The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

Doesn't relate to early vote/absentee but
LOL David Plouffe overconfident as ever

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/792789574367842304

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet"

Maybe he should remedy some bed-wetters in Atlas

[BoAtlantis]

Doesn't relate to early vote/absentee but
LOL David Plouffe overconfident as ever

https://twitter.com/davidplouffe/status/792789574367842304

"Clinton path to 300+ rock solid. Structure of race not affected by Comey's reckless irresponsibility. Vote and volunteer, don't fret or wet"

Maybe he should remedy some bed-wetters in Atlas

I suppose it's good not to see him trying to pretend only about a firmish firewall, but otherwise he's as useless a metric for what's actually happening as a heavy partisan for anyone is.

Yea it was meant to be only half-serious.

[BoAtlantis]

[BoAtlantis]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

I guess that educated Republicans in those counties are possibly lagging too.

[BoAtlantis]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

[BoAtlantis]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

I just went back and still couldn't find it. But it's not unrealistic to think AA would be somewhat down this year. Hillary definitely is not Obama.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"First, Hispanics now make up almost 13.5% of FL registered voters who have voted.  And it has been fractionally growing every day."

"In fact 50% of the FL Hispanic Democrats and 55% of Hispanic NPAs voted to date have never voted, or only in 1 of last 3 elections"

[BoAtlantis]

[BoAtlantis]

Whether Nate Silver wants to be extra cautious so that we "Don't read too much into the early voting", it does correlate highly with the result.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/01/early-voters-predict-who-wins-this-is-good-news-for-democrats/

[BoAtlantis]

Early voting update from CNN, mostly stuff we know.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html

[BoAtlantis]

If Tom Bonier is right (And I trust he is), it seems that pollsters trimming their samples to "extremely likely" voters end up missing out on a lot of low-propensity voters that tell pollsters they're not likely to vote but did go on to vote. These voters are much more likely to be Democratic.

[BoAtlantis]

Republicans continue to overachieve in NC but so do unaffiliated people.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

http://steveschale.com/

Total Ballots cast: 4,466,624

Total Vote By Mail: 2,168,750(51.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,297,874 (48.6%)

Republicans: 1,798,954 (40.3%)
Democrats: 1,781,498 (39.9%)
NPA: 886,172 (19.8%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

there are still 1,173,799 vote-by-mail ballots sitting out there, and yes, Democrats have more outstanding mail in ballots than Republicans. Unreturned vote-by-mail ballots remains the same as yesterday, looking like this: 41D-35R-24NPA, meaning 82,541 more Democrats have ballots sliding between the couch cushions.

"Secondly, Hispanics are absolutely surging. Almost 14% of the electorate, more than half of Hispanic Dems (51%) and Hispanic NPA (57%) are low propensity, which has led the Dems to a 90k voter lead with unlikely voters. Now 31% of Dem voters are low propensity, compared to 24% of Republicans. It's higher than both with NPAs."

"I've been thinking about the "why Dems aren't ahead" question, and I think the answer may be more structural than obvious. Over the last four years, Democrats have lost about 400k white Dems, many to party switching, and a large number in North Florida. I'm going to explore this question more, but I have a hunch those 12 leads people keep talking about week built, in part, with voters who are not Dems anymore, and probably in the end didn't vote for Obama."