MI-EPIC/MRA: Obama down 4, but Obama/Clinton beats McCain/Romney by 7

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

And McCain is going to get 22% out of the city of Detroit, plus presumably a bit more from the undecideds? That means he is sweeping the white vote there. And McCain is going to get 15% of the black vote plus some of the undecideds?  That ain't going to happen.

[Torie]

Sam what do you think about that 73-22 number out of city of Detroit?  And meanwhile Obama is  ahead by 20% in Oakland County?

[Torie]

Sam what do you think about that 73-22 number out of city of Detroit? 

What would be the MOE on that type of subsample.  Not to mention all of these subsamples. 

I don't know, but Bush got 6% out of Detroit in 2004.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Clintonian action there. Those two numbers are the most interesting to me.

Macomb County is predictable because we all know what resides there in decently large numbers...

So as Macomb goes, so doesn't go Oakland County? Since Macomb is full of middle-class Catholic voters and Oakland is more demographically favorable to Obama, would it be fair to assume that McCain will either maintain or grow Bush's '04 victory margin in Macomb and Obama will either narrowly win or come close in Oakland?

I don't know, but the idea of Obama winning Oakland County by 20% is rather arresting.

[Torie]

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.

Ya, and McCain got the entire 15% plus side of the bell curve tail into his corner in Detroit and then some. LOL.