United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Tintrlvr]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

Not the case in 2015, 2017 or 2019 though, and Davey does not strike me as somebody about to inspire a wave of enthusiasm (the previous Lib Dem campaign surges largely involved getting people who’d voted for them at the last election to return, along with positive attention given to the party during the campaign).

Yes, Davey is a drag (really any coalition experience is a minus not a plus) and they would be in a better position installing moran as leader, who i think would play well on stage. What i am thinking is an election campaign where Tories are clearly losing the plot (senior figures already capitulating and playing leadership races during the campaign) and it looks like Labour is going to completely break fptp and win everything, the Lib Dems might be in a good position to "keep the bastards honest". (We stand for good vibes is never a bad campaign for them, just one they haven't been able to play after the coalition or during the brexit years)

I'm not sure I agree, but it's really hard to say without seeing how Davey performs in a campaign (and even then the counterfactual of Moran or someone else (e.g., Daisy Cooper) as leader would not be shown).

There are I think two things the Lib Dems might want to do: First, present a safe pair of hands for voters who are abandoning the Tories but don't want to vote Labour directly or elect a Labour MP (for this I think Davey is best suited), which is a play for a solid comeback in seats and maybe even OO if the Tories completely collapse (I'd only give this about 5-10% chance of happening, but it's not impossible), but not a play for 100+ seats, and, second, make at least a semi-serious claim to want to lead the country (for which I think a "fresh face" such as Moran or Cooper is best suited). The latter is obviously more of a "go-big" strategy, but I don't really think an election where Labour are the inevitable victors is necessarily the right time to try it.

[Tintrlvr]

I think that even the LibDems are expecting their vote to nosedive in Finchley next time.

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

[Tintrlvr]

I mean, anyone predicting a Lib Dem victory in Finchley could take a look at the last local elections there… (see also Kensington and Cities of London constituencies).

To a degree it depends on candidate selection by the Lib Dems (or, really, if they have viable candidate options to start with). Has that happened yet in any of those seats?

They had viable candidates in 2019 because all of them were sitting MPs riding the wave of remainer backlash. The fact they won next to nothing in the 2022 elections (despite Lib Dems usually doing much better at local elections) suggests they haven’t used the 2019 result as a foundation, but rather it was a blip. Compare to somewhere like Wimbledon where they have solidified themselves as the local, and likely national, alternative to the Tories. The best of their 3 star candidates, Luciana Berger, isn't even a Lib Dem anymore.

That was my point. If they had another Jewish figure like Luciana Berger (not a sitting MP, but someone at least moderately prominent), the lack of local presence *might* be made up for. If they don’t, it wouldn’t matter if they *did* develop a local presence.

[Tintrlvr]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

[Tintrlvr]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

They need someone to vote for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales

The LD are literally scrapping 5% in Wales, and (following UKIP) Reform will do better than average in Wales.

The winner in Monty might win it with only 25%, Labour got 16% only 7 behind the LD in 2019.

I think you thought I was saying the LDs would be serious contenders in Montgomeryshire, which I do not think is the case (that one should stay safely Tory; the LDs might have stood a chance if the boundaries went unchanged, but they are nowhere in the Wrexham parts of the seat). I was just saying I don't think Labour can win the seat, either.

I was saying the LDs might be able to be competitive in the revised Brecon seat, although this will be dependent on them establishing themselves as the tactical preference in the new, more Labour-oriented areas added to the seat in the southwest, which is far from certain but seems possible. Filuwaúrdjan is right that it is hardly a given that Labour won't give it a solid try too, but that's most likely to leave the seat looking three-cornered as the historical LD vote in Brecon proper is unlikely to vote Labour.

The LDs' polling Wales-wide is essentially irrelevant; no one thinks they will be competitive anywhere other than Powys this time around.

[Tintrlvr]

Reports from Tory HQ suggests that the official 20:80 campaign is now being changed to 20:200, with every tory seat with less than 15,000 majority being marked as vulnerable and being given extra party support (and some seats with a higher majority - they mention Weston-Super-Mare in particular).

And how long until every seat with a sub-5,000 majority gets cut off?

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

The only one where SF is at all relevant is Belfast South but that one is actually significant. If SF ran there would be at least a chance for the DUP to come up through the middle again as they did in 2017 (especially with the expanded seat as I think the areas of Down it expanded into are solidly unionist).

It is interesting that the Alliance despite its historic reputation as a unionist party for people who don't want to be called unionists is mainly and increasingly forming alliances with and attracting tactical voters from the nationalist parties.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796468845965910348

It would have been too kind of the Tories to simply hand the seat to the Lib Dems.

[Tintrlvr]

Its almost certainly not as many as 200 in reality, and few if any GB seats (the Speaker's excepted) won't have a Tory standing when nominations close a week from now.

I also can’t imagine them failing to nominate candidates in any seats they hold, and the number of seats they don’t hold where them not standing would matter is very small (maybe some SNP-Lab battles but there not 100% clear who it benefits, a few SNP-LD battles where the beneficiary is more clearly the LDs but the Tories seem to have nominated in all of them, and a few LD-Lab battles, although the only one of those I can think of is Sheffield Hallam, which incidentally does not seem to have a Tory candidate yet).

[Tintrlvr]

Nick Clegg is, per the FT, using his Facebook salary to bankroll the Lib Dem campaign in his former Hallam seat, pumping thousands into the race.

There's something endearingly parochial about a man who has the reach and means to buy US Senators instead throwing cash at a tiny race between two social democrats in Sheffield.

I’ve got a niche prediction that if we lose one seat it’ll be Hallam (Tories voting tactically for the Lib Dem’s like they did in 2015 but didn’t in 17/19) not Bristol Central.

As I pointed out earlier, the Tories have not yet nominated in Sheffield Hallam, and there’s at least some chance that they don’t run a candidate at all. That might be worse for the Lib Dems in winning over Labour voters but probably still better for the Lib Dems than a Tory paper candidate taking 5-10% of the vote.

[Tintrlvr]

New YouGov Westminster VI poll (with the new MRP-style methodology) :

• Lab: 40%
• Con: 19%
• Reform UK: 17%
• Lib Dem: 10%
• Green: 7%
• SNP: 3%

This puts the Tories in third on ElectoralCalculus. The Reform seats seem to be based on previous strong independents/minor parties (Ashfield and Rochdale, the outlier is Torbay) rather than actual Reform strength.

LAB: 490
LIB: 63
CON: 56
SNP: 14
PC: 4
REF: 3
GRN: 2

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

There hasn't been a 'safe' Tory seat in Scotland in decades.

I guess I got the impression Tories held the South pretty well, since in basically all maps I've seen of this election they hold it.

Anyway, guess Reform's influence might be somewhat smaller with that in mind, although I assume Farage coming back will help them pick some MPs.

The South of Scotland is very weak for the SNP. Since the SNP has been ascendant for the last decade and Labour in the wilderness, the Tories have had minimal challenge for the southern seats. But Labour is not as fundamentally weak there as the SNP, and the decline of both the SNP and the Tories probably makes those seats more vulnerable to Labour than they look on paper. (The Lib Dems also used to be relevant there and competed with the Tories but seem to be dead in southern Scotland nowadays.)

[Tintrlvr]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

[Tintrlvr]

The nomination deadline is tomorrow, right? Anyone have updates on how many Tory, LD, Reform and Green candidates are missing? Are the SNP or Plaid missing any candidates? I know Labour has a full slate nominated.

How many candidates do the parties still need?

We don't know, exactly. There's no official list until close of nominations, and some parties are better than others at telling us about selections. However:

- Labour have a full slate (excluding Chorley and NI).
- The English and Welsh Greens have 7 constituencies with a "TBC" on their list. At least some of these previously had a named candidate. I don't think the Scottish Greens normally have a full slate.
- The Conservatives don't have a centralised list that I know of, but have 545 candidates listed on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so appear to be short by about 86. (The spreadsheet doesn't include NI, and they won't stand in Chorley, so the target is 631.) But it's possible that some candidates have in fact been selected and they just haven't told anyone.
- The Lib Dems have 559 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, short by 72. I think there are a few selected candidates not on this list.
- Reform UK have 476 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so have some way to go. They do have a webpage with candidate information, but it is rather annoying to use.

I just figured there would be updates over the course of today given the timing! But maybe not.

[Tintrlvr]

I'll say it again - what I find so interesting about the UK elections this year is that Conservatives are rightfully being punished for things. Like, this is how things are supposed to work in politics - conservatives keep messing up, and voters are reacting to that rationally.

It's such a complete difference from the U.S.

It’s the difference between a presidential system and a parliamentary system, and the difference between separation of powers and parliamentary supremacy. Voters actual hold a supreme legislature responsible for its own failings.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if there'll be a constituency visited by all three leaders?

Maybe Wimbledon if Labour decides to target it. Easy for Starmer to visit and has the other two already

[Tintrlvr]

I do think if they made Cameron leader they could get back A LOT of the moderate Tories who are voting Labour. Enough to win? Surely not even close. But def keep it closer to bring the Tories below a Blairslide

Last minute substitutions of a party leader are just an incredibly stupid thing that makes your party look indecisive and disorganized.

Same people who'd think this is a good idea are probably the same people who think subbing Biden out at the last minute would somehow be a good idea. Once you have your candidate you have that candidate and veering away from that makes your party look amateurish and not ready for prime time.

I agree generally. Installing Cameron would be stupid and counterproductive. I could see installing a more right-wing leader as a save-the-furniture strategy to win back a few Reform voters (who are clearly already willing to vote for a disorganized mess of a party…) and try to guarantee OO with 75-100 seats but no potential to do better than that as a potential strategy but definitely very risky.