Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.

Generating something of this nature in parts of the Baltics (Narva, Daugavpils, etc.) would, actually, be much easier than in Donetsk. Population there uniformly Russian or Russian-speaking (up to 95% in Narva), big chunk of it Russian citizens (but very long-term resident), with commercial interests overwhelmingly tying them to Russia. And those with local citizenship largely vote for Russian parties - and are, mainly, unhappy that these are too moderate. If Putin decides to generate unrest there tomorrow, the day after tomorrow there will be riots all over.

[ag]

Disaster in Odessa...

[ag]

This looks like an unmitigated disaster. There is not enough information to know what happened so far, but many are dead. Besides being a disaster in and by itself (and, whatever those people were doing, their death IS a disaster), it gives Russia pretext it needed to invade the South.

It will be really bad.

[ag]

Lots of conflicting news on both sides. Here is what seems plausible.

Today there was a pro-Ukrainian march - actually, much of it were the football fans (there was a visiting team from Kharkiv today in town - football fans all over the Ukraine, even in Donetsk, have come out strongly against Russia), though there were also some other pro-Ukrainian activists. The march was attacked, there was shooting (seems to be evidence for pro-Russian snipers in the streets).  At that point pro-Ukrainian reinforcements arrived and the crowd attacked the pro-Russian camp in front of the trade-union building. Some of the people in the camp retreated into the union building and the sides were exchanging shots and Molotov cocktails - apparently, and unfortunately, mostly the latter. Well, unsurprisingly the building caught fire. 31 dead are the result of that fire (they initially said 38), and a few others are from clashes elsewhere in the city - likely over 40 victims. Several hundred wounded, some of them badly.

Whatever happened, but, obviously, this is a big fig-up by the police and the authorities in general. They should have done a better job separating the sides and they should have brought the fire-fighting equipment faster. Well, we know Ukrainian state is inefficient, but, in this case, too much depended on doing the job right - whatever the Russian provocations.

Anyways, I guess, some of the calls here for ordinary Ukrainians to start resisting have found a response. Civilians are starting to fight back - with, unfortunately, predictable results. There will be many dead, I am afraid.

Honestly, would have made a lot more sense to have concentrated some major NATO troops along Russian borders some time ago - none of this would have happened.

[ag]

Tomorrow there will be another crisis: in Crimea. Tomorrow the Tartars were supposed to have their annual spring festival. Today, Dzhemilev, who was planning to attend, was not allowed to enter Crimea. Consequently, the Tartars canceled the celebration and tomorrow are planning to go collectively to the border checkpoint instead. There will be tens of thousands of them at the checkpoint, most likely. I do not know what is going to happen.

[ag]

It took 40 min for the fire trucks to arrive, another 20 min for them to enter the building.

Nasty business.

[ag]

Today thousands of Tartars came to the checkpoint to greet Mustafa Dzhemilev. They broke through the Russian checkpoint and met him in the "neutral" zone. Dzhemilev said that, for the moment, they are sticking to non-violence: he did not try to cross with the crowd (there were, probably, enough of them to swamp the checkpoint - but there would have been man victims). The Russian government is threatening participants with prosecution.

I think, this year we have a perfect candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize: if they do not give it to Mustafa Dzhemilev, they will be in the wrong.

[ag]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.

[ag]

Full on civil war will probably start after Russia wins the Donesk referendum.

You realize, I hope, that the "Donetsk referendum" is being run without electoral rolls, without cooperation of local electoral commissions in most places and not according to any law (Ukrainian or Russian), by people who self-declared themselves electoral authorities.

Does not every electoral authority declare itself as such, in a way, though ? I mean if nobody challenges them, are they not de facto an authority ?

1. No, electoral authorities generally are appointed using some ñegal procedure.

2. They are not challenged in this case only by themselves. Nobody outside the semi- unknown world of pro-russian forces in the region (or, possibly, Russia) recognizes them - or, really, knows who they are.

[ag]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

What prompted this?

I've barely said anything on Ukraine in a while other than rather bland analysis. I don't really like either side though I won't go in depth again.

Actually, as somebody who generally detests your views, I have to say that in this case you were reasonable.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

[ag]

Please, Peter, Afleich, would it be possible to give death points to Snowstalker when he's being a pro Russian sage, thanks. Maybe he will finally be muted.

I will now report every Snowstalker's posts when he will be disgusting with the Ukrainians.

Why do so many people on this forums have this perception that disagreeing with them is somehow or should be an infractable/banable offense? I mean it's bad enough how many people practically have the entire forum on ignore spare a few people who agree with them on everything.

I have never reported a post, but I will do right now. Simply because I believe some disgusting posts towards Ukrainians, people who suffer from this folk of alcoholic homophobes, shouldn't be the victimes of the sage-master Putin lover.

Leave him alone. He has, actually, been moderately reasonable here - a lot better than on Venezuela, say. There has not been anything outright offensive that I noticed - and I have been the main "banderovets" here.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

He is pretending he is doing things willingly - he is not doing them. They have not signed a shred of paper till now. Kazakhs, actually, do not mind a Customs Union with Russia - they have no chance for one with EU, anyway. But they want their terms to be considered - and they drive a good bargain. But the Kazakhs are very cognizant of the fact, that many in Russia think of the bulk of Kazakhstan as Southern Siberia, and they are quite proactive in fighting it - one case where being a dictatorship helps.

[ag]

Though I will disagree on what Putin will pursue next after he swallows Donbass; he won't go west immediately. You all may be underestimating the importance of the resource-rich and, in all cases except Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, fairly pro-Moscow governments which will probably end up as part of Putin's "Union State" thing in Central Asia. If he's to annex Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan he'll have to act before they fall entirely in China's sphere.

There is a complication there. A) Russia only borders on Kazakhstan. B) If the "polite people" show up in Kazakhstan they will be arrested and/or killed within hours. Kazakhstan is a proper dictatorship, if somewhat benevolent. And it has been given warning. Apparently, security services in northern Kazakhstan are super-vigilant already, taking care of shadowing visitors from Russia.

Isn't Nazarbayev going willing-ish-ly in exchange for getting to keep his control over Kazakhstan? It's already part of a customs union with Russia and they've repeatedly declared their intent to be one of the inaugural nations of the Eurasian Union when it forms in 2015 (with Russia and Belarus).

I think he has no issue with being a vassal state, but he wants to keep the control of his country.

Vassal? Oh, he would have an issue with that. But he is not being a vassal.

[ag]

Russia has suspended a 2001 agreement on mutual military inspections with Lithuania, the defense ministry said on Monday, amid growing worries in the Baltic region over Moscow's assertiveness in Ukraine.

Under their agreement, Lithuania could inspect forces in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that is the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet, while Russia could do likewise with the Lithuanian military.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-ukraine-crisis-lithuania-russia-idUSBREA440I020140505

inb4 ag states that this is the end of the world as we know it.

This by itself? No. But the end of the world is nigh, this is just another sign. And I am dead serious.

[ag]

Russia says that the Donetsk independence referendum should be postponed and that they may recognize the results of the Ukrainian presidential election.

OMG, what does it mean? Is Putin trying to lull is into a false sense of security while he's prepping for a nuclear strike against America?

You may think you are joking, but you are, likely, right. Putin's words, historically, have notable inverse correlation with his plans. Note, that ue has done exactly NOTHING to show that his new mood is more than words. Troops are still where they were, the "referendum-organizers" still claim it is on, active fighting still continues. Beleiving Putin's reasonableness is not a smart thing to do

[ag]

No mention of the "referendum" results?  96% for the separatists in Luhansk, only 90% in Donetsk...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia

In related news, the separate referendum was held in Moscow on the future of Vladimir Putin. In a stunning result, 99% of the 98.6% of the voters who turned out, voted for his immediate castration. It is of interest, that the Gagarin district precinct, where Mr. Putin himself votes, showed a 100% turnout with 100% voting for castration.

[ag]

They are perfectly believable... seeing as the only people voting were probably fans of the whole thing or feared for their safety if they voted otherwise. Wouldn't surprise me if they softened the result even. Of course the turnout numbers are BS.

Right. Like in Crimea the would-be No voters chose not to vote at all because they saw the referendum as illegitimate. The difference is that in Crimea, Yes would have won anyway, but here that surely wouldn't be the case.

All numbers seem to be bs. It seems that the percentages were written first and the vote numbers added later. And a few other things. Apparently (I did not check, just copying from people whom I trust):

1. The first numbers, which appeared 2.5 hours after the "polls closed", had percentages essentially identical to the final results (even though, because they were only able to open a few polling places, some of these, if the vote numbers are right, should have had well over 30 thousand votes - each).

2. There are no detailed results, of course, just the final protocol with the sums: one for Donetsk and one for Luhansk. At least, the Luhansk one has been posted on the web. In it

a.   the number of ballots issued to polling places and the number of eligible voters coincide (that is, they knew exactly where each voter was going - even though most regular polling places were closed, and others were hastily arranged)

b. the number of ballots issued to voters is exactly 75.2000% of the number in (a) (which would be the case, if they simply multiplied the number in (a) by 75.2% and rounded to the nearest integer - but would be very unlikely if they really counted the number of votes cast and then rounded the percentages

c. the number of ballots found in the ballot boxes is exactly equal to the number of ballots issued to voters (nobody took the ballot home, etc.)

d. the share of invalid ballots (0.74% in both Luhansk and Donetsk) is, actually, exactly 0.7400% of total ballots cast (again, what you would get if you multiply the number in (b) by 0.74% and round to the nearest integer, but highly unlikely if you actually count the ballots.

e. the number of votes in favor of independence is, once again, 96.2000% - same thing, they first decided on the percentages and than multiplied the number in (b) by that, rounding to the nearest integer, and never really counted any votes.

Any more questions?

Details (in Russian) here

http://barouh.livejournal.com/419297.html

[ag]

On Sunday, may 18th, it will 70 years of the deportation of Crimean Tartars. Every year they organize a bunch of commemorative events during the 17th and the 18th, culminating in a large demonstration on the 18th. Today the de facto Crimean authorities issued a decree prohibiting all public meetings until June 6th. Officially this is done because of the "situation in the SE of Ukraine". Note, that they have just had massive public meetings on May 1 (Labor Day), May 9 (Victory Day) and are resuming such events in time for the Celebration of the Russian Culture in June - situation in SE Ukraine notwithstanding.

Large numbers of police detention cars have, apparently, been brought into Crimea from Russia.

The Majlis is calling on everybody to find a "legal" way out. They are insisting on non-violence. Is anybody EVER going to notice those who are preaching non-violence, or do they have to start exploding on the Moscow metro for somebody to pay attention?

[ag]

Today in Cerkasy region a referendum on attaching the Kuban (part of Russia, which includes, for instance, the now famous Sochi) to Cerkasy (and Ukraine) was conducted. In a number of voting places opened in different parts of Cerkasy, voters could cast their ballots for themselves, their relatives, or their pets. The ballot papers explicitly stated that "incorrectly filled out ballots shall be considered invalid". According to the vote organizers, the turnout by 4 PM has reached 98%. The organizers are expecting that the final tally will show 140% voting for unification of Cerkasy and Kuban.

<seen in Pravda Ukrainy">

 

[ag]

This Sunday a referendum on annexation of Rostov-on-Don was conducted in Odessa. Long lines of voters were observed in front of the polling booths. According to organizers, 146% of the participants voted in favor of incorporation of Rostov into Odessa.

http://dumskaya.net/news/odessity-proveli-referendum-o-prisoedinenii-rost-035808/

[ag]

I think ag finally lost it.

I am just translating the news from Ukrainian sites And those "referendums" were actually "real" - as real as those in Donetsk and Luhansk, I mean. That is, they had polling stations, ballots and votes - and even lines of those wishing to vote.  Such is the Ukrainian sense of humor these days

[ag]

Big nasty battle in Donetsk. Likely hundreds dead. Details are sketchy, but, it seems, both sides agree on the following. In the morning "separatists" tried to take over the Donetsk Airport. The Ukrainian troops there first stepped aside - and called for reinforcements. Those came in: with a vengeance. Seems like a very large force, aircraft, helicopters, artillery (?), etc. etc. Also seems like this time they really meant it: both sides confirm huge losses for their opponents (they are speaking of, at least, a hundred fighters dead).  There are also some casualties among the civilians. There has been shooting near the Donetsk main train station and pictures of civilian dead have been all over the web. Pushilin, the "Donetsk President" has desperately called for Russian help at a press conference - and might have later fled. Girkin, the "Donetsk Commander-in-Chief" has acknowledge a very badly planned operation by his side at the airport - and especially blamed failure to disengage in time. It is not clear to which extent the operation is localized within the city, or to which extent it is a major attempt to take back Donetsk. Also, there was further action in Mariupol, where the local "Donetsk Republic" offices were attacked by the government.

This is very nasty, though, of course, not very unexpected. Just hope, it is not used as pretext to send Russian troops in. Otherwise, it might be evidence that the outgoing Turchinov administration is taking the blame on itself, trying to clean up the issue before Poroshenko is inaugurated, so that he could start from a clean slate (apparently, Turchinov has said that he will only stay the parliamentary speaker through September and will then leave politics for good - so he may be willing to fall on the sword for the Fatherland). Then, again, Poroshenko said today that the "anti-terrorist operation should take hours, not months" - whether this was an order, or was taken for one, is a legitimate question.

[ag]

Just to make my point clear. I am fully on the Ukrainian side here. However, everything I know suggests that Ukrainian army is unsuitable for and incapable of proper peace-making operations in civilian areas. Even if they try to avoid civilian casualties (and, at this point, they may be too enraged to much try - there have been several fairly high profile massacres of Ukrainian patrols/units by the "Donetsk Republic" forces recently), there are bound to be fairly heavy civilian casualties. The use of artillery and aircraft in an urban setting is always dangerous.

So, while I have no doubt that overall the blame here squarely lies with the government of Russia, I can only hope - and that hope is slight, frankly - that Ukrainian action is not the immediate reason for a major humanitarian disaster.   There has been a lot of amateurishness here, but at some point, there also has to be responsibility. A clear analysis will have to be undertaken and at least some of those on the Ukrainian side must be held responsible, no matter how painful (I, of course, have no hope about the Russian side). Anything else would be a bad start for the Poroshenko administration.

[ag]

No one is doubting your loyalties, ag. I believe this insurrection, aided by the "polite people", should be stopped at all costs.

We are long past polite people here. The so called DPR and LPR folk are anything but polite. Hell, yesterday Girkin, the DPR "Commander in Chief" published his first official execution order (they shot two of their own, apparently, for marauding - the order was issued post factum, apparently). There have been serious casualties on both sides even before yesterday (including a recent case of, apparently, murdering some Ukrainian soldiers they had captured).

Still, while I really want Ukraine to prevail, I also want it not too loose its own moral authority. They should not be like the Russians in Chechnya.  It is tough to retain humanity in war, but it has to be done. Especially because they want to retain and/or restore the loyalty of the civilians in the area.