Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[Torie]

Bevin wins by 2 points. His campaign is really having momentum right now.

Bevin (R): 48.5%
Conway (D): 46.5%
Curtis (I): 5.0%

Grimes (D), Beshear (D), Harmon (R), Ball (R) and Quarles (R) win as well. Not sure about the first three, though, these races could go either way.

What is the basis for your discerning such momentum?

[Torie]

Westerfield 6,000 behind Beshear.

Jeffco's 5% remaining votes out are now all in included in the above, and Fayette and Franklin shot their wad sometime ago. So what is out appears to be all Pub territory, at least based on the map for governor. Bevin is leading in most Eastern KY counties by pretty big margins, so in the AG race, even leading by somewhat less, appears like it might well be enough. In the Grimes race probably not enough, but perhaps maybe.

[Torie]

Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort) Counties are all in.  It's probably all downhill for Democrats from here.  Grimes will likely hold on in the SoS race, but Beshear could be toast in the AG race.

Based on what?  Grimes was clinging to a thread in the last returns.

The outstanding returns. A 20,000 margin should hold now, as a sufficient pad for any eastern KY erosion, unless there are regional strengths not reflected in the Governor totals.