Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)  (Read 30841 times)
Torie
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E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: February 09, 2016, 06:27:51 PM »

I'm sticking to my 57-42 Sanders win.  Early polling suggest 13-14% win for Bernie, and I'm going to suggest he overperforms them a little.  

I think you are very close to right, maybe a couple of points high, maybe a point low.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,103
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2016, 12:43:33 PM »

Hillary currently has a 15 to 13 delegate lead over Sanders, when including most delegates (4 still unallocated) from NH. I bet you won't hear the media speak of this.

Rightly so because that's superdelegates that weren't "won" last night.

The nomination is still ultimately a math game. You have to win those supers or your going down, hard.

If Sanders ends up winning elected delegates and the superdelegates give Clinton the nomination, there will be protests equaling 1968 Chicago.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves.  Much still needs to happen.

Of course, I still think Clinton will be the nominee. Yet any talk of superdelegates right now is stupid and insulting.

A delegate is a delegate is a delegate, super or not. She needs 2382 of them to win and currently has 431 or 18%. YUUUGGGEEE!

Yeah, given that everything is proportional in the Dem party, that is a really heavy loading of the dice for Hillary. Really heavy. But if Bernie has a clear majority of the delegates that were elected, and then is denied the nomination, Hillary will be even more wounded than she is now, and the Sanders supporters will feel that the game was rigged, the nomination stolen, and some might abandon Hillary one way or the other. This assumes however that the indictment thing is put to bed sometime during the process.
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