France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 16-24 June 2011, sample 470 self-declared socialists among 971 self-declared leftists

among leftist / among socialists
Hollande 37 / 43
Aubry 34 / 34
Royal 13 / 11
Valls 5 / 4
Montebourg 4 / 3
another one 1 / 1
none of them 5 / 3
don't know 1 / 1

Hollande 53 (+1) / 58 (+2)
Aubry 47 (-1) / 42 (-2)

The situation is roughly stabilized.
Hollande is of course the current favourite, being stronger among socialists, among older people and among middle-classes and (oh surprise) lower classes (except unemployed people).
Aubry has a majority only among women, less than 35 years old, CSP+ (), unemployed people.
That is to say Hollande is stronger among people likely to cast REALLY a ballot in the end...

But, of course, the race starts only tomorrow .

If Hollande is able not to slide too much behind Aubry (as she will surge for the next 3 weeks) and to appear quite strong in September, he may be able to overcome her during the hard part of the fight.

Reasonably, she should win, with all the apparatus behind her.
And, on the other hand, the usual rebellious behaviour may harm her more than anticipated.

[big bad fab]

BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better .

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.


As for the IFOP national poll, it confirms that IPSOS was rather an outlier, though Sarkozy isn't very high and the socialists and Mélenchon are in good shape.

[big bad fab]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

[big bad fab]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all.

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ?

Oh God, if it were a French forum, this was directly to the Goldmine !

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

[big bad fab]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

For me, it's as important as sugar and salt !!!!

Of course, till I don't put pieces of Schuman in my yogurt, all is well, I guess .

[big bad fab]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

[big bad fab]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.

Now 50-30, with 6000 votes counted, out of 10000 "paper" ones.
I'm not even sure that Internet votes will be better for Hulot (they should, but "old" Greens are really against this guy).

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

[big bad fab]

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.

You're right, in the long term, the Greens should prefer candidates like Joly.
But, well, she has a bad image and when she speak, she will scare many other potential voters.
And there is a real stake for EE-LV: under 5%, no public money !

[big bad fab]

What if some RVs who didn't vote eventually cast a ballott for the 2nd round ?

I mean, she'll win, that's quite sure, but, after all, nothing is entirely lost for Hulot.

And, of course, there is the possibility that he'll be candidate outside EE-LV, destroying himself, but also EE-LV as a whole.

Anyway, that's probably the best result the socialists could expect : Hulot down, but Joly forced to a second round, no big majority, a breat disappointment for Hulot, who has quitted his "business" and who may now look forward to becoming a candidate of his own.

[big bad fab]

Don't see EE-LV as a normal party !

Joly is ahead because of old Greens, of "traditionalists", of ideologues, of usual leftists inside the historic wing of "Les Verts".

Stoll is very representative of this very old line of municipal ecologism, the ecology of what is possible, the ecology of the neighbourhood.
Of course, he is not a Waechter, but still.
Alain Bombard was a bit like that, or Andrée Buchmann (another Alsatian).
5% is a fair result for him.

Lhomme, on the contrary, is rather low: I would have seen him at 10% alone, as the "activist" trend (Greenpeace, all the anti-nuclear guys, the anti-GMOs, etc) is pretty... active.

Well, I'm personally quite happy that this unkind and utterly proud man, Hulot, whom I practised when I worked inside Paris' civil service (and tried to -and partly succeded in- erase the local public subsidy for his foundation ).
But Joly is an old and very intolerant woman, no less proud than Hulot... that's not really better.
Anyway, this party is doomed with ideologues.
More reasonable people like Cochet and... errr... well... Cochet... do not manage to take power inside it.

Anyways, again, I think it's a good result for the PS.

The only good news of the day, as Lagarde, the hostages and the ministerial shuffle (and Tsonga ) have already put Aubry's announcement in the forgotten past of information flow.

Have you seen that Moscovici said he has made his decision but won't announce it before tomorrow morning ?
ROFL !
I "hope" for him that the hostages in Niger won't be liberated before Friday !
Fortunately, Bartoli has already been beaten .

[big bad fab]

Maybe I should make a DSK tracker again ?
SARKOZY PRESIDENT !

Candidacies at the PS primary are closed on the 13th of July: hurry up, Dominique !

(even if Hash is this thread's master, I'd say "please do not post about the case itself here, just about its possible political consequences")

I don't know precisely if you have to declare your candidacy yourself, or if internal rules are OK with another person filling your candidacy in your name, provided you've got all the signatures you need (no problem for DSK, as he has many absolute fans, like Michèle Sabban or François Pupponi, or even Le Guen, it seems, who are ready to sign something on July 13th, 23:59, if need be...

For the PS, the problem is more after the 13th of July:
what if DSK exits all this affair in a not so bad shape ? (well, even if Diallo made her little trick -remember what was my first thought about all this - the sperm is here...)
What if he comes back not as a rapist, but just as another "hot guy" ?

He may be tarnished enough not to be the Saviour as before, but not enough to be sure that Hollande or Aubry are, after all, a good choice.
Hollande or Aubry may well be transformed in a sort of political Damocles...

And what if he wins in front of US justice, just to come back while the primary campaign is on or, worse, while Hollande or Aubry is nominated ?

Wonderful suspense !

Yeah, really, 2011 is far better than 2012 for the French presidential election !

(and now that Joly may be the Green candidate, it will be interesting to hear her on DSK !)

[big bad fab]

FTR, Peillon rallied Hollande, yesterday.
Well, Hollande was in real good shape, as Aubry's announcement was completely sidelined.


But, of course, now, all may have to be restarted again...

Even Jospin has just said that DSK might come back .
Of course, Le Guen and Sabban. And... Borloo
Sabban has already called for the primaries to be suspended.

FWIW, I personally think it's too late for DSK. His image is really tarnished now.

But he may be a great nuisance for the PS. In this respect, he has still a great political role to play.
In normal times, I'd say he would himself drop. But, now, he has a personal stake: he must wash his name, including politically. So, he'll be around for many months, even if he isn't a candidate.

[big bad fab]

I've also said it and I agree with you ZuWo.
I think he's done.

But when you see that Julien Dray (he knows well....) said DSK would want to "eat the world" if he isn't condemned, it 's right: before, some doubted of DSK's real will to be a candidate and spend a very harsh period of one year campaigning, being attacked, etc.

Of course, now, he would be VERY determined to try to wash his name POLITICALLY.
Hence, maybe he wouldn't be a candidate in the end. But he'd mess everything up.

Already, Dray, Lang, Le Guen, Sabban (sure, not the big big guns) have said a comeback is entirely possible and the PS needs DSK...

Aubry is "very happy"... You betcha !!!

Look, Aubry shouldn't have been a candidate if DSK had been one.
Now, how will she position herself ?

It's a bit less negative for Hollande, except that, again, some moderates inside the party, the "social democrats", will be partly tempted to go back to DSK.
Maybe not those who weren't strauss-kahnians, like Peillon; but it'd be less simple for Moscovici or Collomb (and of course Cambadélis or Destot who have joined Aubry).

These news are very negative for the PS and for Aubry.
Not per se. Not in front of the French.
But because all the apparatchiki are now running in every direction. It will be a complete mess and trust Royal to worsen it .

[big bad fab]

Come on, that's not over: there may be no audience...
And many leaders are now ready to postpone the deadline for candidacies...

Aubry, Hamon, Désir are really embarrassed tonight.
All the strauss-kahnians are ready for a postponement.
Hollande "isn't against it at all".

The problem for socialists is now to see if the mess about procedures will mutate in mess among people, as usual. Or, maybe, for the first time for a long time, they'll be able to remain united.

Fortunately for them, Sarkozy is so hated...

FTR, Anne Mansouret, Tristane Banon's mother, has decided she won't be a candidate for PS primaries.
And Banon's lawyer says she may sue in France (but he's prudent and doesn't say she will do it).

[big bad fab]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

[big bad fab]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...

Sure, the trip to beat Sarkozy will be excruciating, even though probably successful.

In the interest of our country, I sincerely hope that the one who wins won't be too exhausted, because there are many things to do (preventing from spending too much and saving money !).
If the socialists win (even Aubry), good luck to them in 2012.

[big bad fab]

Just wait a bit .

IPSOS poll for Le Point, 1-2 July 2011, sample 956

DSK's political future ?
25% certainly no future
26% not likely
(51% no)
28% likely
14% certainly
(42% yes)

Among leftists:
52% yes 44% no
Among socialists:
57% yes 40% no

It's amazing to see that the line of divide is entirely political.
Whatever the reality of facts (we still don't know if he raped her or if he accepted to bunga-bunga what could be a prostitute), it's rather unsavoury.
What is more, he may have big problems with his spendings and the money of his wife.
Still, leftists, and even more socialists, believe in a political future for him.

The only result that is not political:
"yes" is at 45% among men and only 39% among women. But the difference is tiny and I don't know if we can entail many explanations from these numbers.

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 1-2 July 2011, sample 1000

Do you wish DSK comes back one day on French political scene ?

49% yes
45% no

Among leftists: 60% yes, 38% no
Among socialists: 65% yes, 33% no

So, DSK will come back, even though we don't know if it is as a candidate.

But he will probably be a liability for the PS, now.
First, the medias won't let him quiet.
Second, many FN voters may well support Sarkozy in the second round after all: between 2 "evils",...
Third, Aubry is weakened as, either she has no more reason to be a candidate (if he is one), or she will have to act under the shadow of a tarnished man (if he isn't). And Royal -though she is doomed- is thinking that she may have her chance after all, in the new big mess; so will become nastier. In a nutshell, the primaries will be more tense than anticipated 3 days ago.

What I want to underline -but maybe I'm completely under the charm offensive of Hollande - is that the only one who has, from the beginning, chosen a good line is Hollande.
His "normal" presidency is again a good thing, in comparison with DSK's rock star system, full of money, and Sarkozy's bling bling excitement, full of void promises.

Again, all these thoughts must be put in perspective: Sarkozy is hugely, deeply, strongly rejected by many people.
I think he will lose.
But it will be hard for the PS...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #9 - 4 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly, as he is always tested. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him.
As soon as pollsters test the new candidate of NPA, I'll include his name (Poutou).
Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
It's too early to revive a DSK tracker and, anyway, his old numbers wouldn't be adequate now.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

4 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,91
Mélenchon   6,57
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry      25,33
Hulot      7,03
Bayrou      6,27
Borloo      7,93
Villepin      3,27
Sarkozy      21,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      19,19

      

      

4 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,84
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   6,47
Chevènement   0,31
Hollande      27,97
Hulot      6,99
Bayrou      5,57
Borloo      7,33
Villepin      2,93
Sarkozy      21,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,60
   
      

      

4 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,78
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,28
PS      26,92
Hulot      7,00
Bayrou      5,85
Borloo      7,57
Villepin      3,07
Sarkozy      21,77
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,83

      

No new polls this week, so no big changes.
The socialists and Mélenchon are again at their highest.

All the rightists, except Sarkozy and Borloo, are at their lowest again.

Let's wait for Joly (no big change in the beginning probably, but a possible dip afterwards), for DSK possible comeback (less good for the PS) and for pollsters to begin testing Boutin and Nihous.


As for the second round tracker, I suspend it. There are really too few polls... Damn pollsters !

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 1-2 July 2011, sample 860

Those who forecast a DSK candidacy:
63% no (42% not at all, 21% rather not)
31% yes (18% rather yes, 13% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
59% no
37% yes

Those who wish a DSK candidacy:
54% no (42% not at all, 12% rather not)
41% yes (23% rather yes, 18% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
48% no
50% yes

This is the problem, whatever the titles of the medias): the opinion is very polarized and the left is itself quite polarized, but with a majority in favour of DSK's comeback.

Of course, all these polls were made just after Friday 1st of July and this new wave of images, news and comments ad nauseam.

Tristane Banon will make the mess last longer, in a way that is also bad for Hollande it seems.

After all, Royal may appear as a "safe" candidate .
Sorry for this bad joke .

Seriously, imagine the right had Fillon as a candidate or Juppé... well, everything would be possible !
But with Sarkozy, the PS has still a big margin of mistakes, infightings and shenanigans before really losing...

[big bad fab]

And Le Pen is a she, Xahar...

Fine graphs: trends are clear.

Joly will be substituted to Hulot as soon as pollsters take her into account in all their polls.
It's still not the case.

Thanks for having included Villepin: everybody who is above 2.5% deserves to be here .

[big bad fab]

I wanted to share a personal analysis, FWIW.

More and more, I feel that Hollande is the "provincial" candidate against Aubry, who is becoming the "elite" candidate.

Of course, both belong to the political and civil service elite, but, as we all know, image is more important than reality.

1- In polls' numbers, you clearly see that Aubry is stronger among upper classes (and also among unemployed).
Hollande is stronger among workers, employees, shopkeepers and tradesmen, peasants, retirees.

2- Inside the PS, Hollande is more supported by local bigwigs outside Paris: Gérard Collomb, Jean-Marc Ayrault, François Rebsamen, François Patriat, Edmond Hervé, Michel Sapin, Ries, etc.
Aubry is more supported by national apparatchiki from Paris: Cambadélis, Bartolone, Hamon, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, etc.

Of course, there are many, many exceptions, as Moscovici, Cahuzac or Touraine (for Hollande) are more "Parisians" than "provincials"; and, conversely, Fabius, Destot, Hazan (for Aubry) are real local barons.
But the feeling is here more important.

3- The national medias are clearly behind Aubry (to the point of outrageous partiality, believe me): Libération, Le Monde, Le Nouvel Observateur, but also Rue89, Mediapart, Slate.
The regional press is more on Hollande's side (Le Télégramme, Sud-Ouest, La Montagne,...).

4- And then, the personal image is more balanced, as Aubry appears to be "close to people".
But, still, Hollande's humour (not really a great presidential quality, I know...), his lack of ministerial periods (more an asset than a liability I think...) and his long tenure as PS first secretary make him more "popular" than her, sometimes wrongly seen as first a minister, hence a Parisian, and second the daughter of Delors, hence an elite woman.

5- As for manifestoes, Aubry sticks to the party's one.
Hollande has his line of "normal" president, again fashionable with new episodes of DSK affair.

All these criterions may well be less important than I think.
But it's fine to think a bit about all this now, as the primary campaign is on and will be shorter than expected.
Only 6 weeks between late August and early October for the socialists to kill themselves (), that's not very long after all...

[big bad fab]

I think nobody cares per se, but that it can count, if we remember this old trend in French politics: people against elites.
Of course, Hollande won't make his campaign on this in an explicit way, but it's like a background, that many people may feel almost unconsciously.

I may be wrong: Aubry may be seen as more serious and without any will to play the media game, which is a strength after 4 years of Sarkozy and after a Royal candidacy.

And, of course, those who will come to cast a ballot in the primary are likely to be more from the upper classes and from those who care a lot about politics.
And these primaries are for leftists, not for rightists or for the popular electorate of the FN.

But, still, I think there is something here.

[big bad fab]

In "other" news, but related to the question of Borloo's possible candidacy:

- Yvan Lachaud has just been elected to replace Sauvadet (new Civil Service minister) as head of the NC parliamentarian group.
He has received 13 votes, against 7 for Jean-Christophe Lagarde, 2 for Nicolas Perruchot and 2 for Philippe Folliot (don't cry, Hash ).
Lachaud is Morin's man, while Lagarde, nr.2 inside the NC, is now a devoted Borloo supporter.
(Perruchot is more a "liberal", in the Parti Républicain meaning of the word; Folliot is a firebrand outsider)

It's not really good news for Borloo, as Morin is trying to force a primary inside the new party, ARES (Alliance républicaine, écologiste et sociale).


The ARES, precisely, is more and more an UDF redux, I mean a smaller UDF, but with all the old trends.
- The Gauche Moderne (Jean-Marie Bockel) is the modern Parti Social-Démocrate (PSD)
- The Parti Radical (Borloo) is... the Parti Radical
- The Nouvau Centre (Morin) is a modern mix of CDS and Parti Républicain
- The Convention Démocrate (de Charette) is the current PPDF or Clubs Perspectives et Réalités
- I guess there will be "direct members", as the old Adhérents Directs.

The Alliance Centriste (Arthuis) is still outside the ARES, but will probably join it soon, and is a current CDS.

And, now, how surprising, the CNIP (Bourdouleix) may well join the ARES. In a way, it's a modern mix of Parti Républicain and old CNI. Of course, a former president of the CNIP is protesting agaisnt Bourdouleix's line, considering it's unreadable, as the CNIP was allied with the UMP, then Dupont-Aignan and even thought about supporting Boutin, in the recent years.

Nobody cares in France, but it's so exciting !

[big bad fab]

Speaking to myself again, I add that Jean-Michel Baylet, PRG leader, is a candidate to the primary organized by the PS.
Yes, this primary was intended to be enlarged to the whole left.

Not a good news for Hollande as some PRG parliamentarians (like Yvon Collin) had already rallied his candidacy.
Of course, Baylet won't make a Soviet score...

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for Les Echos, 5-6 July 2011, sample 1005

Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?

16% yes, completely
17% yes, rather
19% not really
43% not at all

Among socialists / among leftists
23 / 20
19 / 21
20 / 19
36 / 37

DSK is a gain in negative territory, even in the left.


OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro Magazine, 4-5 July 2011, sample 1002


Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?
35% yes
65% no

Among socialists:
55
45

Not exactly the same result, eh ?
Interesting to see that there is, in this poll, no real difference between men and women.


Do you think DSK will be a candidate ?
25% yes
74% no

among socialists:
31
69

So, we don't really know if DSK is in negative territory among the left, but we see that, though few have illusions on the possibility of a candidacy now, many on the left would still support such a candidacy.
This will fade away, probably, but that will still be a problem for the PS candidate's legitimacy if DSK is still around in September.

(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Would (s)he be a good president ?
among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 50 / 81
Aubry 41 / 81
DSK 44 / 67
Royal 21 / 45

Interesting to see Hollande among people over 60 years old: 68% ! (Aubry 45%)
Aubry and Hollande are on a par among 25-34 and Aubry only leads slightly among 18-24.
Hollande has a 56% result among men and 44% among women, Aubry has 42% and 40%.

Among leftists (412), ballots cast for:
Hollande 38
DSK 33
Royal 16
Montebourg 9
Valls 4
don't know 12

Aubry 37
Hollande 35
Royal 15
Montebourg 8
Valls 5
don't know 11

Aubry seems to be slightly up.
As I've always said, Aubry has a central positioning inside the PS and controls the apparatus, so she is very well placed to win the primaries, despite the fact she is a candidate by default.

But Hollande would of course be a better candidate in the real election, considering the electoral sociology, the fact that he'd be able to steal votes on the centre-right and among retiress, hurting Sarkozy, and that he'd be able to be more centrist and to crush Sarkozy between himself and Panzergirl.

Again, it's likely that the primary will be razor-thin between Aubry and Hollande.
I'm hungry !