US House Redistricting: Arizona

[Torie]

Last time the Commission hewed to the grid quite well

Lolwut. There's scarcely a line they didn't change.

Not really as to the basic design except for getting AZ-07 up to 50% Hispanic VAP. That was my impression anyway. Of course the lines change around the edges to unite stuff, and the Commission last time hewed to that metric pretty faithfully. The way the population lies in AZ, with most everyone living in Tuscon or Phoenix, makes it hard to play partisan games given the rules of the road.

[Torie]

After doing the VRA thing, I don't see much moving around of populations from the original 2001 grid and first draft map - just some rather empty land around the edges (except for Phoenix where they tried to unite cities).   Much of what you are saying does not involve that many residents I don't think.  And if for some reason it's a crime to put the Navajo and Apache Reservations in a CD that is majority Phoenix metro (where is that in the law again, and why is that?), that does not involve that many folks either, and you just punch AZ-05 more into the Phoenix metro area, and punch AZ-04 more out.

Why don't you draw your map Lewis for review?  Just a thought.   It doesn't take all that much time. This ain't Ohio.  

Oh, and I don't understand the "crack Giffords" comment.  And where's Gila River?  And it's not illegal to drop the Hispanic VAP from 54% or whatever to 50% either. And if it is not illegal, then you can't violate the state law rules. Even if you did everything possible to max the AZ-02 Hispanic take in Tuscon, it would not change the PVI much anyway - just make the lines more erose and cross more municipal boundaries. What you really need to do to prop Giffords up is the BRTD plan of shoving AZ-02 into Phoenix, and more out of Tuscon, and have AZ-01 drop Graham County, departing from the grid.  That would scream partisan gerrymander to me. Last time AZ-07 needed to go to Phoenix to get enough Hispanics. That is not the case now.

Do you agree with CARL that the third member of the Commission is a partisan Dem hack by the way? Just asking.

[Torie]

You aren't going to draw a map for me, Lewis?  

By the way, if you bounce AZ-04 from Maricopa County, and bounce AZ-05 from Northern AZ (except for the Hopi, and I think a long line running for 150 miles to get there via your kind of map is just ridiculous, but that is just me), that still leaves AZ-04 at about 56% McCain or so, and it will not pick up Graham County either if that is the goal. Why do the Hopi get such special treatment?  Lots for folks who dislike each other are put in the same CD.  The little problem that you have to get the Dems in the game is in AZ-04 is excising Mohave and La Paz Counties. Good luck.

I'm sorry if the grid was a GOP "gerrymander." I didn't draw it. To suggest that it is however, some might suggest borders on "hyperbole."  JMO.  And I didn't draw my map with partisan considerations in mind; I just commented on what the effects were of trying to hew to the state law parameters. However, you have many opinions about "communities of interest" in AZ (just how compelling they are I don't know), and certainly know the state better than I do.

Oh, and 10% of the  voters (unless Hispanic or native American), doesn't mean squat in AZ in general outside of the Phoenix and the Tuscon area in a few parts. The partisan divisions are just not that great, and after putting to bed the two Hispanic CD's, AZ is just too Pubbie.

[Torie]

In my opinion, it would be more useful to draw what you think the Commission will draw. That is what I did. Anyway can draw their dream, that comports with their politics. Are you sure that your opinions of what the Commission will draw, should draw, based on the law, aren't being influenced by which team you're on?  Be honest now.

By the way Lewis, Graham was put in AZ last time because to meet population requirements, that is what made the CD look nice and compact after Mojave was excised. You will find as you draw AZ-04 across the northern part of the state, including nothing in Maricopa, that you get your population fill long before you reach Graham. You will have to do a punch up to get AZ-05 to grab Prescott to achieve your goals, violating county lines, compactness and everything else - which this time I would think any fair minded person would say it just a Dem gerry - period.

Giffords was screwed by the way the population changed in AZ, forcing old AZ-01's population center point to move towards the northwest and out of the southeast - and by the way the VRA worked, which got the new AZ-02 up to 50% Hispanic VAP by sucking up carefully everything Hispanic in Pima and Yuma, without needing any of Phoenix.

Good luck Lewis! 

[Torie]

That thing that you drew is what you think the commission will draw or should draw if it is to best to comport with the law in your opinion, Lewis?  Really?

I see that you found a way to excise Prescott btw.

[Torie]

No - see caveats - but it is beyond reasonable doubt closer than the bizarre thing you drew for all points outside the Phoenix metro. Oh, and Cochise. Because I'm not actually sure I'm buying that one yet. Though it does make some sense (unlike your map).
It's not a high standard. Your map couldn't possibly get any grade better than an F.

Why don't you draw your best effort as to what does comport best with the law, or what you think the Commission will draw, and then I can grade your map.

After you do that, I will then draw another map that deals more appropriately IMO with your Maricopa phobia, which may -or may not - interest the Commission. We shall see.

Oh, I give what is apparently not your best effort an F too. We're harsh graders! 

[Torie]

Thanks Vazdul. I just fixed their map where it should be fixed per that drawing. Minor stuff really. So now we shall see just how much they modify it. If Lewis were the swing vote on the Commission, it would be thrown in the trash, and they would start over. The more clockwise you turn the outside of Maricopa wheel, the more Dem it gets. Lewis twisted the dial hard in that direction. 

[Torie]

OK, if the sun, the moon, and the universe itself revolve around the great AZ north, which must be cleansed of any Phoenix area taint, or we all go to hell, here is version two for Lewis to give me another "F" on (we may be trading "F's" for some time ).

It has an f'ing logic to it. I followed the f'ing roads, and know that Payson is a summer resort for LDS types trying to get out of the heat from Phoenix, and so on. I also knew Lewis would trash me if I dared separate one freaking native American from their precious homeland (except the Hopi of course in this beyond the looking glass world), so thus the shove of the "Great Red North CD" down to the border of that county that Lewis wants so bad (Graham and its LDS haven Safford), but can't have.  No he can't. Who knew that the Dems' great plot was to bag little old Graham in the Great Red North CD, but it is. Look for every argument they make to be geared towards the great clockwise twist. In this version, I accommodated their avaricious designs, but just enough to tease them - not enough for them to get what they want. I enjoy keeping them frustrated that way, yes I do.

Oh by the way, the La Paz thing was done (the "thing" being to excise it from Great Red North CD and dump it into AZ-08), because that is the only way to avoid bifurcating Prescott, which the Commission will hate. Little old Prescott has a lot of people!  

Oh yes, it's a drag to work out another color scheme when I change a map around. This time that took me about 25 minutes to get it to look a way that pleased me. I'm fussy!  Lewis probably hates my color scheme too. Good!  







By the way, that rounded northern line of AZ-05 is the Mongollon Rim. It is a quite spectacular feature from the air (it's a cliff that goes for 200 miles or more with the plateau on its north side, and the lower lands on its south side). Look for it next time your fly to LA from Dallas or some such place. You will fly right over it.

[Torie]

Very much like that map, Torie. It's quite like my map in post #69 and better adheres to the grid.

I thought my other map better adhered to the grid. Whatever!  Thanks.

And yes in looking back at your map, I see that yours is similar.  Well done sir!

[Torie]

Lewis I guess we are a mutual disadmiration society here. Your map splits the native American community, which was an issue with the Commission 10 years ago (yes, I have started to read the transcripts since you have made so many claims about what their motives were last time, mostly to try to find out what caused them to depart from the grid), that blue district is just a grab bag of Santa Cruz, Phoenix and Yuma, so we have the unnecessary grab bag troika again, and you trash the grid it seems, just like last time. So F again, although this version of yours is not quite the excrescence your last one was, as it wandered up into the Prescott area and beyond, separating that zone from the rest of the northern CD. Sorry. I just don't think you are drawing the CD's the way the Commission is likely to, but rather the way you want to do it that is not patently illegal - maybe.

It would also be more helpful if you would explain just why you think my second map sucks, as opposed to just saying that it does. That is just so Sam Spadian. Whatever.

By the way, per the American Almanac, the old AZ-07 CD pre the 2010 census was 54.6% Hispanic population, so if it wasn't 50% Hispanic VAP, it was close. The VAP thing emerged from the courts post 2001.


Addendum: Oh I see you did not split the native American community, so I retract that. So that is OK, but you do really ignore county lines don't you?  But that part isn't bad, and does match the grid pretty well. However, it makes it tougher to make AZ-02 50% Hispanic VAP without doing the number on AZ-02 that you did, because AZ-02 has to suck up more precincts in Tuscon that are less than 30% Hispanic, or make more of a hash there. In any event, the Dems are going to hate a 50% Hispanic VAP CD that is only 50% Obama. The Hispanics will freak. That is not going to happen. The yellow and blue seats don't make any sense to me however.

Anyway, per my retraction about the native Americans, I give your map a D now. And maybe doing a partial punch up into the St. John's area so that AZ-04 can take the rest of Yavapai, makes some sense, although I don't really see it as better, just different. The cut by AZ-08 into that county is just some empty rural precincts (just 4,900 residents are excised from Yavapai), not splitting up anything really. That would not be the case as much with a partial punch up into Apache County. In fact I see now that it would bifurcate St. Johns. Not good. To get rid of that would mean AZ-04 would have to punch into rural Maricopa to pick up about 4,000 residents - an option, but not perfect.

Addendum 2: I think they drew AZ-02 in the revision in haste just to meet the VAP requirement, looking at a map of Hispanic precincts that their advisors gave them, grabbing big green areas without many people, splitting county lines that are not necessary to split. It was just a way to tread water for the time being. To me, since it is not necessary to punch into Pinal, I doubt if that punch will survive.

Anyway, here is the map of the tweaks per what I said above. It works quite well actually (particularly after I noticed that I have two native American precincts in AZ-05 in Gila County by accident, that no doubt Lewis knew, but had no intention of telling me just because).  It does make AZ-01 look more erose however.

[Torie]

I change the color scheme to enhance the contrast so it makes it easier to see the CD's. When the lines move around,, sometimes two colors touch that should not. Yes, I noticed the two Apache precincts and fixed the map. That was a slip up. I knew about it and then forgot it. Globe can't go into AZ-01 without putting more pressure - too much probably - on the Hispanic VAP for AZ-02.  It could go into AZ-03 assuming it being "rural" trumps county lines. Whatever, it makes no difference really. Whatever makes the Commission happy.  

Payson is a weekend place for LDS types from Phoenix, and has a nice paved road right into the Phoenix metro area. Punching up from the Phoenix metro area, the two areas with the most ties are Payson and Prescott. The Commission mentioned that about Prescott 10 years ago. It is equally true with Payson these days. (It wasn't when I was a kid and there was only a dirt road to Payson, but then Payson had maybe 100 people as well.)

Good thought about Apache Junction. AZ-03 could take all of Gila (particularly with the two native American precincts gone that makes a lot of sense, and take in Apache Junction. It does make things difficult for the metro area split between AZ-06, 03 and 05, and that will take some work. That won't happen for a few days.

[Torie]

It just keeps getting better all the time.  







Or this actually, since Apache Junction is in Pinal.

[Torie]

It would also be more helpful if you would explain just why you think my second map sucks, as opposed to just saying that it does. That is just so Sam Spadian. Whatever.

Not fair really.  Whenever I give an answer, I always give my reasoning, and if I don't, you can always ask, because I don't give answers unless I have some solid reason(s) why.

Maybe you speak of the times when I don't give an answer.

Fair enough Sam. I was just frustrated in being told my work product sucked, without being told why. It turned out that Lewis had some good points, although I don't think that put my efforts in the fail zone, but everyone has their own opinion.

[Torie]

From what I can tell from Vazdul's screen shots, the Commission in its latest map is making the Hispanic percentages in the 2 Hispanic CD's, trashing municipal lines to a substantial extent. It is as if they used Dave Bradlee's software to see where the Hispanics are concentrated, and drew the lines accordingly. That map looks like a Pubbie wet dream to me.

[Torie]

From what I can tell from Vazdul's screen shots, the Commission in its latest map is making the Hispanic percentages in the 2 Hispanic CD's, trashing municipal lines to a substantial extent. It is as if they used Dave Bradlee's software to see where the Hispanics are concentrated, and drew the lines accordingly. That map looks like a Pubbie wet dream to me.

You mean they are going well above and beyond the 50% threshold?

Yep.  I think the D of J guy who gave a lecture to them terrified them with retrogression and CVAP chat.   The D of J guy also claimed that the department has CVAP data (of course that is just some statistical construct that could fuel litigation forever). He gave AZ a pretty good spanking.

The VRA is really a nightmare. And I wish I knew what electing a candidate of your choice meant.  I mean do you need more Hispanics to elect an Hispanic if a third of them vote for an Anglo over an Hispanic?  Anyway, I think that means that the AZ-02 Hispanic VAP needs to be maxed because it is close to 55% Hispanic now, and the D of J guy said dropping by more than a precent or two was a problem, and the Hispanic incumbent last time almost went down the tubes, in part because of Hispanic "disloyalty" to him (AZ has a lot of evangelical Protestant Hispanics who have abandoned the barrio mentality). He was saved really by white liberals in Tuscon. It is a real Alice in Wonderland world out there. Surreal really.

In reality, in part it means finding Hispanics who are Democrats, which of course suits Pubbie purposes just fine.

[Torie]

In the previous map, the Native legislative district included the Navajo and Flagstaff. Seems that's not working anymore. (The population on the reservation actually fell.)

I wonder if the D of J will have a cow if the native American minority is diluted in a district.

[Torie]

What we need are more lawsuits.  SCOTUS needs to rule again. Hispanics in places like AZ and much of Texas don't block vote, so the whole structure of the VRA as interpreted is absurd and needs to be revamped. Some of the D of J regs need to be dumped. The reality with Hispanics, and whites for that matter in most places these days, is that ideology trumps "race."  Same for blacks in the sense that they won't vote for a black Pubbie much, but for blacks there is an issue of whites tending to shy away from black Dems.

The lawsuits are going fast and furious in Texas, so presumably SCOTUS will have another chance this coming session to wrestle with the VRA versus Hispanics.

[Torie]

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map. The blue is Obamaland.  This sucks more of it than I ever dreamed of doing.   That is what happens when you chop Yuma and so forth; it pushes AZ-02 east. Go east young man!

[Torie]

Well, the City of Flagstaff is run by Dems.  THey turned the grid on its head.  Their gerry looks very nice though.  

The Hispanic CD in Tuscon Lewis doesn't give Giffords the time of day Lewis. She's F'ed with that map.

I've mapped it. The remainder of Pima is 50.4% McCain and just 48k short of a district - not enough to take in Sierra Vista. They did their homework.
Of course, that also means that the northern seat takes Cochise. Which adds up with the Colorado River district.
Heh, it's only fair. If R's can wetdream about 7-2, D's can wetdream about 4-4-1. Cause that's what all these Dem propositions amount to. Neither will get what he wants, of course.

Really?  I'd like to see the map of Pima that you did.  I have to catch a plane. Thanks.

The Flagstaff wet dream with its Colorado River CD does not take in Cochise by the way.  Did the Dems get their signals crossed?

[Torie]

You need to work on the bit below Lewis. That should up the McCain percentage as to the balance of Pima by a percent or so maybe - maybe close to 2%. You've dumped about a dozen or more blue precincts into AZ-01, plus one weak McCain precinct. Your north south line there is one line of precincts too far to the west, and you ignored the bulge. Naughty!  

[Torie]

The Flagstaff wet dream with its Colorado River CD does not take in Cochise by the way.  Did the Dems get their signals crossed?

Ah, the Flagstaff map as presented there doesn't align with the Colorado River idea at all - leaves far too few population by the Colorado, the remainder to come from the West Valley again presumably. I'm sure they wouldn't mind the "obvious" swap of Cochise for Prescott.

I'm sure they wouldn't.

[Torie]

Actually, it looks like the line is actually where I have the second set, which puts a lot more blue into AZ-01 if I'm right - even more than Lewis has. If so, it is a concerted effort by the Dems.  They can get plenty more Hispanics in Tuscon, but no, they want to go to Phoenix for them - and Pubbie Hispanics like those on the "wrong" side of the mountain in Phoenix next to Pinal County to boot. I guess their idea of "good government" is Dem government. Who knew?  



Anyway, this iteration won't see the light of day. It's absurd.

[Torie]

The Chairwoman Mathis is quoted as embracing competitiveness in the Phoenix area even though that is supposed to be secondary to other considerations which appear not to have been followed in the McNulty map, yet has no interest in competitiveness in the Tucson area.  The Pubs appear to have gotten a good swivving as it were.  It is interesting that the AZ commission site reports almost no substantive news, other than the maps, and their lawsuit to silence the AG. Nothing about votes, who is proposing what, what the issues are, or anything. It is kind of pathetic really. Anyway, it looks like the Dems have been given a couple of CD's, maybe as many as three, that otherwise were not really there. They must be happy.

[Torie]

Sbane, it looks to me like not too many Hispanics were put in the Hispanic CD from Tucson, and that the Tucson CD per eyeballing it is out of reach for the Pubbies, and that is what the paper says. Meanwhile even though it is specifically prohibited, now they are worried where the incumbents live in Phoenix. Sad.

[Torie]

Sbane, it looks to me like not too many Hispanics were put in the Hispanic CD from Tucson, and that the Tucson CD per eyeballing it is out of reach for the Pubbies, and that is what the paper says. Meanwhile even though it is specifically prohibited, now they are worried where the incumbents live in Phoenix. Sad.

I drew it out and it seems like most of the heavily Hispanic precincts are picked up by the Hispanic CD. Can't expect it to come in and pick up 30% Hispanic precincts. Also the district is about 50-48 Obama. I don't see how that is out of reach for a Republican. It's a swing district, which is precisely what the Tucson district should be.

Yes, I drew it too last night. It's lean Dem however, presumably, because AZ is McCain's home state - maybe even weak safe Dem. One would need to see other races to get a better sense of that. The Commission is still imo not following the law however, by putting competitiveness above other factors when it is expressly subordinated in the law to such other factors.  It is as if they are saying, or three of them, OK the VRA screws Dems, so the balance will be pro Dem to make up the lost ground.  We shall see if a Pubbie sink is carved out of the Phoenix - River area to complete the job.