In other news, PA in 2012 had a Dem PVI of 1.17%, and incumbents typically garner a few points edge, particularly competent ones. Comparing Toomey to Kirk (yes, a competent incumbent too), when Illinois is so much more Democrat (yes, Kirk is more liberal on social issues than Toomey, but Toomey these days I think has a rather moderate image on social issues, e.g. gun control), seems really misguided to me. PA has a Democratic lean, but these days it's relatively slight. The GOP trend in Western PA, has pretty much offset the Dem trend in Chester, Montco, Dauphin and Delaware counties, and perhaps then some given the fracking issue (among others). Toomey has far fewer problems than say Johnson, given that WI is more Democratic, and Johnson does not really have a relatively moderate image on social issues, and in my view is a less skilled politician than Toomey. JMO.
How much trouble does Mr. pbrower think Portman is in?
