Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Tintrlvr]

In related news, Sinn Fein called for a Border Poll (referendum on Irish reunification) in Northern Ireland yesterday, while Plaid Cymru called for a Welsh Independence vote if Scotland leaves the UK. Brexit's going well - and it technically hasn't begun yet...

Of course, you nincompoop, Wales voted Leave, so they have no grounds whatsoever.

I think it would be reasonable argument that, if Scotland leaves, the Union has changed sufficiently that Wales would be justified in requesting a referendum on independence also, Brexit or no Brexit (would have been true in 2014 also).

It would fail, though.

[Tintrlvr]

Just a quick note as to procedures: Scottish Government cannot actually call a referendum. It's up to the May Government to decide if it wants one or not. Either way, of course, welcome to yet another dumpster fire.

And they appear to have decided there won't be one (at least before the UK leaves the EU).

Independence parties still have other options:

• Hold a 'consultative' referendum that would be non-binding (the EU referendum was non-binding after all). This is, apparently, within the powers of the Scottish Parliament - to hold a consultative referendum on any issue.
• Dissolve the Scottish Parliament and hold election campaign as proxy referendum.
• Get another body to oversee a referendum, such as the European Union (a la the Montenegro referendum in 2006). This is the most unlikely option though.

Conservatives are suggesting that if a referendum is hold on the Scottish Government's timetable, Scots wouldn't know what the EU deal would look like. If the UK Government don't think that they'll know what the Brexit deal is going to look like in Autumn 2018/Spring 2019, when the two year negotiation period in Article 50 would expire in March 2019 - then they obviously believe there won't be a deal between the UK and the EU, IMO.

I think option #2 is the best option for independence - hard to see SNP+Green not getting a majority at a snap election that is a proxy referendum on independence given Labour's ongoing weakness. And then they can clearly say they have a mandate for a unilateral declaration of independence (unlike Catalonia, the lack of partisan fragmentation within the pro-independence coalition in Scotland makes this a lot easier - assuming the Greens are on board with a unilateral declaration but maybe even if they are not as the SNP is probably most likely to get a majority on its own).

[Tintrlvr]

Hard to see Westminster use military force against Scotland if they issued an UDI.

Just leaving this here: https://www.ft.com/content/391f0114-17a1-11e7-a53d-df09f373be87

Using force to prevent Gibraltar from being removed from British rule against its will (and when support for British rule is not just a majority but nearly unanimous) seems quite different from using force to stop Scotland from leaving the UK after a majority of Scotland has voted for independence.