Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal

[Torie]

My guess is it'll fail in the Senate by 1-3 votes. Can't see Schumer, Nelson or Menendez voting aye at the end of the day.

It needs a two thirds no vote to "fail" in this instance I think.

[Torie]

Nobody knows yet what is in those secret two side letters by the way. It all just gets curiouser and curiouser.

[Torie]

Menendez, Schumer, Cardin and maybe even some other Democratic senators (Booker?) will eventually vote against it, but they won't get to 13, which means that Obama's veto won't be overridden.

Whatever the chances of it being overriden in the Senate, it's effectively 0% in the House, so the Senate might as well just stay home. I assume the next POTUS can just negate the whole thing, since it is not a treaty, and this weird process was just a meaningless bone Obama tossed out to get something else done, I forget what. That question come to think of it, should be brought up in the debates.

[Torie]

Which of the Senators supporting the deal will not vote for the filibuster?

Coons will vote for cloture, and the undecided Manchin will vote for cloture, so the Dems need all four remaining undecided Dem senators to vote against cloture, to sustain a filibuster.