Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

pictured: Chip Lake

[Bacon King]

Just got back from my grandmother's funeral, spent three days with my relatives down in the rural south of the state. So it's time for

BACON KING'S FAMILY POLITICAL TRACKER UPDATE

• In the GOP Senate race, they like Kingston because they thought he was a good Congressman when they were in the 1st District. Mixed opinion on Broun. General consensus is that there are a lot of candidates and the election's still a ways away so they're keeping an open mind towards all of them.
• Nobody really likes Nathan Deal but they don't really see him losing reelection. Even the savviest family politico (I'm talking regular attendee to the state GOP convention, who proudly displays a picture of himself with Newt Gingrich on the dining room wall) wasn't even aware Deal had a primary challenger.
• There's a "wait and see" attitude towards Carter and Nunn, on whether they'll be "Georgia Democrats" who represent the working man, or "National Democrats" who serve the interests of "special interests"
• They're more open towards Nunn because if she takes after her dad they know they'll like her, whereas if Carter is like his grandfather they still don't know whether he'll be like Governor Jimmy Carter (good, honest, common sense man), President Jimmy Carter (well intentioned but inept) or Former President Jimmy Carter (raging liberal socialist who loves the terrorists, god bless him for building those houses for poor people though).
• When the news that the Federal Judge had ruled the NSA stuff unconstitutional, reaction varied from "the only problem with it, really, was that they didn't tell people they were doing it to start with," to staunch libertarian views on the topic.

Also I discovered I have a possible networking connection with the new DPG Chair DuBose Porter! My cousin and his son played soccer on the same team for several years. My uncle recounted conversations he had with Porter, where the two agreed that the state Democratic Party would be doing a lot better if they could win back the votes of "those scared white folks who are, y'know, afraid of the minorities taking over, getting too much power over them," so make of that what you will.

[Bacon King]

The fact that Deal isn't in jail yet is pretty surprising.

It's pretty surprising he wasn't in jail in 2010, honestly. Recall he resigned to run for governor literally the day before the House Ethics Committee was supposed to have a hearing on his cash for clunkers personal profit making scheme that would have probably gotten him expelled.

[Bacon King]

I was fortunately off today and as I wake up I see the ground covered in snow again! Do we know yet if this is Snowpocalypse II or if they were actually prepared this time?

[Bacon King]

Perdue has been running TV and radio ads like crazy in the Atlanta market (and probably throughout the state) and as far as I know he's the only candidate on the air anywhere right now. Not surprised at all he has a lead from nowhere.

[Bacon King]

Kingston has ads up in ATL

[Bacon King]

I was at the GOP debate in Macon, GA last night. Got to meet all 7 candidates and briefly interview them.

The debate held a straw poll, and Karen Handel won. The runner-up (I think) was David Perdue.

What sort of people attended the debate and voted in the straw poll? Did they seem like Karen Handel's sort of people? I'd love to hear more about your experience interviewing them!

[Bacon King]

Adam what is your methodology for these maps? I assume you're comparing county vote totals to county racial turnout totals? Are you assuming "black = Obama voter" and I guess other = two thirds Obama or so? There are several places on both maps that makes the results seem a bit questionable to me

How about that Charter Schools amendment?

A little late, but w/e

Omg this is amazing, there's all these divisive patterns and I have no idea what is going on. My favorite thing is that VIDALIA ONION COUNTRY HATES CHARTER SCHOOLS plz explain

[Bacon King]

Aha! I see the problem.

this is a link to a PDF of 2012 turnout by race and gender by county and here is one for 2008, if you weren't already using these. Scroll down to the bottom page of either and you'll see "unknown" makes up half or more of the voters who aren't white or black. Notice how neither gender nor race is specified for Unknown? That's because those are the people who didn't check the race or gender boxes when they filled out their voter registration form, which is technically optional. I believe your error is assuming that unknown = white, when in reality I figure people of all races are equally likely, more or less, to leave those boxes blank for whatever reason. The racial composition of unknown voters in a county is probably identical to the proportions of known voters in a county. Hypothetically one could look at the precinct turnout data also featured on the site and extrapolate even more clearly who these unknown voters are (this might be useful for some Metro counties).

If you didn't account for these unknowns correctly it would explain why your maps show whites in the black belt inexplicably voting for Obama in greater numbers. How else could you explain Hancock County whites five times as likely as Glascock County whites to vote D?

[Bacon King]

I used Hancock specifically because it's the only rural county where black voters were a greater proportion of the vote than the partisan breakdown you assume for "unknown" voters. This would effectively double the discrepancy, because it'd be one of the only counties where "unknown" voters are more likely to vote Obama than you estimate so it would make your guess of a white percentage off by even more.

Throughout most of the state, there's a fairly strong direct correlation in your map between a white voter's proximity to black voters, and the white voter's probability of voting for Obama, which is literally exactly the opposite of what you say is happening. Even when you throw out the smaller urban centers like Augusta, Albany, Macon, Savannah, and Columbus, and college towns Milledgeville and Statesboro, you have a bunch of counties that are blacker than surrounding counties where whites are also more likely to vote for Obama.

See: Hancock, Warren, Taliaferro, Washington, Jefferson, Macon, Talbot, Marion, Sumter, Stewart, Quitman, Clay, Calhoun, Liberty, etc

The cocks are the most obvious example of a consistent pattern throughout the black belt and really the entire state south of the Atlanta metro. It makes no sense based on my personal knowledge of these places.

Regarding the turnout, I'm not surprised that people who don't check off the boxes on their form have a lower than average turnout. Whether it's out of paranoia or laziness or age or whatever, pretty much any factor you can think about that would keep someone from identifying their race and gender on a form would also make them less likely to go to the polls on election day.

[Bacon King]

At some point, Georgians are going to be sick and tired of Republican rule in the Peach State.

wow

much insight

[Bacon King]

I used Hancock specifically because it's the only rural county where black voters were a greater proportion of the vote than the partisan breakdown you assume for "unknown" voters. This would effectively double the discrepancy, because it'd be one of the only counties where "unknown" voters are more likely to vote Obama than you estimate so it would make your guess of a white percentage off by even more.

Throughout most of the state, there's a fairly strong direct correlation in your map between a white voter's proximity to black voters, and the white voter's probability of voting for Obama, which is literally exactly the opposite of what you say is happening. Even when you throw out the smaller urban centers like Augusta, Albany, Macon, Savannah, and Columbus, and college towns Milledgeville and Statesboro, you have a bunch of counties that are blacker than surrounding counties where whites are also more likely to vote for Obama.

See: Hancock, Warren, Taliaferro, Washington, Jefferson, Macon, Talbot, Marion, Sumter, Stewart, Quitman, Clay, Calhoun, Liberty, etc

The cocks are the most obvious example of a consistent pattern throughout the black belt and really the entire state south of the Atlanta metro. It makes no sense based on my personal knowledge of these places.

Regarding the turnout, I'm not surprised that people who don't check off the boxes on their form have a lower than average turnout. Whether it's out of paranoia or laziness or age or whatever, pretty much any factor you can think about that would keep someone from identifying their race and gender on a form would also make them less likely to go to the polls on election day.

Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking we might be seeing some neat bell curve of sorts, where whites were more pro-Obama not only in rural areas where there are virtually no blacks, but also in more rural areas where there are large black populations.

But...

2012 electorate, Hancock:

77.34% black
21.21% white
1.45% other

The others/unknowns don't even play a significant role here. Using the formulas, I get this:

(77.34*0.95) + (1.45*0.65) = 74.41%

80.92 (Obama vote %) - 74.41 = 6.51

6.51/21.21 = 30.69% of white vote for Obama

Even if you count all of the unknowns as whites: 32.87%
And count all of the unknowns as blacks: 28.62%

I haven't checked the other counties. The ones you named: are those the ones you believe there are issues with on here? Especially in the SW...on both Carter and Sanford's turf...?

Maybe the issue is that you're underestimating Obama's share of the black vote or the general nonwhite vote? Where you getting those numbers from? That would also explain the pattern.

And yeah those counties I listed are the ones that immediately stood out to me as being counties blacker than their surroundings where whites are apparently more likely to vote for Obama.

[Bacon King]

I'm not as optimistic about Democrat chances in Georgia as everyone else here is. Paul Broun's fundraising has been terrible, and Gingrey hasn't been getting any traction. I expect Handel to get the nomination, and if not her, then Perdue.

I don't think you can count out Kingston either. Kingston has been on fire with fundraising. But I'm starting to think it's a three-headed race for the nomination between those three (Handel, Perdue, and Kingston).

This is based on nothing but my own gut instinct but I think Kingston is by far the most likely candidate to win the primary

[Bacon King]

Pennington will make a 'major announcement' tomorrow:

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Any thoughts, Adam?

Please let him run as a 3rd party

Running as a third party candidate is almost impossible in GA; we have some of the most ridiculous ballot access laws

[Bacon King]

adam griffin are you responsible for this

[Bacon King]

Guys who should I vote for

[Bacon King]

Chamber has bought $32k of pro-Kingston ads to run in Atlanta and Macon.

FCC filings show that the Chamber is spending $537,000 on Atlanta broadcast television through May 20 on Kingston’s behalf. The Washington Post is reporting that the Chamber bought $32,000 worth of ads in Macon and Augusta.

Context: Macon and Augusta are Podunk small town media markets where used car lots often buy prime time network ad slots, Atlanta is one of the biggest and most expensive media markets in the country where "local" ad space mostly goes to the locally tailored ads of Fortune 500 companies. I would not be surprised if those amounts equate to more actual ad time in Macon/Augusta than Atlanta

[Bacon King]

Who will fight for conservative principles AND get results?

Who wants to stop illegal immigration and Obamacare AND cut spending?

I like this ad. I think it's effective at distinguishing her from her opponents and I'm expecting to see her bump in the polls, assuming it's running as often as I seem to be seeing it

[Bacon King]

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

OMG TURNOUT SKYROCKETING IN PENNINGTON'S BASE

DEAL IS FINISHED

[Bacon King]

adam get in IRC to discuss results

[Bacon King]

With four thousand votes in, I'm gonna call it now that Kingston makes the runoff. He's pulling 80 percent of early voters across south GA

[Bacon King]

It's Kingston/Perdue unless Handel manages to pull an unexpectedly huge chunk of her old base in the metro

[Bacon King]

Perdue    29.99%
Kingston  29.02%
Handel    19.18%
Broun      10.13%
Gingrey      9.76%
Grayson     1.04%
Gardner     0.88%

Lots of ATL still out so Handel still has a bit of a chance to get in the runoff (more likely at Kingston's expense but a lot of downstate is still out as well)


Mike Buck and Dick Woods look like they're going to the GOP Superintendent Runoff, with this delightful map:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/51345/129558/en/md.html?cid=10610




Don Balfour, longest serving GOP State Senator, former chairman of the GOP Senate Caucus, former chairman of the Senate Rules Committee, former President of the National Conference of State Legislatures, is currently in third place in his primary

[Bacon King]

Balfour was indicted on 18 counts of perjury and theft related to filing false expense reports and subsequently suspended from office. He was subsequently found not guilty by a jury trial and allowed to return to office but there was still talk of censuring him after he returned

[Bacon King]

For the next two months, Kingston and Perdue are going to be spending millions going harshly negative against each other. This is going to be vicious and everyone is underestimating the extent this will help Nunn.