]

The thread title can be edited now I suppose.

I shall start a new one once a formal announcement is made

No need, in my view. You can use this one and just change the title.

[Mike88]

One possible reason (amongst others) for going now and for the sudden announcement (let’s not call it snap) is to avoid giving Reform time to get a proper campaign together and candidates in place across the country. Won’t change the end result, but a more hastily organised Reform effort might help save the furniture in some places.

Probably, but wanting to end their misery is also a possible reason.

[Mike88]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

[Mike88]

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate. Plus, yeah, there is no time for this kind of process, 40 days until election day.

[Mike88]

Kuenssberg eughh. First time I won't be watching BBC. I will tune in to see the exit poll (because it's tradition) and then I shall switch to Sky.

I believe the exit poll will be, as it has been for some years now, a joint BBC/ITV/Sky thing. So, the exit poll will be same in BBC, ITV and Sky news.