what states can obama win in the general that clinton cant?

[Torie]

Clinton seems in trouble in Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Minnesota, against McCain. Obama seems in trouble in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey and Florida against McCain.

This snapshot probably won't hold seamlessly, but it is all interesting.

I should add, that the electoral college only matters much if the two candidates are within 4% of each other, and then it is remote. 2% and the odds get higher that the electoral college will vary from the national vote. So all of this electoral college chat posits a close election. In that regard, I think it is more useful the plus or minus of a state versus the national vote, if one is going to ponder the electoral college.

[Torie]

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin. In a tight election, Obama does have electoral college problems. He drops votes in big states that are in play (NJ, Penn, Ohio, Florida and maybe Michigan), and what he picks up will be in many states that he will still lose. Sure he might flip Colorado that has a youngish population, and maybe Nevada, but in general, he has a problem.

I should add that 44% of Dems have a positive opinion of McCain per the CNN poll. So it won't take much for McCain to get a pretty good cut from Clinton voters.

[Torie]

Pennsylvania is a better definition of an old white electorate than Florida actually. I think Penn might be the "oldest" state in the nation. The Pittsburg metro area might be the oldest one in the nation.

[Torie]

Here is a state geezer chart. Yes Florida is number one (my bad), and Penn number two. Of course, the geezers in Florida are a quite different breed than those in Penn, and more diverse, and I suspect, considerably more wealthy down in Florida. Many of those in Penn are too poor to split. 

In median age, Maine is the oldest.

[Torie]

just wondering.

cant think of any myself.

Ha ha.

After the Wright affair, I have difficulty in perceiving a realistic scenario where Obama wins by a substantial margin.

And the moral of the story is...

That there is a rest of the story.