Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when? (user search)
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  Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when?  (Read 5826 times)
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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Posts: 11,445
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« on: October 14, 2016, 04:40:19 AM »

Hello Smiley
I'm probably a couple months late, but I thought that as an Israeli who closely follows our political system, my opinion may be a bit useful in this. I'll address two issues:

1. First, about a peace agreement with the Palestinians, I believe that this is the only possible way for the survival of zionism and Israel as a Jewish and Democratic state. And why? Because annexing the Palestinian territories can only result in either a state of two nationalities, with Arabs and Jews roughly equal, or in a Jewish appartehide state. And this CANNOT happen. I agree with the current Labour and Yesh Atid narrative about this- a peace agreement won't be marriage, it will be divorce, painful and bitter where both sides have to compromoise. In short, I believe that the compromises the Palestinians will absolutely have to make are those: stop demanding this "right of return" to children and grandchildren of Palestinian exiles, because it removes the only incentive for Israel to actually do this agreement (the survival of a state with a strong Jewish majority). Agreeing to an Israeli force in the Jordan Valley. And agreeing to sternly deal with any terrorist group which doesn't disarm or risk military intervention if these groups threaten Israel (especially in areas close to Tel Aviv and the Ben Gurion airport, where the Palestinians will have to keep strong security to prevent any threat to this vein of Israeli economy and tourism).
Meanwhile, Israel will also have to compromise: Agreeing on the splitting of Jerusalem (the eastern part is useless, and peace is more important than symbolism). Forsaking this foolish demand that Fatah recognizes Israel as the Jewish state immediately, since it's useless and serves currently as a way for Netanyahu to slyly strip any responsibility from him. And, finally, both sides will have to agree on swapping territories. Israel will give the Palestinians some territories, perhaps including Palestinian villages, inside its current borders, in exchange for settlements which simply cannot be vacated like Ariel, Gush Etzion etc. But the more we wait, the more of these settlements become unvacateable and this is very worrying and a big reason to get the Jewish Home party out of the government.

2. As for who can replace Netanyahu... Unfourtunately, this is very hard. Netanyahu is sly and a political mastermind, but in my opinion, he's ready to reduce the country to ashes if he can be the king of the ashes. I'm exaggarating, but if you want me to give an example I can do it.
Now, as to the people who want to replace Netanyahu: from the right, the Jewish Home's Naftali Bennett wants to, but Netanyahu completely outplayed him in recent years so it'll be very hard for him, and Lieberman cannot because of all the corruption allegations that tarnished him. I could see a credible challenge from within the Likud, but it would take basically a coup where his challengers (Ya'alon, Sa'ar, Yisrael Katz etc) and many politicians from within the party cooperate to prevent Netanyahu from playing his dirty tricks like early Primaries.
From the center, Yair Lapid and Yesh Atid look right now like the strongest contenders to replace him but it will be very hard for them to succeed. Lapid is a smart politician, but I suspect that the more he panders to the right (which he does right now), the more votes from the left and center he will lose.
From the left, there's a real problem in the Israeli democracy. "Leftist" is now almost a slur word in many places in the country, which is a direct result of Netanyahu's cynicism and willingless to burn everything down to keep his seat, including delegitimizing a whole political wing. Isaac Herzog only added to it by being a horrible candidate, basically our Jeb Bush, in a year when the Israeli public was actually ready for change. Many people in the poorer areas of the country like the north and the south were ready to vote Labour, but the percieved weakness of Herzog in national security caused them to wet their pants and vote Likud. The fact is that if they ran a former general or someone like Erel Margalit in 2015, the Labour would likely control the government right now. So yeah, Herzog is unelectable, Yachimovitch is too purely ideological and cannot win either, and Perez is like a male Tzipi Livni. I'm not even sure a former general like Ganz can save the Labour right now, but it's likely their only chance to be real contenders next election.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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*****
Posts: 11,445
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 05:40:51 AM »

Great. Someone to occupy the middle ground between me and David\Danny!

Anyway as I said BB will not be replaced through electoral means (that hardly ever happens in Israeli politics), but his criminal investigations might be his downfall. SCoJ gave a writ nisi to the 'attorney general' to come and explain why despite the mounting evidence (one of the Panama bank accounts was traced to BB jr. with millions in it) he decided not to conduct a criminal investigation.
This will play out real fast, as the evidence are quite strong we might see a snap election soon.
Hm. Interesting, didn't think that it was that severe. And we should probably change the term "snap elections" to "normal elections" and the once in four years elections to "finished-term elections".
I'm not sure who will I vote for in these elections. If there will be no viable alternative to the Likud which isn't named "Yair Lapid" I may just vote for Meretz purely because of the fact that they're the only ones actively fighting for secularism and lgbt rights.

Out of curiousity, what do you think would be the official reason for the snap elections? Maybe the Sabbath train business will re-emerge?
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,445
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 06:29:15 AM »

Great. Someone to occupy the middle ground between me and David\Danny!

Anyway as I said BB will not be replaced through electoral means (that hardly ever happens in Israeli politics), but his criminal investigations might be his downfall. SCoJ gave a writ nisi to the 'attorney general' to come and explain why despite the mounting evidence (one of the Panama bank accounts was traced to BB jr. with millions in it) he decided not to conduct a criminal investigation.
This will play out real fast, as the evidence are quite strong we might see a snap election soon.
Hm. Interesting, didn't think that it was that severe. And we should probably change the term "snap elections" to "normal elections" and the once in four years elections to "finished-term elections".
I'm not sure who will I vote for in these elections. If there will be no viable alternative to the Likud which isn't named "Yair Lapid" I may just vote for Meretz purely because of the fact that they're the only ones actively fighting for secularism and lgbt rights.

Out of curiousity, what do you think would be the official reason for the snap elections? Maybe the Sabbath train business will re-emerge?
Reason de dicto or de re? Probably some PR crisis to blow the government (might be Amona right now), the honest reason is to put pressure on the legal system not to prosecute a reelected PM.

Yeah, the official reason. Amona could be a good way to get the Jewish Home to quit, yeah. But this government served for less than two years- maybe I'm placing too much faith in the Israeli public, but wouldn't people just lose faith in Bibi after three consecutive elections in less than 5 years?
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,445
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2016, 04:11:20 PM »

On another note, do you think that there is any chance of the Haredim and Jewish Home not being part of a functioning government? In my opinion, it can only happen 1. Without Bibi and 2. With one of the major parties (Likud and Labour or Likud and Yesh Atid) weaker than the winner's party but still strong enough to form a unity government with centrist parties. It seems to me, increasingly, that a majority of Israelis want the Rabbinate out of their lives, supports gay rights, etc. It's just not the main issue for people yet, but that train business got close.
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