Wisconsin Megathread

[Torie]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

[Torie]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

Thanks. Here are my numbers lifted from the WI elections website (maybe a few more votes drifted in after these numbers were put up). Interestingly, the host of Pub gerrymandering county chops for this CD were worth about one point of PVI.



The CD might be in play if Kind vacates. It trended Pub 2.8% in PVI from 2008 to 2012, and if that trend repeats in 2016, its PVI will be down to a Dem PVI of 1% (from about a 3.5% PVI in the 2012 election). The Dem rather unusual hold on more rural and smaller town based lower middle to working class whites in this part of the Mississippi Valley (Iowa too), seems to be eroding some at the moment. The Pubs might wish now that WI-07 has trended so hard Pub (also about 2.8% in PVI), and Duffy is so well ensconced, that they had not gone there.

Below are maps of the current WI03 and WI-07, and one that gets rid of the chops and smooths out the lines (the revised WI-03 kind of has a tornado shape, doesn't it?), making WI-03 0.7% more Pub in PVI per 2008 numbers, and WI-07 0.7% less Pub. The Pubs did a lot of chops and erosity for not much, which now appears counterproductive politically for them. Kind of sweet justice in a way, just like the Dems' "dummymander" in Illinois.

  

[Torie]

Off topic here I know, but below is a "contest" map using Muon2's rules more or less, respecting defined metro areas, avoiding highway cuts where possible (thus the chop of Shawano Cty, which could have been avoided by WI-08 taking Florence and Menominee Counties, but at the cost of about 5 more highway cuts), and the like. What's interesting, is that other than hyper Pub WI-05, which becomes even more so, and WI-01, which moves into the uber competitive category using 2008 numbers, nothing much changes, with the swing CD's moving less than a point in PVI. The  Pub "gerrymander," other than moving WI-01 (it's all about Ryan baby) a couple of points to the Pub side, was close to being all sound and fury signifying next to nothing. A "fair" map ends up to being close to the same place politically.

 

[Torie]

Abrahamson has sued, arguing that the referendum should only apply when her current term ends in 4 years.

Is being Chief Justice really that big a deal? I mean, on SCOTUS, all the Chief Justice really gets to do that gives the position extra power, is as an initial matter, determine who gets to write the first draft of the majority opinion for the side that has a majority of the votes.