Discuss. Right now I'm thinking something like this:
Sorry but which colour is which on this map?
Red going more democratic
Blue going more republican
It makes sense because of third parties which means that the leading candidate is more at risk of losing a portion of their margin.
However what i'm not sure off, what are we talking about: raw margin change, a trend.
Because I see 3 maps that equally divide the states between states that will swing R and swing D? Isn't that a trend?
Like because I believe the majority of states will be more Republcian than those in 2020 but relative to the nation, some states might swing less hard R and therefore trend D relative to the nation.
Basically, what are we discussing?
Secondly, this is very hard to do because of the independents that will be a factor. I basically believe every democratic state will swing right by a bit, barring a few exceptions like maybe Hawaii or so. Not because of Trump doing better but because of independents eating into Biden's vote as well turnout dropping which would favour Trump here in the deep blue states.
For trending, i suppose most of the heartland, alaska and appalachians swings left and most of the Acela Corridor, West coast and Rust Belt swings right wing.
