I have prepared a spreadsheet, organized in order of PVI's. I have not adjusted them for the moment for local circumstances (e.g., towards the Dems in TX, TN and AZ, towards the Pubs in IL and maybe parts of NY). I did mentally make adjustments when handicapping races however. So below is my first cut, listing the races I think are in play. As you can see, I don't project much change in the partisan count, and consider it next to impossible that the Dems will take control of the House. It just isn't there - period.
And you can see how the gerrymandering wars, plus modern technology and sophistication, have stripped this nation really of competitive seats. What we have is a grossly inverted bell curve, that dips down to a handful of seats in the middle. Part of that of course reflects the sharp polarization at the moment in the nation at large.
Below that I give you a glimpse of what my master chart looks like. I am still working on it. If I can find a way to present it, maybe a dummy person could take over this thread, and those who want to have their own column would have their name above it, and they could adjust their column whenever they feel like it. Those who want to contribute would have the password for the dummy person. I would have to be satisfied that they would not commit chart "terrorism" however.
However, using a spreadsheet is much easier, but that would require emailing it back and forth between participants.
Anyway, it might be a fun way to do it, and make sense of who is disagreeing with who where. If it jells, perhaps the thread can be "stickied."
