What causes climate change

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I toured the large BP research facility near me last month. Their introductory presentation clearly stated that BP believes that human-induced climate change is real and driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Stops included labs working on research on techniques to minimize carbon emissions from their refineries.

It's hard to understand the debate when one of the largest carbon-producers in the world acknowledges the science. It reminds me of the debate over the ozone hole in the 1980's. The big CFC producers weren't on board initially, but recognized the science before the political class did.

Ok, so some of it is human-induced.  What percentage?  How much of it is a naturally occurring phenomenon.  That's the crux of the anti-climate changers - sure humans cause it but it's not the leading cause.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I toured the large BP research facility near me last month. Their introductory presentation clearly stated that BP believes that human-induced climate change is real and driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Stops included labs working on research on techniques to minimize carbon emissions from their refineries.

It's hard to understand the debate when one of the largest carbon-producers in the world acknowledges the science. It reminds me of the debate over the ozone hole in the 1980's. The big CFC producers weren't on board initially, but recognized the science before the political class did.

Ok, so some of it is human-induced.  What percentage?  How much of it is a naturally occurring phenomenon.  That's the crux of the anti-climate changers - sure humans cause it but it's not the leading cause.

Individual annual fluctuations have only a small contribution from humans. When one looks at the short term, solar cycles and volcanoes can create noticeable effects. However, those natural fluctuations average out over a span of decades and don't account for much long term change. The human effects are slow and cumulative. The net change over the last 100 years can best be explained by human causes contributing over 2/3 (and likely more) of the observed effects.

I bet the anti-climate changers flood you with mail. 

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I toured the large BP research facility near me last month. Their introductory presentation clearly stated that BP believes that human-induced climate change is real and driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Stops included labs working on research on techniques to minimize carbon emissions from their refineries.

It's hard to understand the debate when one of the largest carbon-producers in the world acknowledges the science. It reminds me of the debate over the ozone hole in the 1980's. The big CFC producers weren't on board initially, but recognized the science before the political class did.

Ok, so some of it is human-induced.  What percentage?  How much of it is a naturally occurring phenomenon.  That's the crux of the anti-climate changers - sure humans cause it but it's not the leading cause.

You could try clicking on the link. As it shows, greenhouse gases are responsible for more than 100% of the warming, but other factors, most notably aerosols, cancel part of them out.

I prefer asking muon2, whose opinion I value.  If he believes it, then I need to re-think it.