Is there a state that’s going to swing to Biden this year?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yes, and third parties will probably play a role in ensuring there is no uniform shift.

Good candidates for a shift towards Biden are Alaska and states where RFK jr. might tap into the Trump vote a lot, like West Virginia, Kentucky, etc. . Maybe Kansas, Texas but the issue with trends that these are long term trends and if the electorate swings right wing it doesn't necessarily mean they'll continue that trend, but that there might be a larger trend to the left in 2028.

Also Utah and Hawaii are good candidates for reasons stated above.

I also see PA as a possibility given Biden didn't do well in 2020 Philly, and given RFK jr. might tap into rural appalachian Trump vote and that the demographics might favour Biden a bit more, however i have a feeling his urban vote will really crash. And that low returns from Philly basically could still mean Trump takes it.

But PA and AZ are a possibility for a swing left even if Trump is elected.

Missouri and Arkansas i also see a possibility due to ancestral Democrats favouring Trump perhaps going RFK jr. , closing the gap. And likewise Ohio again due to RFK jr. appalachian/ancestral D strength (and the competitive senate race).

Montana & Idaho also a possibility