France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 8-9 July 2011, sample 957

Just in time for tomorrow's tracker .

Hollande 29 / Aubry 26 / Royal 13.5
Sarkozy 21 / 21.5 / 23
Le Pen 13 / 15 / 15
Bayrou 11 / 10 / 13
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 10
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 7
Joly 6 / 6 / 10
Villepin 3 / 4.5 / 4
Boutin 1 / 0.5 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Chevènement 1 / 1 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1.5 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0 / 0

OK... so is Panzergirl really so down and Bayrou really so high ?
In 2007, a part of former Le Pen voters clearly voted for Bayrou, as he was perceived as a so-called anti-establishment candidate (it's not a joke... ).
Isn't the same phenomenon here or just a confirmation that LH2 isn't a great pollster ?

Mélenchon's recent surge isn't readable any longer in these results, while Poutou and Boutin, tested for the first time in an explicit way, are doing very bad.

No real surprise for the others: Villepin still bad, Joly a bit higher though not at Hulot's levels, Borloo slightly higher but not above 10, Hollande above Aubry. I don't even talk about Royal.

2nd round, as usual:
Hollande 60 Sarkozy 40
Aubry 58 Sarkozy 42

If the socialist win, who will you prefer as president ?

Among the whole sample / among socialists / among leftists / among rightists
Hollande 46 / 55 / 43 / 54
Aubry 33 / 39 / 46 / 16
none of them 15 / 3 / 7 / 27
don't know 6 / 3 / 4 / 3 (there is a problem here...)

And an original question:
DSK as PM ?
Among the whole sample / etc.
yes 35 / 46 / 39 / 31
no 63 / 53 / 60 / 67

So, no sex scandal in Matignon after 2012, please , even among the socialists.
Maybe DSK could join Tapie to become a comedian.
Or try to become TV anchor for a trash channel .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #10 - 11 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin appears in this tracker.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
Fortunately, there is no need to revive a DSK tracker and even less reason to follow a Royal tracker .
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

11 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,98
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,47
Aubry   25,61
Joly   6,50
Bayrou   7,65
Borloo   8,09
Villepin   3,64
Boutin   0,17
Sarkozy   21,66
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   17,61
      

      

11 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,18
Chevènement   0,54
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,45
Borloo   7,45
Villepin   2,87
Boutin   0,34
Sarkozy   21,42
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,47

   
      

      

11 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,51
PS   27,35
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,53
Borloo   7,71
Villepin   3,18
Boutin   0,27
Sarkozy   21,52
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,93
      

This week is really special, as we've lost 5 old polls (which were ponderated very low, but still) and the new LH2 poll from yesterday has hugely altered all the numbers.

So, Mélenchon's and Sarkozy's small rises are stopped.
Joly is a bit lower than Hulot.
Socialists are quite high and still on the rise, with Hollande above Aubry by almost 3 points now.
For the first time among the utterly irrelevant candidates, LO is above NPA. Hurray for real trotskyism !

Of course, the BIG, BIG news are Le Pen's "free fall" and Bayrou's sudden surge (threatening Borloo): 1.5 point in each case.
Maybe LH2 will be an outlier.
Maybe many French people are "lost".

Bear in mind that, in the previous LH2 poll, Bayrou was already "high" (in relative terms) and Le Pen already "low" ("only" 17-18, when she was at 20 or above everywhere else).

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

Overall, all these numbers are very good for the socialists:
- disappearing far left,
- no big Mélenchon's threat,
- Joly (obviously) disappointing,
- Bayrou and Borloo neutralizing each other,
- Sarkozy stalled,
- more little rightist or threatening-for-the-right candidates to come (Boutin, Nihous),
- and no direct effect of the release of "DSK 2: I may be back".

EDIT: with all these changes, why not updating your graph as soon as today, Antonio ?

[big bad fab]

All this for one poll which may be an outlier ?

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?

French medias do not order enough polls... What can I do ?
If you prefer to wait for your graph to be updated, no problem, you're the one who "draws".

We just replace Hulot by Joly today, that's all.
Joly wasn't tested by every pollster, contrary to Hulot. So, if I edit only the numbers when Joly was tested, it'll make some weird changes.
And, well, Hulot was more or less the generic Green candidate, so it's pretty accurate to keep him for the past. After all, if Royal was nominated in October (), the best thing to do would be to compare her to the generic PS tracker... (yeah, I know, I must stop dreaming...)

[big bad fab]

Well, it probably means that, in fact, many voters aren't so sure between Aubry and Hollande.
A razor-thin result will be fine for the right, of course...
Anyway, this is a big rise for Aubry: she is regaining all the points she has lost since April.
The problem for her is that she may not be able to maintain this wave until October.

For the moment, I don't know if Aubry's attacks on rumors is a good idea.
Of course, she is at the centre and forces every other socialist candidate to defend her...

But, at the same time, many French people weren't aware of these rumors...
And as many are wrong but at least one is confirmed by many people who have no advantage in it (past addiction to alcohol - which isn't a big deal, BTW), she may be spreading herself rumors she wants to kill....

That's a dangerous game, especially when so many rumors existed on Sarkozy and especially when Borloo's own trend to drink a lot is a subject of open jokes, notably in leftist medias.

We'll see if it's a good thing for her, but I'm not sure.

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

[big bad fab]

IPSOS poll for France Télévision, Radio France, Le Monde, 8-9 July 2011, sample 955

Aubry 29 / Hollande 29 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 22 / 22 / 24
Le Pen 18 / 17 / 18
Borloo 8 / 8 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5 / 6
Joly 7 / 7.5 / 9
Mélenchon 4.5 / 5 / 7
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 3
Poutou 1 / 1 / 2
Villepin 3 / 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

With LH2 in one direction and IPSOS in the other, they are now closer from each other, except that, in this one, there is no Bayrou surge.

Sarkozy is a bit safer from Le Pen's threat, who was already lower in IPSOS.
But she doesn't fall at 15 or below here.
IPSOS isn't as reliable as in 2007 but I think it's still better than LH2.

Socialists are high but were very high in IPSOS poll already.

Mélenchon's surge seems to have ended.
Joly is a bit higher.
Borloo has stopped his fall.
In the titanesque marketing battle (name recognition) inside the far left, Arthaud is remarkably... "high".

Of course, the big news is that Aubry is on a par with Hollande for the first time since DSK's explosion.
Royal is Royal: I don't understand why pollsters still test her, while they don't bother to include Nihous.

[big bad fab]

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? How would this affect Hollande ?

Her lawyer has already said that Hollande was well aware of the problem, though he says that he only knows the "great lines"...
This lawyer is a piece of crap who wants to make his own advertisement, but, with current French medias, even this sh** could affect Hollande.
After all, if Aubry makes all this buzz with rumours, everything could go in any direction, for the moment...

So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know.


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...

Le Choc des Titans

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for RTL, Orange and regional medias, 8-9 July 2011, sample 966

Aubry 28 / Hollande 31 / DSK 20
Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 25
Le Pen 17 / 16 / 18
Borloo 7 / 9 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 4 / 7
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Boutin 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0 / 0
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Poutou 1 / 0 / 0

No Royal hypothesis, but one with DSK : the latter is more and more "segolenized" .

Anyway, a poll pretty much in line with IPSOS one.
Bayrou is "fine" but not that high anf Panzergirl has lost her clout of the beginning of the year, though standing clearly above 15.
Mélenchon has stopped and Joly doesn't shine.

Another good poll for the socialists.
Hollande is again above Aubry.

What is wonderful with BVA is that we know how the first round voters would vote in the second :

Aubry 58
Sarkozy 42

Hollande 58
Sarkozy 42

DSK 54
Sarkozy 46
DSK for PS candidate !

Well, some numbers aren't surprising:

26% of Le Pen towards Aubry, 45% for Sarkozy
22% of Le Pen towards Hollande, 51% for Sarkozy
usual results for FN voters, with Aubry, who is more on the left, being slightly better, probably among popular electorate

91% of Joly towards Aubry and 6% for Sarkozy
83% of Joly towards Hollande and 6% for Sarkozy
Aubry better than Hollande here
it's high for the socialists, but it's Joly

88% of Mélenchon towards Aubry, 3% for Sarkozy
82% of Mélenchon towards Hollande, 4% for Sarkozy
extreme-left numbers are silghtly better than Mélenchon's

66% of Bayrou towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
72% of Bayrou towards Hollande, 18% for Sarkozy
we already knew Bayrou voters hate Sarkozy, it's confirmed
Hollande better than Aubry, no surprise

33% of Borloo towards Aubry, 60% for Sarkozy
52% of Borloo towards Hollande, 42% for Sarkozy
this is the most amazing result: we've already seen these big losses for Sarkozy among centre-right voters; it's a big weakness
and Hollande is far better at benefiting from it

67% of Villepin towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
47% of Villepin towards Hollande, 34% for Sarkozy
well... this is were tiny samples can't be viewed as very scientific...
not that Villepin voters love Sarkozy (again, no surprise here), but Aubry being better than Hollande ?!?

the most laughable results are the following:
81% of Boutin towards Aubry, 19% for Sarkozy
49% towards Hollande, 47% for Sarkozy
ROFL !
though Aubry, who is married, though divorced, who has a straight talk, who is not a "star" at all and who is Delors' daughter, may please some "values" and pro-European voters, this difference is properly ridiculous


In the same poll:

among the leftists / among the whole sample:
Aubry 35 / 27
Hollande 34 / 31
Royal 11 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 4
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 2 / 2
none of them 8 / 17
don't know 4 / 4

They have dared to test Baylet !

Another poll where Aubry and Hollande are now on a par.

And another funny hypothesis... (they dare to do this sh** while they aren't testing a second round Aubry-Hollande... ah, French pollsters )

Aubry 28 / 22
Hollande 27 / 25
DSK 19 / 16
Royal 10 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 1 / 2
none of them 5 / 13
don't know 4 / 4

[big bad fab]

Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them...

As for Hollande, nothing more than Banon's lawyer attack recently.

Of course, all this is now old story: the rumours are already part of French political life for many years:
rumours on Royal and Louis Schweitzer (and other men) in 2007,
on Hollande and Hidalgo in 2007,
on Dati's husbands and Dati's daughter's fathers since 2008 (the list was long and weird: even Aznar !),
on DSK (well...),
on Sarkozy's supposed mistresses (pre-2007 and post-2007) and on Carla's "other" private life,
on Borloo's own near-addiction to alcohol,
on Moscovici's private life,
etc.

But Giscard's, Mitterrand's and Chirac's mistresses were always great rumours...
Mitterrand shortening his teeth, hiding a daughter, being ill (many revealed to be right in his case...).
Pompidou being ill too...

All these rumours aren't from the far-right and the far-left: you'll always find political zombies in each party ready to fight by all means...

Rumours are disgusting, but they belong to human nature, it seems.

[big bad fab]

Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)

Yep. 12 weeks.
But, you know, many Catholics in France are leftist ones and very, very tolerant, despite the Church's awful image (as an institution) in French medias...
They only see Jesus as a Gandhi, not as a founder of moral values and of a faith that needs personal efforts.

If I may... that's only personal:
I think there are 4 main trends in French catholicism:

- the vast majority of people still declaring that they are Catholic, while they go to a mass at most for Christmas and Easter (and when grand-daddy died): 80% of French Catholics (who are themselves some 60% of the whole population),

- a majority among Catholics who go regularly to a mass are in fact heirs of JOC-JEC-JAC, the MRP, the Sillon, all the social catholicism (which has recycled itself in Delors and all the moderate socialists of the North-West, many of them "rocardians": 15% of French Catholics or three quarters of the "real" Catholics,
they are the CCFD, Secours Catholique, Emmaüs, Scouts de France crowd, to be simple

- a minority which will be bigger in the future in RELATIVE terms only (as the second category is less and less numerous: they are old, they are the "1968" Catholics in a way), which go to the mass every week, which abides by Vatican laws, but which is pro-European, traditional only on values and family, proud but respectful and very sceptical on capitalism: 4% of French Catholics or one fifth of the "real" Catholics,
they are the Emmanuel, Renouveau, Scouts unitaires, AED, Alliance pour les droits de la vie crowd, to be simple

Boutin is a mix of these 2 categories, as she isn't so rightist on Europe, on social matters, on poverty, on economical system; she is "personnaliste" and she refers to Christian philosophers of the 1920-1950s, like Maritain or Mounnier.

- a tiny minority of "traditionalists" or "tradis" (on religious matters) and "integrists" (i.e. followers of Mgr Lefebvre), which are inside the FN (Bernard Marie/Antony) or very close to it (Club de l'Horloge, MPF): 1% of French Catholics or 5% of "regular" Catholics.

Villiers was somewhere between the 2 last categories, closer and closer to the last one, though.

It's not very precise, but that's quite accurate, I think.

[big bad fab]

Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.

[big bad fab]

That's not as simple:
you can be a social catholic and vote for the centre right or for Bayrou: these catholics are numerous, believe me.
(Ciotti, Luca and Lefebvre aren't ALL the right, you know ...)

And Sarkozy has clearly lost them, as many are able to vote for Hollande or even Aubry (they already vote for the PS in Brittany or Pays-de-la-Loire: Le Pensec, Josselin, Poignant, but also Ayrault, Monnier (former Angers' mayor), are all examples of this "second left" which was able to woo some social catholics: MRP first, CFDT (and CFTC) spirit, social-democracy with christian past.

They were UDF voters and bitterly regret the old UDF (see how the UMP has problems in the North-West).

[big bad fab]

CSA poll, for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 11 July 2011, sample 850 RVs out of a total of 1005

Hollande 26 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 26 / 27 / 28
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 17
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 8.5
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 6
Borloo 8 / 9 / 11
Villepin 2 / 2 / 2
Boutin 0.5 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 2 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Well, well, well...
In this one, this is Sarkozy who is surging a bit. Far above Le Pen, he is now on a par with the socialists (being even above Aubry !?!).

No Bayrou surge. No Mélenchon fall. No Joly effect (but it was tested before her nomination).

This series of 4 polls (LH2, IPSOS, BVA, CSA) may be summarized by saying that there is something moving. But we don't know what.
After all, maybe it's just that French people are eager to begin their holidays and don't care so much about politics .

Sarkozy remains deeply weak and, even though he seems to be less threatened by Le Pen, Panzergirl is still disturbingly high, above 15.
How will he be able to maintain Le Pen lower while trying to bring back all those voters on the centre-right who are happy to answer "Borloo" in opinion polls but who are thinking hard about voting for Hollande (or, at least, to cast a blank ballot in the 2nd round )?

The socialists have managed to clear any other leftist threat:
Mélenchon, if he surges at all, is unable to climb above 7;
Joly is a weak candidate for the Greens;
the Trotskyites have returned to anonymity.

As for Bayrou, he is mostly followed by a small bunch of "extreme-centrists", anti-establishement people who would otherwise abstain. Even if he makes progress, it's on the centre-right, among moderate people who hate so much Sarkozy that they are ready to vote for anybody else. Votes that can be gained by Hollande easily or even by Aubry between the 2 rounds, when she'd call back Daddy .

Still, the left is hardly at 40%. This is not a very high basis considering the weird momentum that often emerges in a presidential campaign.

What is great for the left is that very few voters for the Green candidate seems to "betray" in the 2nd round (usually, it's more 75% for the left; now it seems to be 90%, with Sarkozy grasping almost 0). Among FN voters, it's as usual (50% for the right, 25% for the left, 25% abstaining). And, what is more, they are able to grasp a majority of Bayrou voters and more than a third of centre-right voters.
Sarkozy has started too late his "presidentialization": he should have really strated before the summer of 2010... Even though the left isn't so strong, he may well make Hollande or Aubry win.


In the same poll (beware, it's only among those who are sure or likely to vote in the primaries, though we don't know how many they are):

Among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 32 / 41
Royal 16 / 11
Valls 3 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 1
Baylet 1 / 0
none 4 / 0
don't know 9 / 4

The ghost of Reims 2008 is entrenched .

Hollande 48 / 52
Aubry 43 / 42

Hollande 65 / 73
Royal 25 / 21

Aubry 61 / 74
Royal 28 / 23

Hollande is still ahead, but everything is open.

[big bad fab]

Our problem, currently, is that no pollster seems to be coherent with himself over the time and with at least some other pollsters...

CSA was bad in 2007, but it seems slightly better now.

I don't know what to say nowadays.

IPSOS was the best, but has clearly fallen in quality.
IFOP was very good and still seems good, but not as good as before.
SOFRES is clearly down.
BVA, CSA and OpinionWay seems better, but at which level ?
LH2 doesn't seem to have made progress.

As for events that could help Sarkozy, I see none.
I don't dare to say that the new positioning of Sarkozy is already working: being more presidential, being outside the constant flow of news, seeming a bit more moral and humane.
Saying this would be ridiculous, unless we have 3 or 4 polls to confirm it.

Does Greece begin to have an effect ? Why not.
Some French people beginning to be afraid of high spendings and debts and thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Sarkozy would be better to deal with these financial problems.

Wars and foreign policy ? French people don't care about them.

This is a mystery (except if it's just CSA, like Bayrou's surge was just LH2...).
That's what is bad for the socialists, as it can be a deeper change.
But, frankly, Sarkozy is so down... and is so bad a second round candidate now, if you see how badly Borloo's voters agree to support him in the second round, that it is still a shoe-in for the PS.

[big bad fab]

If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know .

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now...

[big bad fab]

My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

You don't really know what Valls thinks, eh ?
Too rightist for you...

[big bad fab]

OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 13-15 July 2011, sample 1113 self-declared leftist people, out of a whole sample of 2715

Among leftists / among socialists / among those sure to vote
Hollande  42 / 45 / 46
Aubry 34 / 35 / 30
Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 7 / 3 / 7
Valls 3 / 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0 / 1
no answer 13 / 5 / 1

The structure is coherent with other polls (the order of the candidates, Hollande stronger among socialists, Aubry and Montebourg stronger outside the PS),
but the levels don't reveal a rise from Aubry, here.

And Hollande has 2 other assets:
being stronger among those sure to vote
and being strong in the 2nd round:

Hollande 56 / 57 / 62
Aubry 44 / 43 / 38
no answer 17 / 9 / 5

Remember, though, that the sample of those sure to vote is tiny: 211.

Among those who vote in the first round:
Royal "gives" 39% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Montebourg gives 40% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Valls gives 59% to Hollande and 13% to Aubry.

Seems quite logical.

So, either OpinionWay, as a rightist pollster, has rounded up numbers in a pro-Hollande way, or Aubry's little rise, seen in some other polls, has already faded away.

In any case, the race remains close, though with a small lead for Hollande.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #11 - 18 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin is in.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

18 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,21
Poutou   0,75
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry   26,57
Joly   6,05
Bayrou   6,84
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   3,34
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   23,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,03
      

      

18 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,35
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   5,68
Chevènement   0,26
Hollande   28,64
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   6,59
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,96
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,63
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,14
      

      

18 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,30
Poutou   0,65
Mélenchon   5,69
Chevènement   0,25
PS   27,81
Joly   6,10
Bayrou   6,69
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   3,11
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,82
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,50
      

With more new polls this week, the tracker is "normalizing".
And it's still good for socialists.
The far-left is overall stable, though Arthaud is a bit on the rise, but Mélenchon is again down.
Joly is weak and Bayrou is down again.
Borloo is stalled but at a high level for Sarkozy's taste.

The only bad news for the PS is of course that Sarkozy has clearly surged a bit while Le Pen is now far behind him. All the other rightist candidates are too small to harm Sarkozy.

I hope there will be another poll before the "black hole" of August recess, but I'm not sure (math, any info about that ?)

Otherwise, we'll have to wait for late August, with summer meetings of French parties, especially the socialist one at La Rochelle, where things can be more tense, and early September, when Hollande will be obliged to go to the police to answer some questions in the DSK-Banon affair, as it is now known.
Not that Hollande is at risk, but you know medias... if you play with your children with a plastic gun, you're probably a criminal, trafficking drugs...

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France Soir, 19-21 July 2011, 948 RVs out of a whole sample of 1002

Hollande is still strong, Aubry is weaker, Le Pen still high, Sarkozy not completely beaten, Joly marching towards the left, Nihous not even a statistical noise.

Hollande 28 / Aubry 25 / Royal 16
Sarkozy 23 / 23.5 / 25
Le Pen 20 / 20 / 20.5
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 8.5
Bayrou 6.5 / 7.5 / 9
Joly 7 / 7 / 9.5
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 6
Arthaud 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Poutou 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Chevènement 0.5 / 1 / 1
Villepin 2.5 / 2 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Nihous 0 / 0 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0

Remember that Le Pen was always high in IFOP polls.

Astonishing tio see the far-left, including Mélenchon, very low, while Joly is back to Hulot's levels: probably an effect of her view on July 14th military parade.

Nihous is surprisingly low. But remember this is an Internet poll, so rural people are probably less numerous in the sample.

Borloo and Villepin are stable. Villepin is really down. Many people around him are leaving him, including Jacques Le Guen, deputy from Finistère (Hash knows him well).

Bayrou is a bit higher since a few weeks. Maybe some people who formerly supported Hulot.

What is better for Sarkozy and not so good for Aubry is the second round poll:

Hollande 57
Sarkozy 43

Aubry 53
Sarkozy 47

While Hollande was at 60 and Aubry at at least 58 since mid-May, this is a little bounce for Sarkozy, especially against Aubry.
57 is still a huge margin, but 53 begins to be dangerous.

Of course, that's only one poll.

[big bad fab]

If Sarko does win, it'd be the fightback of a century. I don't think any incumbent president in France has been down this much less than a year out and managed to win.

Yeah, indeed, that would be.

A recent IPSOS poll which I didn't publish by laziness () put people who don't want Sarkozy to be reelected at 60% (because, the left is almost unanimously against him and because there are too much defectors in the right: hence the fact that Aubry is a worse candidate, as she would re-mobilize rightist people around Sarkozy).

But, he is bouncing back a bit in "popularity" numbers (though I find this kind of polls completely useless to predict an election result; they are just a mood).

Don't worry so much, Antonio, he is really hated.
And well, leftist medias are very, very, very active. And leftist journalists inside "neutral" medias, too.

And there is one thing that can kill him forever before May 2012: Karachi bomb attack affair.
That would be a very BIG story.
And it could very well "explode" at the end of 2011 or in the beginning of 2012.

[big bad fab]

I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).

Mitterrand 88 and Chirac 02 benefited from cohabitations.
Chirac 95 was almost in the opposition and Sarkozy 07 too ("la rupture").

Even in 1986, after a great comeback from the 1984 abyss, the left lost.
And 1995 didn't save the left after the 1993 abyss.

I remember the 1991-93 climate (Urba affair, Cresson's utter failure, Mitterrand's unfair sacking of Rocard, intricated affair of Carpentras cemetary, no intermediate elections in 1990-91 to let some pressure out, etc.): it was heavy against the left.

It's quite comparable in some respects against Sarkozy now, even though DSK has allowed the right to reduce a bit the threat, but only a bit.
Again, if "affairs" come back (Karachi is really dreadful for the right), Sarkozy is lost.
And without affairs, well, the path is really hard.

[big bad fab]

Yeah.
And Sarkozy is even in worse situation when you look at other pollsters, as Chirac II is a bit less low than here.
And Chirac was very low in year+4 because we were in the middle of the CPE crisis... just some months after the rebellious suburbs exploded.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #12 - 25 July 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

25 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,70
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry   26,32
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   7,01
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,51
Sarkozy   23,29
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,42      

      

25 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,47
Mélenchon   5,24
Chevènement   0,29
Hollande   28,55
Joly   6,29
Bayrou   6,62
Borloo   7,95
Villepin   2,88
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,79
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   16,73
      

      

25 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,56
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,65
Joly   6,26
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   2,96
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,99
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,00



This is the interest of a tracker: while we've got some quite different polls with various trends, the overall result is pretty stable.

So, no big news in the tracker, even with one new poll this week.

I'm afraid we now won't have any more poll before something like the 25th of August.
We'll see.      

[big bad fab]

Going back to French politics, I have been thinking a lot about this article in which Hollande warns of the PS "disappearing" if it does not win the Presidency.

I'm not sure if he's being hyperbolic here. From what I know of North America, political parties here alternate between long spells of power and opposition, but survives so long as they don't collapse after greatly extending their stay. In France power is obviously concentrated in the President, but is the opposition really stripped of all power past the five-year elections? Or is it that the party will tear itself up and leave the left bickering amongst itself, like what it was before Mitterrand?

Nowadays, a great party doesn't disappear so quickly in France, for one big reason: money.
Public money is given to the party based on his electoral results, especially in the legislative elections that follow the presidential one.
So, harsh bickering inside the party, yes, complete explosion, no.

Oh, sure, some loonies like Royal or complete outsiders like Valls or Gérard Collomb could leave the party, but that's all.
Remember the great success of Chevènement creating his own party ?
Remember the great success of Bockel creating his own party ? Without Sarkozy giving him a portfolio, he'd be nothing, and without Bockel taking profit from Borloo's noises, he'd again be nothing now.
See the great success of Mélenchon outside the party ? Yes he has some support, but what is his added value to the PCF ? 3% at most, in the good days.

Conversely, look at how it's difficult for some centrists (Méhaignerie and even Daubresse, though a Borloo's friend) or radicals (Léonetti) to leave the UMP.
Even weakened the UMP won't explode either. Some small parties may appear close to him, but that's all.

Only someone who would be extraordinarily popular outside the parties may provoke a big one to disappear. I see nobody like this and I think the times aren't for a de Gaulle any longer.

[big bad fab]

As for Hollande's interview, I think it's a mistake from him.
Of course, he hasn't said exactly what medias are reporting (as usual... see Fillon's speech on Joly...) (Hollande talked about a "risk" of disappearing, not that it will disappear if it loses), but the word "disappearing" won't please the socialist base.
Fortunately for him, it's late in July... and nobody is listening.

Baylet is saying that Harlem Désir, interim first secretary of the PS, hasn't understood that the primary is a left one, not a socialist one.
Baylet isn't invited to PS summer "univeristy" in La Rochelle...
I don't think Baylet will have a great impact. If he is candidate until the vote... A big "if", I think, as his only aim seems to make a lil' mess to negotiate as many constituencies as possible from the PS. Yeah, remember that the Greens are ambitious now and that Mélenchon is far more difficult to please than the old PCF apparatus... So, the PRG faces a huge competition from the rest of the left...
And if Baylet keeps campaigning until the first round of the primaries, he'll probably steal 1 or 2 points from Hollande, which isn't good news for the latter, as the results may well be in a very narrow margin.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 21-29 July 2011, 565 self-declared socialists among 1093 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1956

Among leftists/among socialists
Hollande 42 / 48
Aubry 34 / 36
Royal 13 / 9
Valls 4 / 2
Montebourg 4 / 2
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 2 / 2

Roughly, we are back to the situation immediately after DSK fell and when Hollande became the favourite. This is good news for Hollande as Aubry hasn't surged very long.
But maybe it's again too early for Hollande to re-surge .

Second round:
Hollande 55 / 58
Aubry 45 / 52

Among leftists, it's the highest result ever of Hollande. Among socialists, it's back to the period just before Aubry's candidacy.
Good news for Hollande again, especially as he is still higher among socialists than among the whole left: socialists are likelier to vote.


Sorry for the tracker, but I'm really on holiday, so it'll come when I'm bored .