absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

FL voters no one talking about---> "other/mixed race"

284K voted early
5.5% share
40D-36NPA-24R
31.2% no voting history
57% low propensity

[BoAtlantis]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

He adds

"One more. Orange County Florida is now at 73% of its entire 2012 POTUS turnout.
Roughly 467K 2012 votes.
Over 343K have voted so far in 2016"

[BoAtlantis]

We won't be getting Clark numbers tonight, per Ralston. Wonder if we'll get anything from Washoe.

That's the bad news but the good news is below.

[BoAtlantis]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

He just clarified that this is for low propensity voters.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

I told you guys polls would miss hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans. I've been saying it for months. You are now seeing it come to fruition.

Yup see below.

https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794728475307413505

Non-bilingual polls consistently underestimate Latinos. Polling industry is in crisis if they don't rectify their English-only method.

There is a reason Latino Decision is more accurate.

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

57,000 voted as of 10 PM.
Now we wait for the tallies...
Dems could match 71K edge at end of 2012 early voting after this turnout tonight.

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters

I wonder whose GOTV efforts is making that happen

lol I know

I'll be sorely disappointed if NC goes red even if Hillary wins. NC is more than just a matter of 15 EV to me. It's a matter of flushing Republicans in the state down the toilet. Democrats need to send a message this year.

[BoAtlantis]

"So far, 63% of the people with a >98% chance of voting have turned out. Our model doesn't seem like it has a great grasp on 20 v 50%"

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794910680197513216

"Trump announced on stage that he is going to go to Minnesota before Election Day"

Trump should also visit DC, CA, NY while he's at it.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/



"Democrats have hit their same totals from four years ago on this same day, but registered Republicans are 13.8 percent ahead of their same-day 2012 totals and registered unaffiliated voters are 43.4 percent ahead of their same day totals--the notably story of North Carolina's early voting."

"In terms of voters' race in absentee NC voting, whites continue their 72 percent of the ballots cast, while black voters are 22 percent and all other races are at 7 percent of the ballots cast:"

"Black voters have been making up their deficit from four years ago, now down only 8 percent from their 2012 same-day numbers (down 59,200 ballots), with white voters up 19 percent and all other races up 53 percent.  This all other races category could be something to watch with their dramatic rise. "

[BoAtlantis]

So black votes kinda caught up in NC but also above and beyond their lagging numbers, the over-performance of whites in % is probably the reason why black votes % look way more down than it looks.

Raw # wise, Bitzer says they're down 8% from their same-day totals in 2012, not exactly earth-shatteringly disappointing numbers, considering voting restrictions, after-hurricane effects and the fact that Hillary isn't Obama.

If Hillary carries NC, one way to reconcile is that we're underestimating significant % of educated whites among unaffiliated that are NeverTrumpers and Republicans over-performance is partially due to Dixiecrats party switch.

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"Example of down-ballot impact of what happened Fri in Vegas:
Dems added 4K voters to lead in #nv04. 4K! @RepHardy can't beat the math there."

[BoAtlantis]

I know it's a biased source but here is Robby Mook.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/campaign-trump-clinton.html?ref=politics

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there."

[BoAtlantis]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

[BoAtlantis]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

But I thought early voting turnout in Democratic counties in Ohio had collapsed?!?!?! Oh wait just the bed wetters again.

Absentee ballots being down in those counties seems to be partially because Democrats have shifted more to in-person voting.

[BoAtlantis]

I very well could be wrong, but considering that the big Democratic counties in Ohio are making up a larger share of the early vote than they usually do, does this mean that republican early voting is low in their Ohio counties?

That's what some of us have theorized.

I think it was BuckeyeNut who mentioned that early voting numbers in big cities like Cleveland, Columbus are up from 2012 but the numbers in Cuyahoga, Franklin etc. are down.

Kasich Republicans in those counties may be rejecting Trump in higher numbers than we think.

[BoAtlantis]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Here's my current map of things, adding polling, EV, and my view of the race together:

This is a great map! Very similar to my current thoughts.

Only major change I would make is I would swap Iowa (to lean Rep) and Ohio (to tossup)-- after all, as Ronald Brownstein pointed out on twitter, there's a reason the Clinton campaign held the Jay-Z & Beyonce concert in Ohio, as opposed to a state they really need.

Oh, and one more minor change: Trump cancelling his WI trip tomorrow-- combined w/ Hillary not going there for months-- is I think enough reason to move WI back to solid Dem (though note that Trump's desperate visit to MN instead is NOT reason to move MN away from solid Dem). 

I think he's just throwing a Hail Mary at this point.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/794912235399344128

States Trump is set to hit in the final 3 days (so far): FL NC NV CO IA WI MI PA NC NH MN
Clinton: PA FL OH NH

[BoAtlantis]

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 2.27m Democrats Who Have Early Voted

[BoAtlantis]

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 1.1m NPAs

[BoAtlantis]

Oh I see it's a typo-- he kept the Democratic numbers on the Republican graph.

Yea I think it's a typo.

[BoAtlantis]

Here's correct FL Republican racial/ethnic breakdown:

Was just about to post that, thanks

[BoAtlantis]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

[BoAtlantis]

Broward County Turnout Down Today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795074779426541568

Turnout was down in most of the state today

When's the last day for EV in FL?

IIRC someone mentioned today is the last day, and for some counties, tomorrow.