Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

Let's play a game! Can you spot which South GA counties had competitive primaries in local elections this year?

[Bacon King]

I have not checked, and am on my phone so cannot currently check, but I am willing to bet real money that there were competitive dem primaries for some office like sheriff in all those double digit counties. Especially Atkinson

[Bacon King]

BK, no Bacon King's family tracker update?

BK Family Tracker Update: bitter infighting regarding the estate of my recently deceased grandparents precludes the possibility of polite discussion regarding politics or any other issue

[Bacon King]

With Handel and others like Price coalescing behind Kingston I feel like the runoff is sort of already over unless he makes a huge gaffe, Perdue made the mistake of antagonizing all of his primary opponents, so now they are all getting behind his opponent and their supporters will too, his money got him first place but he's not liked enough to win this because most of the non top 2 support is going to go to Kingston, or at least enough of a majority for him to win by some margin in the runoff.

It's a common misconception that a failed primary candidate's voters generally care about their endorsement in the runoff. The simple arithmetic of something like "Handel + Kingston > Perdue" is especially not as straightforward as you might think because its not like Handel will keep paying her staffers to run a GOTV effort on her supporters in the runoff

[Bacon King]

Jack Kingston has a great radio ad up on the big conservative talk radio stations, featuring a great Obama impersonation:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2gTI_bAPqM

[Bacon King]

I've been out of town the last few days so I completely missed the election but I am disgusted at the Hice victory in my district and a bit suspicious about the close statewide races

[Bacon King]

I'm visiting my maternal grandmother in Macon so it's now time for a

BK FAMILY TRACKER MINI-UPDATE

background: she is a conservative Democrat but voted for Obama twice mostly out of serious concerns she had with the Republican candidates. In 2008 said, "I never woulda thought I'd see myself voting for a negro"

• She regrets her Obama votes. Admits she still wouldn't have voted Romney; as we watched a McCain interview on Face the Nation she said, "I voted against him because his age and his cancer, but see he looks younger than ever! He's a very intelligent man."
• She really liked "that young fella" who ran as Romney's running mate, and is excited to hear he is considering a 2016 presidency
• Absolutely loves Hillary Clinton, doesn't believe she is responsible for "those embassy terrorists"; she will enthusiastically vote Clinton if she runs and is certain she will win
• Doesn't like Nathan Deal but she wants to learn about Jason Carter before she makes up her mind
• She really liked Sonny Perdue so she's inclined to support David but she's concerned about how he "fired all those people and closed that plant down up in North Carolina"
• Has some personal concerns about Michelle Nunn: didn't know if "she was his daughter-in-law or if she's a spinster"; expressed concern and bewilderment when she learned that Michelle is married but kept her maiden name.

Edit to add:

• The reason she likes Sonny is because he eliminated the state income tax for retired people
• She considers Jimmy Carter as a great man and thought he was a good governor; she feels his Presidency was bad because he was "too much of a strong Christian to be successful in Washington"
• She really doesn't like Chris Christie; she thinks he is "on drugs, dancing around like that" (?) and thinks he's a corrupt jerk
• "[Rick Perry]'s tryin' to look smart, wearing those glasses, he ain't foolin' nobody"

[Bacon King]

I'm glad you like it Windjammer! I've added more bullet points of things she's said since I made the post; I'm currently eating at the Golden Corral with her and my brother. Discussion is no longer related to politics but if she mentions anything else ill make a new post

[Bacon King]

I'm glad you like it Windjammer! I've added more bullet points of things she's said since I made the post; I'm currently eating at the Golden Corral with her and my brother. Discussion is no longer related to politics but if she mentions anything else ill make a new post

Could you ask her some specific questions please?

1) Does she believe Deal is a corrupt rightwinger?
2) Zell Miller endorsed Michelle Nunn, opinion of that?
3) Opinion of the GA republican party?

1. She doesn't have a strong opinion of Deal; she remembers seeing something about his administration's corruption issues on the news but doesn't recall any details. Her opinion of politics is that "every one of em's corrupt, either from the start or it'll happen once they get up there" so she tolerates minor ethical lapses as expected behavior. She's never stated so, but my suspicion is that this belief is related to the fact that her father owned the construction company that originally paved all the roads in Byron, while simultaneously serving on its city council!

2. Didnt get to ask her this, but her expressed opinion of him is that "Ol Zig-Zag Zell don't even know which way is up" so I can't imagine his endorsement would mean very much to her personally

3. No strong opinion- she judges candidates individually. On down ballot races between two nobodies she votes for the Democrat because she says "more often than not I usually tend to like the ones on that side better"

[Bacon King]

Windjammer she has a hard enough time just figuring out how to use her email

I just asked the questions as part of standard conversation, I have no idea how she'd react if she knew I was asking her things because a random guy in France wanted to know lol

Although facilitating the Q&A was pretty neat- next time I visit with relatives ill make a post soliciting questions for them

[Bacon King]

On Sunday I'll be down in south GA helping my dad to settle some stuff with my grandparents' estate. I will have a lot of conversation time with several of my aunts and uncles who are very politically-minded. So please post any questions or topics you would like discussed in next edition of BK's Family PoliticsWatch: ElectionTracker 2014

[Bacon King]

just for a random update, John Barrow's ad team continues to be awesome in this cycle

[Bacon King]

I feel like he may be Frank Underwood.

Now that you mention it...

John Barrow is "perhaps the most shameless, duplicitous, self-serving politician of his era."

[Bacon King]

New PPP poll for Georgia featuring downballot races and juicy crosstabs. For the downballot races I have taken the liberty of labeling incumbency and partisan affiliation so y'all out of state folks can still follow along

Interestingly, the headline results here are contrary to the conventional wisdom that Carter is campaigning better than Nunn. Some of the most favorably viewed people in Georgia might surprise you! Also people think a $10 minimum wage is pretty cool, are mostly #Ready4Hillary but not for the #CainTrain, and the Braves & UGA are both still hegemon (if you particularly care the poll details has more questions about their coaching staff and etc)


Gubernatorial Election
46% Nathan Deal
41% Jason Carter
  4% Random Libertarian

Runoff/"Combined Horse Race"
50% Nathan Deal
45% Jason Carter


Senatorial Election
45% David Perdue
43% Michelle Nunn
  5% Random Libertarian

Runoff/"combined horse race"
48% David Perdue
45% Michelle Nunn


Lieutenant Governor
48% Casey Cagle (R)(i)
37% Connie Stokes (D)

Attorney General
45% Sam Olens (R)(i)
36% Greg Hecht (D)

Agriculture Commissioner
45% Gary Black (R)(i)
36% Chris Irvin (D)

Insurance Commissioner
41% Ralph Hudgens (R)(i)
34% Liz Johnson (D)
10% Random Libertarian (L)

Labor Commissioner
45% Mark Butler (R)(i)
36% Robbin Shipp

Secretary of State
48% Brian Kemp (R)(i)
39% Doreen Carter (D)

State Superintendent
46% Richard Woods (R)
40% Valarie Wilson (D)


Favorability and Approvals!
(fornatted as positive vs negative, followed by net rating;
an asterisk indicates the question was about job approval, not favorability)

MLK Junior:	72% vs 16% (+56)
Paula Deen:	58% vs 23% (+35)
Sam Nunn:	54% vs 20% (+34)
Jimmy Carter:	50% vs 40% (+10)
Herman Cain:	43% vs 38% (  +5)
Jason Carter:	39% vs 36% (  +3)
*Saxby Chambliss:	39% vs 36% (  +3)
*Johnny Isakson:	38% vs 35% (  +3)
*Nathan Deal:	43% vs 42% (  +1)
Sonny Perdue:	42% vs 42% ( +/-)
Michelle Nunn:	41% vs 42% (   -1)
David Perdue:	39% vs 43% (   -4)
Newt Gingrich:	42% vs 47% (   -5)
*Barack Obama:	41% vs 54% ( -13)

2016 Presidential Questions and Match-ups

57% think that Herman Cain should not run for President again
64% think that Newt Gingrich should not run for President again

44% Hillary Clinton
45% Jeb Bush (+1)

48% Hillary Clinton (+3)
45% Herman Cain

46% Hillary Clinton (+5)
41% Chris Christie

47% Hillary Clinton (+6)
41% Ted Cruz

49% Hillary Clinton (+6)
43% Newt Gingrich

48% Hillary Clinton (+3)
45% Mike Huckabee

47% Hillary Clinton (+3)
44% Rand Paul


Policy Questions and Sports

Raise Minimum Wage to $10/hour?
56% Support
38% Oppose

Accept federal funds to expand Medicaid?
56% Support
33% Oppose

Braves fan?
60% Yes
30% No

Georgia or Georgia Tech?
48% UGA
20% GT

[Bacon King]

Crosstab fun:

1. The runoff screens don't show much of the expected enthusiasm gap; it may not be as bad as we are fearing

2. Holy Christ the gender gaps are insane in this state, like literally a twenty point difference seems to be the norm, with an almost forty point difference on some of the Hilldawg matchups

3. Apparently 10% of GA African-Americans do not have a favorable opinion of MLK

[Bacon King]

Also Adam for you here is the racial crosstabs, can your electoral demographics wizardry deduct anything from this

Why is Nathan Deal so popular among the minorities, it frightens me

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	61%	15%	38%
Jason Carter	27%	76%	34%
Libertarian	4%	1%	11%
Undecided	8%	8%	17%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	66%	16%	45%
Jason Carter	30%	78%	52%
Undecided	4%	6%	3%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	61%	10%	36%
Michelle Nunn	27%	79%	40%
Libertarian	4%	2%	13%
Undecided	8%	9%	10%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	65%	11%	49%
Michelle Nunn	29%	82%	45%
Undecided	7%	6%	6%

[Bacon King]

Hey, y'all in 2016 will our state primaries and local elections still be in may, or is it tied to when we have our presidential primary (in which case I suppose it will move earlier)? I feel like this should be easy info to find, but I haven't been looking in the right places.

Need it for scheming happening in Athens.

I support all scheming happenings!

Georgia's Presidential Primary is not tied to the state-level primaries. The law right now says the Secretary of State gets to declare whenever GA's presidential primary will be, so that we can remain an early primary state even if other states keep moving their primary dates around

[Bacon King]

Hey, y'all in 2016 will our state primaries and local elections still be in may, or is it tied to when we have our presidential primary (in which case I suppose it will move earlier)? I feel like this should be easy info to find, but I haven't been looking in the right places.

Need it for scheming happening in Athens.

I support all scheming happenings!

Georgia's Presidential Primary is not tied to the state-level primaries. The law right now says the Secretary of State gets to declare whenever GA's presidential primary will be, so that we can remain an early primary state even if other states keep moving their primary dates around

The gist of it is I work with a socialist (in all but name) organization called Athens for Everyone which almost got a socialist elected mayor last may and will be running a full slate of candidates for county commission in 2016. We also want to actively campaign for Bernie Sanders, in the event that he runs in the Democratic primaries (which is almost certain to happen according to my comrades in the DSA) and are perfectly positioned to bus activists into South Carolina for weekend canvassing and the like. However, if local elections are happening at the same time (or very close to) the presidential primaries then our capacity to be involved there will be severely limited.

Are local elections always in May, or is there a possibility they might be later in 2016?

It's up in the air; the Georgia election calendar this year was a temporary schedule made by a judge, because the state failed to comply with a federal court order to provide a 45+ day gap before a runoff for primary and general elections to Federal offices (this is also why the Senate and Governor runoffs are on different dates this year). Athens local elections are AFAIK tied to the state primary date so wherever they put that in 2016 will be the date of your nonpartisan locals as well

[Bacon King]

Here are the three regions of Georgia according to SurveyUSA:



Red: "Northwest Georgia"

2010 Census population: 3,471,185

Race	Total	VAP
White:	67.4%	70.6%
Black:	19.9%	18.8%
Hispanic:	8.9%	7.3%
Asian:	2.0%	2.0%

Vote	Prez 2008	Average
Democrat	36.3%	38.8%
Republican	62.8%	61.2%
Other	0.9%

Blue: Atlanta Metro

2010 Census population: 3,105,873

Race	Total	VAP
White:	42.5%	45.7%
Black:	36.2%	35.0%
Hispanic:	12.5%	10.9%
Asian:	6.5%	6.6%

Vote	Prez 2008	Average
Democrat	59.8%	56.6%
Republican	39.4%	43.4%
Other	0.7%

Green: South and East

2010 Census population: 3,110,595

Race	Total	VAP
White:	56.4%	59.3%
Black:	35.3%	33.6%
Hispanic:	5.1%	4.4%
Asian:	1.4%	1.5%

Vote	Prez 2008	Average
Democrat	45.2%	47.8%
Republican	54.2%	52.2%
Other	0.6%

[Bacon King]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Do you still think Carter will get more votes than Nunn because at this point I'm willing to make a good bet against it

[Bacon King]

Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?

[Bacon King]

Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?

BK that was what I said when we discussed it; are you now saying the opposite of what you were way back then

I personally think that around 50% of those unknowns are Latinos; maybe more. Not a complete correlation, but the more Latino-populated counties usually have much higher rates of unknown RVs.

I guess let's say you won that argument then

[Bacon King]

Jahn Barrah is absolutely the best and I really hope he runs for the Senate against Isakson

[Bacon King]

Did Barrow not run this year because Nunn and Carter already made their interest known? It seems like it would've been a decent proposition since Georgia as a whole is more Democratic than his solid R district.

The DSCC were in talks with both Barrow and Nunn in 2013, and the story goes that Barrow wasn't interested in running for Senate all that much and ultimately declined. It wouldn't surprise me if Barrow just didn't want to deal with (what would have been) a very competitive primary with no guarantee of winning it. Also, Barrow loves a competitive general election and so maybe Georgia wasn't enough of an uphill battle for his tastes.

My understanding is that Nunn was already definitely in and Barrow deferred to her because he wasn't willing to force a competitive primary.

[Bacon King]

A fascinating development in a downballot race today: the incumbent Republcian School Superintendent, John Barge, endorsed the Democract, Valarie Wilson, for the state's top education position. If you remember, Barge has always been a maverick and attempted an ill-fated primary challenge on Deal in May.

There has been some polling in this race and it's proven to be as just as competitive as the races at the top of the ballot.

omg yes



btw guys if there isn't a Republican incumbent running for reelection as School Superintendent in 2018 there's a very real chance my dad's cousin will be running in the GOP primary for that office

if that happens plz forgive me because I will be actively campaigning for a Republican

(he wanted to run this year but Deal's people dissuaded him from running by giving him a cushy job as the high level administrator for a state program)