In 2000, the combined Gore-Nader vote was 51.12% of the popular vote total - the vote for Bush was 47.87%.
Dismissing a major Green or other third party vote in 2004, and holding the “Other” vote at it’s 2000 total of 1%, Bush will have to add Gore and/or Nader votes to his total to win
The question is, how many?
The following 2004 scenarios illustrate how changes in the national popular vote will determine which way states go, based on 2000 voting margins in the states. More detail is found in my last post in the “No Nader effect this year?” thread.
SCENARIO 1 Bush gains 0.68% of total popular vote, loses FL and NH
PV: Dems 50.4% Reps 48.6%
EV: Dems 291 Reps 247
SCENARIO 2 Bush gains 0.82% of total popular vote, loses NH, holds FL – elected with minority of PV
PV: Dems 50.3% Reps 48.7%
EV: Reps 274 Dems 264
SCENARIO 3 Bush gains 1.93% of total popular vote, holds FL and NH, gains IA, NM, and WS
PV: Reps 49.8% Dems 49.2%
EV: Reps 300 Dems 238
SCENARIO 4 Bush loses 0.9% of total popular vote, loses FL, NH, OH, MO, and NV
PV: Dems 52.0% Reps 47.0%
EV: Dems 327 Reps 211
This thread is for the discussion of these scenarios and your predictions of what the national popular vote may look like in a Bush-Kerry contest.
He has to add 3 million votes just to make up for demographic trends among Hispanics and other minorities.
