How will the Trumpster do among Hispanics?

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There will be some variation geographically and by community, but, in general, very poorly. Between 15 and 20% would be my guess.

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Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

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Do not forget that there is such a thing as Spanish-language media. The more working-class Hispanics will also get a greater proportion of their news and commentary from Jorge Ramos.

On top of the fact that working-class Hispanics are probably the most Democratic-leaning part of the Hispanic electorate.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

That's why I said 30+%. Only a small improvement compared to Romney.

I suggest you go out campaigning door to door in a working-class Hispanic neighborhood. You might be somewhat quickly disabused.

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Obama has never been beloved by Hispanics - if anything he was, and is, mildly distrusted (his deportation records are not viewed favorable at all). It is just that, increasingly, even a generic Republican is viewed as an outright hostile option.

Romney was not basing his campaign on an anti-Hispanic prejudice. His self-deportaiton nonsense was just an awkward moment in the campaign and he never showed any gusto in pushing it. He was not viewed as any more hostile than just a generic Republican.

Trump is something else here. With his comments he has gone far beyond the anti-migrant rhetoric. He is widely perceived as somebody who is basing his entire campaign on mobilizing anti-Hispanic prejudice.  He is already pretty much poisonous in the community. We are at a point where they are about to start scaring kids with the guy´s name. Those comments about Mexican rapists ("and some decent men") will not be forgotten or forgiven. I am pretty damn sure they will be on the Spanish-language news continuously till the GE day.

Add to this, that he is running a pretty ruthless primary campaign against not merely a Mexican (Jeb Bush) but also two Cubans (Cruz and Rubio). Those funny anti-Canadian comments are very easy to interpret as something else. Few Hispanic people will believe it is anything other than a dog whistle. If somebody as far removed from things Hispanic as Ted Cruz can be treated like this, it basically means that not even a Cuban is safe anymore: no matter how white he is, or how much of a conservative patriotic American he is. Cubans have been the stronghold of Hispanic Republicanism and he is making even them feel the pressure. Of course, Cubans will stay more Republican than others even if Trump is nominated, but there will be damage done even in that quarter.

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Obama has never been beloved by Hispanics - if anything he was, and is, mildly distrusted (his deportation records are not viewed favorable at all). It is just that, increasingly, even a generic Republican is viewed as an outright hostile option.

Romney was not basing his campaign on an anti-Hispanic prejudice. His self-deportaiton nonsense was just an awkward moment in the campaign and he never showed any gusto in pushing it. He was not viewed as any more hostile than just a generic Republican.

Trump is something else here. With his comments he has gone far beyond the anti-migrant rhetoric. He is widely perceived as somebody who is basing his entire campaign on mobilizing anti-Hispanic prejudice.  He is already pretty much poisonous in the community. We are at a point where they are about to start scaring kids with the guy´s name. Those comments about Mexican rapists ("and some decent men") will not be forgotten or forgiven. I am pretty damn sure they will be on the Spanish-language news continuously till the GE day.

Add to this, that he is running a pretty ruthless primary campaign against not merely a Mexican (Jeb Bush) but also two Cubans (Cruz and Rubio). Those funny anti-Canadian comments are very easy to interpret as something else. Few Hispanic people will believe it is anything other than a dog whistle. If somebody as far removed from things Hispanic as Ted Cruz can be treated like this, it basically means that not even a Cuban is safe anymore: no matter how white he is, or how much of a conservative patriotic American he is. Cubans have been the stronghold of Hispanic Republicanism and he is making even them feel the pressure. Of course, Cubans will stay more Republican than others even if Trump is nominated, but there will be damage done even in that quarter.

I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

Aside from the fact that I do not think much of Trump economic policies (I do not believe, he has seriously thought of any), expecting to find many Hispanics who would think that voting for Trump is in their interest is like expecting Jews to support Henry Ford back in the 1920s (no matter how many Jews he employed in his plants). 

Mind it, I do not even think that Trump is personally particularly anti-Hispanic. He is a good marketer, and he figured out that there is a market in the US for a fascist demagogue. So, he created a product, and he is selling it right now. He may very well attract to Republican primaries enough people who like that particular product. Unlike Ford, he is not likely to be sincere in his prejudice: fascism is but a campaign tool for him. But, unfortunately, it has requried him to seriously offend a lot of people who are inessential in the primary. And certain things are rarely forgiven.

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I think you are projecting your wishes. But that's OK.

In the end, the people will vote in their best interest. If they think they will be better served by a Democrat, they will vote Democrat. But TRUMP's economic policies will offer a real alternative.

Bottom line, we need to see.

You're trolling. It's as if you are saying that European Muslims could be inclined to vote for radical right-wing parties because their economic agenda might fit the needs of working-class people. Even if that would truly be the case, you're ignoring the fact that these parties derive their entire popularity from their anti-Muslim stance -- so of course Muslims are not going to vote for these parties. Similarly, Trump has become popular by exploiting anti-immigration sentiments, more specifically negative sentiments related to Hispanic immigrants. You don't really have to be an Einstein to know that this has turned off most Hispanics to the point that many of them will be likely to vote for anyone but Trump, regardless of Trump's economic views. So of course Trump is less popular than Romney among Hispanics.

My argument is that those hispanics who are offended by TRUMP's talk are already not likely to vote Pub, so let's try to avoid counting them twice.

Hispanics who voted Romney will probably vote TRUMP this time.

Not at all. Romney was never perceived as basing his campaign on being anti-Hispanic. Trump is. There was a way of interpreting what Romney was saying as merely being "against illegal immigrants". In Trump's case one has to really want to vote Trump to interpret it that way. Trump is hurting precisely with the part of the Hispanic population that has historically been least hostile to the Republicans.  Cubans, for one, are a traditionally Rebublican electorate where he is doing a lot of damage.  And they aren not the only ones. A lot of Hispanics who do not personally identify with illegal migrants have heard enough to despise Trump quite personally. It is impossible to go around insulting people and not expect them to be insulted.

Hispanic community's partisan affiliation has, actually, been quite fluid recently. This may be the big step on the road to Black-style voting patterns.