NH - Monmouth poll

[Torie]

This poll was completed before the debate, and it shows Rubio stuck in the pack.

Donald Trump 30%
John Kasich (14%),
Marco Rubio (13%),
Jeb Bush (13%),
Ted Cruz (12%).
Chris Christie (6%),
Carly Fiorina (5%),
Ben Carson (4%).

Sanders 52% (-1% from last poll)
Clinton 42% (+3% from last poll)

[Torie]

Sanders is bombing.

Yeah losing 1% from the previous poll definitely means he's finished.

Did I say he's finished? He'll win New Hampshire. But the majority of New Hampshire polls aren't showing 25% leads anymore.

You act as if the sky is falling because of 1% change. That is just statistical noise.

His point was not that Sanders is tanking, but rather that over time, Sanders has seen his lead erode down to around 10% more or less, depending on the poll, and that figure is not enough to generate more propulsion for Sanders, but rather is more of a yawn. A 20%+ margin would have given Sanders another kick start. That is all.

Oh, just for the record, if Bernie fails, unlike with Rubio, if and when he fails, and has more time, I have no interest in Bernie. Write that down Holmes for future reference.

[Torie]

Sanders has lost only 1% & the MOE is 4.4%. Clinton gains 3%. O Malley had 5% which is 0 now. So Clinton gains half of Malley's votes.

And interesting things is 58% Women & only 13% people between 17-35 in this poll, can't be any better for Hillary.

in Iowa between 17-29, the voteshare vis-a-vis total vote share was 18% which was considered much lower than Obama's 23% in 2008. Now in 17-35 (not 29), noway it is only 11% & not way is 35%(more than 1/3rd the electorate) between 50-64.

The demographic is complete BS & has very little young voter representation. 11% from 17-35, really?


If young people vote anything higher than the deplorable numbers suggested, it will be a really good win for Bernie. Anyways I personally think 15% win is very satisfactory, 20% is huge & Bernie should target 15-20% win which is still achievable.

Talk about a junk sample.  They think almost 90% of the primary is going to be people over 35?  Yikes!  What dumbs. 

In Iowa it was 18% (17-29) so 17-35 should be like 27% odd? 1000's of unpaid passionate people have gone to NH to canvass to bring a higher turnout .

In this age group Bernie is getting 80-90% of the votes, so if this was 27% instead of 11% (considering same proportion of young voters as Iowa) , the lead could be 20-22% comfortably.

We should study the break-up & methodology of all polls before commenting

Are you sure that the poll did not re-weight to make up for the small sample of younger voters?