The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

If Trump has a chance to win any of Hillary's firewall state, it's actually NH imo (very independent-thinking, elastic state).

Even NH is extremely unlikely for him but if he does pull it off there, NV can substitute the loss.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/792576880360775680

"If past patterns hold, as Election Day approaches we should see more and more younger people voting early"

[BoAtlantis]

[BoAtlantis]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

[BoAtlantis]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

What state are you referring to?

Sorry, FL

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

"Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k"

Coupled with new polls from Florida today, no bueno.

Now those are some not so great numbers. It's offset a little bit, as he notes after this, that unaffiliated voters in FL this cycle look to be and should be breaking hard to HRC, but that's still not a great number.

wait a minute y'all. as a commentator in Smith's feed said, and Smith acknowledged, 1st Saturday in 12 was also the first dat of EIV. True?

Which is why 2008 is the better comparison. But even 2008 is not an apple to apple comparison because there are much greater unaffiliated # breaking for Hillary this year.

But even beyond that, she needs to be performing better than right now if she wants to win by 1-2%.

[BoAtlantis]

"Percentage of all Vote-by-Mail (VBM) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 =  12.9%
2012 = 9.5%

Percentage of all Early In-Person (EIP) ballots cast by Hispanics:

2016 = 14.2%
2012 = 9.9%"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/an-electionsmith-exclusive-floridas-latest-party-raceethnicity-age-turnout-figures-as-of-this-morning/

As of this morning, some 3.23m of the state’s 12.7m active registered voters have cast Vote-by-Mail or Early In-Person ballots in Florida. So, 25.5% of active voters on the rolls have already turned out to vote in the Sunshine State.

Party Turnout

29.4% of 4.5m active registered Republicans have voted.
27.0% of 4.8m active registered Democrats have voted.
17.6% of 3.0m active registered No Party Affiliates have voted.

Racial/Ethnic Turnout

28.1% of 8.2m active registered Whites have voted.
20.6% of 1.7m active registered Blacks have voted.
21.4% of 2.0m active registered Hispanics have voted.

Age Turnout

41% of the 4.5m voters 60 and older have voted.
25.6% of the 3.3m voters 45-59 have voted.
14.7% of the 2.3m voters 30-44 have voted.
9.5% of the 2.0m voters 18-29 have voted.

[BoAtlantis]

"NV early voting blog updated!
Dem firewall in Clark close to 44,000. Statewide lead above 31,000. A lot like 2012."

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/29/politics/early-voter-data/
Updated 10/30 8AM

Arizona
-GOP up 34K/3.6%.
-In 2012, they were up 62K/9.7%.

Colorado
-Dems up 27K, compared to GOP lead of 19K in 2012.

Georgia
-Turnout among white voters rose by about 3% vs 2012
-Turnout among black voters is down by about 4.5% vs 2012

Florida
-Registered Republicans are ahead by about 13,545 votes, a smaller lead than they had one week ago. -At this point in 2008, registered Republicans had a 44,000-vote advantage

Iowa
-Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by about 39,000 votes. But that's a significant drop from their position at this point in 2012, when they led by 56,000.

Nevada
-Democrats are up by 8.8% today, but were ahead by 9.3% at this time in 2012.

North Carolina
-Democrats have a 15% lead over registered Republicans. This is the smallest lead (as a percent of the vote) Democrats have seen since early voting began October 20.
-black voters are about 23% of the early voting electorate. That number was 29% at this point four years ago.

According to Florida election site, the lead for Republicans' raw votes now is 23,446 as of 10/30 morning.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[BoAtlantis]

Republicans lead over Democrats is not as reliable anymore. Too many NPA this year.

Depends on whom majority of NPA are voting for this year.

[BoAtlantis]

Breakdown of early voting in each state

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/where-early-voting-hints-at-good-news-for-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump/

This article has a lot of nice summary graphs-- thanks for the link

My pleasure

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton          Trump         Clinton       Trump
Already voted     686,000         462,000    56.7%     38.2%
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

Update as of 10/30 on NC

   IN RAW VOTES   AS A PCT.
                      Clinton    Trump       Clinton      Trump
Already voted   878,000   653,000   54.9%   40.8%
Yet to vote   1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%   44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

[BoAtlantis]

Florida early vote, broken out by race/ethnicity. One of these images is reflective of the state's (and America's) diversity.

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

He posted it 4 hours ago, so not sure. If I had to guess, it's probably no.

[BoAtlantis]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

[BoAtlantis]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

Either that or higher % of GOP Latinos are breaking for Hillary, not an unrealistic theory.

[BoAtlantis]

we still don't have numbers about sunday NC SttP turnout, have we?

I don't think we have the final NC numbers, no (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

Michael Bitzer will have it by tomorrow morning.

[BoAtlantis]

According to Tom Bonier, people's self-report about having voted early isn't reliable so you can't take it at face value but...

Early voting:
FL - 36% have voted; HRC leads 54%/37%
NC - 29% have voted; HRC leads 61%/33%

This is based on self-report, I believe.

But even if we were to allow for rooms that more Democrats lied about having voted early, it's safe to say that Hillary is doing fine so far in FL. She's leading, though probably not by 17% like above.

[BoAtlantis]

According to Tom Bonier, people's self-report about having voted early isn't reliable so you can't take it at face value but...

Early voting:
FL - 36% have voted; HRC leads 54%/37%
NC - 29% have voted; HRC leads 61%/33%

This is based on self-report, I believe.

But even if we were to allow for rooms that more Democrats lied about having voted early, it's safe to say that Hillary is doing fine so far in FL. She's leading, though probably not by 17% like above.

Where did you get these numbers?

It's based on self-report from polls

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

"Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent."

"And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted."

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/31/almost-4-million-votes-in-and-8-days-to-go.html

Total Ballots cast:   3,731,646
Total Vote By Mail:  1,963,274 (52.7%)
Total Early Vote:  1,768,372 (47.3%)

And by party:

Republicans:  1,509.467 (40.45%)
Democrats:  1,500,937 (40.22%)
NPA:  721,249 (19.33%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.23% (Margin look familiar)

Really quick, the outstanding mail in ballots are roughly 40D-35R-25NPA, with Democrats having 71,388 more sitting on coffee tables than do Republicans.

Hillsborough:

Democrats come out of the weekend with a roughly 16K partisan advantage, or about 6.5%.  For the Dems, this was boosted by a weekend where they won in-person early vote by 12 points.

I-4

Democrats won the weekend on the I-4 counties by about 9,000 votes (42-34-24) out of 110,000 cast, thanks to a +12.5% in-person early voting advantage.   The big thing this weekend:  a sizable jump in NPA participation: 24% of all votes this weekend coming from NPA.

Duval

Democrats narrowly won the weekend, carrying a 260 vote plurality out of this weekend’s vote-by-mail and in-person early voting.

Here is where the counties stand:

Palm Beach: Weekend: 47-27-24 DEM -- Overall: 49-29-22 DEM (+41,620)
Broward:  Weekend: 57-21-22 DEM -- Overall: 57-23-20 DEM (+112,775)
Miami-Dade: Weekend: 43-29-28 DEM -- Overall: 45-31-24 DEM (+53,518)

"Democratic voter registration advantage is about 200K less than it was in 2012, and about 350K less than it was in 2008.  This in part explains why Republicans are still “ahead” at this point.  But it is important to note that a lot of that decrease comes from voters who switched parties – most of whom hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Carter or Kennedy, and the overall electorate is much more friendly to Democrats.  This electorate could be as much as 7 points more diverse than 2008, which is the reason I think she has a small built-in edge."

But it only works if people vote. Right now, the GOP is ahead of where I thought they would be – albeit not by a lot.  It doesn’t mean Trump or Clinton is winning – nope, it means it is a dog fight for turnout. "

[BoAtlantis]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

[BoAtlantis]

Black vote as % decreased probably because

1) Restricted poll locations produced a slower start
2) Hillary is not Obama

It also doesn't help that higher % of blacks are breaking for Johnson and Stein than in 2012

She will have to do exceptionally well among educated NeverTrump whites to make up the loss.

[BoAtlantis]

Updated NC status

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

[BoAtlantis]

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots

[BoAtlantis]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?

Not sure that's the case. FWIW, those are slightly worse for Dems in each demo compared to the 2012 exit polls (not that that's a perfect model at all). But I guess non-whites might come out stronger closer to/on election day?

I read that Millennials and black voters should start to vote at a higher rate than last week as the Election Day nears. If they're still at the same pace as they were last week, it signals trouble.