What will happen in NH?

[NHPolitico]

I only watch it if it comes on close to Daria

Hey, you too!!  And you're 2 years older than me!  I guess I shouldn't feel so weird after all.

I love Daria  

The old school version was better. You whipper snappers.

[NHPolitico]

No... you should still feel wierd

It's a window into the trauma of today's teenager's life.  A teenager's overdramatized, scripted life.

[NHPolitico]

What if Dean loses resoundingly in Iowa? Will he win NH no matter what?

Dean's still pretty strong here. I live in a Gore CD, in a Gore county. Plenty of Dean support-- signs and bumper stickers. I don't see that fading away in a week because of a third place showing tonight.

[NHPolitico]

I don't think so.  But a bad showing in Iowa could mean a less than specatcular showing in New Hampshire, which could lead to him being upset on "Mini- Super-Tuesday".

This is the state where Dean has to show his organizational skill.  He needs a win here and I think he'll get it.

I think Dean *could* lose in New Hampshire. But even if he finishes first, but only wins narrowly, it will be seen as a sign of weakness. Most likely, whoever does well in Iowa will get a boost in NH, and thus get the attention from that primary as well. But this is really getting exciting...

[NHPolitico]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

Aww come on. New Hampshire is way better than Iowa.

Daniel Webster, John "Jamestown" Smith, Augustus Saint Gaudens, Daniel "Lincoln Memorial" French, Robert Frost, Alan Shepard, John Paul Jones, Maxfield Parish, Sarah Hale, Thornton Wilder, Carlton Fiske, Bob Tewksbury, Adam Sandler, Steven Tyler...

[NHPolitico]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

Also, Iowa is actually better at picking "right", I think. New Hampshire tend t go for outsiders, who don't win anyway.

They got it right in 1984 and 1996 and 2000, not right in 1980 and 1988 and 1992.

[NHPolitico]

Adam Sandler?

You ARE desperate

Hey, no love for Crazy Spoon-Head?

[NHPolitico]

What if Dean loses resoundingly in Iowa? Will he win NH no matter what?

If Dean acts like a crazy person in his post-loss rally, he'll be toast. Check!

Holy crap, everyone should check that clip out. Dean has gone nuts.  It's hilarious. He hasn't learned a damned thing from this last month in Iowa.

[NHPolitico]

 







This circus won't play well among undeclareds in the Granite State.

[NHPolitico]

I for one, am glad to see a presidential candidate with some character and a fiery attitude.

And anyone who compares his vigor and energy on the campaign trail to getting "angry" in the white house and being bad for diplomacy issues should be shot.

That last sentence sounds like a punchline to a joke.  "Anyone who confuses rabid crazy talk as a sign of out-of-control sociopathic behavior should be shot in the kneecaps and left to die slowly."

[NHPolitico]

I for one, am glad to see a presidential candidate with some character and a fiery attitude.

And anyone who compares his vigor and energy on the campaign trail to getting "angry" in the white house and being bad for diplomacy issues should be shot.

Apparently, The View with Babwa Wa-Wa played the clip and the chicks were unanimous that he was out of his mind.  Lots of women watch that show.

Dean is a human Hindenburg or Titanic.  He's out-Muskied Edmund Muskie.  Howie, we hardly knew ye.

[NHPolitico]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

Edwards only needs to finish in the Top 3 in New Hamphsire and win SC and do well in the other states that day to really be in this.  A brokered convention would be exciting.

[NHPolitico]

They got it right in 1984 and 1996 and 2000, not right in 1980 and 1988 and 1992.

For the Dems you mean? They voted for McCain didn't they? (or should I say you?)

Right meaning the eventual GOP and Dem nominees. Iowa correctly picked Reagan and Mondale, Clinton and Dole, and Bush and Gore.  
 

[NHPolitico]

I for one, am glad to see a presidential candidate with some character and a fiery attitude.

And anyone who compares his vigor and energy on the campaign trail to getting "angry" in the white house and being bad for diplomacy issues should be shot.

Apparently, The View with Babwa Wa-Wa played the clip and the chicks were unanimous that he was out of his mind.  Lots of women watch that show.

Dean is a human Hindenburg or Titanic.  He's out-Muskied Edmund Muskie.  Howie, we hardly knew ye.

Okay, that did make me laugh.

Don't forget my tip jar on your way out of the club.

[NHPolitico]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

The surge in traffic to Edwards' site supposedly shut it down temporarily.  I hope he gets enough to buy ads this week.  Hell, just run the ads from Iowa. Apparently, those were golden.

[NHPolitico]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

I think Kerry could lose a lot in NH.

The Democrats want earnestly to nominate someone "electable", and seem to be vetting their candidates one at a time.

Kerry's the front-runner, so now he gets the media scrutiny and the attacks (Clark is already on him: "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer...but I've had the military leadership at the top as well as the bottom". Yeah, and these guys both want to hand over the war on terror to the UN).

If the play between the story in the media and the NH outcome begins to look bad for Kerry, he could come out of NH crippled, just as Iowa crippled Dean. Then the Dems will look at Clark or Edwards, whoever's on top.

Will they find anyone electable?

You're still hoping for Lieberman, huh?

I don't think Kerry can do worse than the 3rd place he was in until recently. Even if he doesn't catch Dean it will be enough to keep him in the race, considering the Iowa win. If Kerry surges and then drops, it could hurt him though, that I agree to.

I just can't see Kerry losing to Clark and I think that keeps him in the top two.

[NHPolitico]

Mort there is no way Kerry is going under 3rd place, hell probably beat Clark and move into 1st or 2nd. The only shot Lieberman has is the Feb 3rd primaries. I think he should concreate there instead of of wasting his little funds in NH. He should move to like AZ and DE  or drop out

Lieberman should move back to DC or CT and call it a day.  His campaign has been dead from the outset.  His apartment stunt just strikes people as odd here and we don't care for odd.  Odd Bob Smith is in Longboat Key, Florida, now, selling real estate.

[NHPolitico]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

I think Kerry could lose a lot in NH.

The Democrats want earnestly to nominate someone "electable", and seem to be vetting their candidates one at a time.

Kerry's the front-runner, so now he gets the media scrutiny and the attacks (Clark is already on him: "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer...but I've had the military leadership at the top as well as the bottom". Yeah, and these guys both want to hand over the war on terror to the UN).

If the play between the story in the media and the NH outcome begins to look bad for Kerry, he could come out of NH crippled, just as Iowa crippled Dean. Then the Dems will look at Clark or Edwards, whoever's on top.

Will they find anyone electable?

You're still hoping for Lieberman, huh?

I don't think Kerry can do worse than the 3rd place he was in until recently. Even if he doesn't catch Dean it will be enough to keep him in the race, considering the Iowa win. If Kerry surges and then drops, it could hurt him though, that I agree to.

I just can't see Kerry losing to Clark and I think that keeps him in the top two.

Yes, I agree with that. I was just trying to imagine a scenario where Kerry got hurt by NH, like Mort suggested.

I guess if you buy into Dean's argument that it was the media's fault that he lost last night, you could see Mort's scenario playing out.  Dean made Dean lose and Clark will be the person that causes him to lose should that come to pass. Kerry is a much better candidate than he was a year ago.  He's better with the soundbite. He's more on message. He's looser. He and Edwards both seem to be hitting their strides at the right time, but Kerry has the cash from his mortgages to make a real run now.  Edwards, I'm not so sure.  So, I'm saying that Kerry won't Dean himself (I like that Dean is such a useful verb now).  He did that last year and learned from his mistakes. Had he not shown any evidence of learning from his mistakes, I'd be worried.   If Kerry falters it will likely be because of his beliefs. Dean didn't really lose because of his beliefs so much as his style.

[NHPolitico]

Edwards has already moved past Lieberman in the NH polls, and he won't look back.

Hopefully Dean's crazy man routine and a poor showing in the Thursday's debates scare away enough voters.

I want to see something like

1. Kerry- 29
2. Clark- 27
3. Edwards- 18

Dean- 17
Lieberman- 7

I think we are going to see a lot of movement in the NH polls in the coming days.

That's a very reasonable prediction 17-20% for Dean is about right.  I think that you might be hitting high for Clark.  Kerry is here to be the "Clark" in this race.  He showed he could steal Dean's thunder already, so who knows with Clark. I think he may have a good shot at it, though Clark's ads are damn good.

[NHPolitico]

Sharpton is still in it, now that's ODD

Sharpton is in it as long as he's treated as a real candidate by the media and the other candidates. If he gets invites to debates, he'll stay in it.  I want to see Sharpton's primetime Boston speech.  Slap that donkey, Al!

[NHPolitico]

As New Englander Kerry hasn't credibility in South when Edwards is his mainrival.

Not so fast. Kerry has already built a very serious coalition of vets across the country and he has the support of fire fighters. Both are held in high regard down South.  If he plays that up and plays up his plan to not raise taxes but on the "wealthy" in order to pay for health care and education spending (College Tax Cut, etc.), and cut out corporate welfare, he can do well.

[NHPolitico]

I agree with you completely. Kerry could and should fail because of his flip-flops an foreign policy, and Dean failed because of his campaign personality.

What flip-flops? On the war? He's relaxed into a pro-war, anti-"its execution" position. He ran that way in Iowa and he should run that way here.  He has to be comfortable in his skin on the issue.

My point about the media is not that they cause these failures, but that they focus on perceived candidate weaknesses selectively, mostly focusing on the front-runner.

The issue there is that the media didn't really say that Dean's views are out-of-step with Dem voters. They focused on his style. That's what's easy to present on TV or in articles.  Frankly, there's hardly a dime's worth of difference between the policies of any of the Dem candidates, so there's not much there for the media to play off of.

If a candidate survives the scrutiny, he may go on to win.

I just don't think the Democrats know what they want this year, or, if what they want is someone "electable", perhaps there's no one who fills the bill. Thus, there's an interesting play between the media spin and the sentiment of the voters.

I think electability is an issue.  I think they think a candidate who voted in favor of the resolution, but bitched about the results ever since is more electable. I think they think someone who can be calm and relaxed and measured (as Bush is) is more electable-- and so on.  The candidates just have to play into that. The best actor wins!

[NHPolitico]

I think that up here in NH we will see Kerry as the winner. Kerry will use his surge from Iowa as an advantage and begin to poll ahead of Clark and take 2nd in the polls. Dean, due to his implosion in Iowa, will begin and continue to sink in the polls. Eventually sometime between now and the 27th, Kerry will eclipse Dean to be the frontrunner here in NH. I predict that a large number of Independents, moderate democrats, and possibly libertarians will vote for Kerry to give him a win in the primary. I also predict that Clark will win either second or third place.

Let me be the first to badger you about going to the Atlas Fantasy Election section of the board (all the way at the bottom of the forum index page). Register by replying to the thread and choose your preference in the poll in the general election thread. Don't ask why. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.

[NHPolitico]

Let me be the first to badger you about going to the Atlas Fantasy Election section of the board (all the way at the bottom of the forum index page). Register by replying to the thread and choose your preference in the poll in the general election thread. Don't ask why. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.

I haven't got 18 yet. When I do I promise to register.

Trying to corrupt juveniles are we, NH?

We're requiring voters to be 18 in the fantasy election?

[NHPolitico]

The Boston Globe Poll (released tomorrow) has Dean in second and Kerry first and Clark third, according to FNC.

FNC/UNH tracking poll (before Iowa's results!):

Dean 33
Kerry 24
Clark 18

I can easily see Dean's and Kerry's numbers flip-flopping soon.

ARG poll:

Dean 28
Kerry 20
Clark 19

CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll:

Dean 32
Kerry 25
Clark 21

Suffolk University of Boston for WDHD-TV poll:
Dean 23
Kerry 20
Clark 15

Kerry is very well-positioned.