France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Very interesting maps (I'm too busy these days, but I wanted to do these, plus some with a comparison Hollande+Montebourg+Royal with Hollande 2nd round for example):

it's already very clear: appeals from candidates of the 1st round were of no effect, except a bit from Royal.

That is not logical: on the contrary, it's quite surprising. But it confirms me in my thought that the 1st round was the outlier.... not the polls....

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #26 - 31 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,36
Sarkozy   23,66
Le Pen   16,37
Bayrou   7,49
Mélenchon   6,28
Joly   4,46
Villepin   1,94
Morin   2,05
Lepage   0,20
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,47
Nihous   0,11
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #27 - 7 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84
Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,58
Sarkozy   38,42

One new poll this week, from IPSOS (still not published on my blog, but I was in the hospital this week and very busy at work ).

Hollande is still on the rise.
Mélenchon is down again, while Joly is slightly up and Bayrou slightly down: all the trends which seemed new are stopped.
But, but, but, this is IPSOS which seems to undervalue Bayrou this year and overvalue Le Pen (she is indeed up again in our tracker).

Hollande has lost enthusiasm I think, but he is still very, very strong.
It's too early to say if the crisis is benefiting Le Pen or anyone else.
Hollande is a dull winner but a very solid one, for the moment.

[big bad fab]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

An interesting work by CSA on PS primary turnout's components:
http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2011/opi20111031-des-primaires-populaires.pdf

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #28 - 14 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   34,95
Sarkozy   24,63
Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   6,89
Mélenchon   5,86
Joly   4,70
Villepin   1,99
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Boutin   0,28
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,51
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,16
   
Hollande   60,02
Sarkozy   39,98

Don't worry, Antonio, l'exhaustivité est ma devise !

Here is the tracker for last week...
Hollande isn't really down, or just pulls back from its surreal highs.
Globally speaking, there is some sort of polarization around the big 3, as Mélenchon and Bayrou don't surge at all, contrary to what it has seemed for some weeks. Joly i still weak.
Morin has sunk among irrelevant small candidates.

Hollande isn't really in danger in the second round either.
He's just back at 60...

Very, very soon, my tracker for this week

[big bad fab]

I know LH2 sucks

you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

IFOP has big samples and is the closest of the tracker's results. This is, for the moment, the best pollstr for 2012.
For the moment.

[big bad fab]

I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

It has just been published. But LH2 is, for the moment, the pollster which has been the farthest away from the tracker. Really, it seems to be the worst, this turn.

And, in its previous poll, Hollande was at 39...
As for this poll, Le Pen is only at 15, clearly giving an advantage to Sarkozy (+5 at 29).
And Chevènement (at its best at 1.5), Mélenchon as high as 7 (+0.5), Joly as high as 6 (+1), all have a bad impact for Hollande.

For the moment, this poll is clearly an outlier.
For the second round, Hollande is still at 58.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #29 - 21 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande 33,62
Sarkozy 25,92
Le Pen 17,57
Mélenchon 5,93
Bayrou 6,78
Joly 4,57
Morin 0,64
Villepin 1,86
Boutin 0,33
Dupont-Aignan 0,75
Nihous 0,1
Arthaud 0,49
Poutou 0,34
Chevènement 0,69
Lepage 0,41

Hollande 59,32
Sarkozy 40,68

[big bad fab]

Antonio's graph is finer, but in the meantime...

As for the 2nd round, it's more boring:

[big bad fab]

If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally.

Oh no, you do as you wish.
It's just that I had my files open and used them for my blog and so just put the graphs here as I hadn't to wast too much time...
But loading the file through photobucket gives a sh***y result here

(maybe also that, without being aware of it, I like this downward pink line )

[big bad fab]

The very fact that there was a Lipietz '02 failure will prevent a Joly '12 crash.
But it may give Bayrou another small boost.
Bayrou is clearly hunting for centre-left and green votes at the moment: his critics against Sarkozy are more general and less personalized, while his critics against the left are more precise.
And in the end, he may well rally Sarkozy... Another big paradox...

Hollande has no real threat from the left: Mélenchon is unable to surge above 10 and Joly is already done. So, I'm not at all worried for him.
But, you're right, the media buzz is negative for him: that's stupid and undeserved, but it may have an influence...
It irritates me from a neutral viewpoint, but, of course, from a partisan viewpoint, I'd be so pleased if it could work and give Sarkozy a boost .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #30 - 28 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29
Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34
Joly   4,68
Villepin   1,65
Morin   0,67
Lepage   0,38
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Boutin   0,37
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,54
Poutou   0,44
Chevènement   0,74
   
Hollande   59,13
Sarkozy   40,87

Hollande may be a winner by default, but he is still a very big winner in the second round.

His decline in the first round isn't really worrying. Remember that when DSK exploded, Sarkozy was at 21, but Borloo was at 8 and Villepin at 4-5: Sarkozy is still 3 or 4 points under this total, whereas Villepin is vanishing and Morin isn't able to gain 1 point.

Le Pen is still very high and has a good potential to make a threatening comeback.
Joly seems to have stopped the bleeding.
Mélenchon is strong again but isn't able to surge really.
Bayrou is even, but we have to watch him: with Hollande ahving now problems with hollandais themselves, there may an opportunity for Bayrou.

Well, troubles among the left aren't really worrying fr Hollande as he can be seen as "strong" against the Greens. But now that his aide Lamdaoui hasn't the support of the party for a seat in the Assembly, he is angry... And some other hollandais are angry against aubrystes and the fact that Hollande isn't harsh enough against them....
THIS can be a bigger problem for Hollande than all the buzz around the Greens or Mélenchon's attacks.

[big bad fab]

The trend is clear : Hollande keeps losing and Sarkozy keeps growing, but Hollande's levels remain far above normality. If things go well for him, he can manage to stay above 30% in the 1st round and 58% in the second. Otherwise, may God help us...

Since you bring out comparisons with the beginning of the tracker, and since this is the 30th edition, let's have a look at some numbers, comparing the results of exactly 6 months ago (30/5).

Hollande : 26,01% -> 32,7% (+6,69)
Hulot/Joly : 8,61% -> 4,68% (-3,93)
Mélenchon : 5,03% -> 6,34% (+1,31)
Chevènement : 0,49% -> 0,74 (+0,25)
Total Left : 40,14% -> 44,46% (+4,32)

Sarkozy : 21,03% -> 26,29% (+5,26)
Bayrou : 5,39% -> 6,81% (+1,42)
Villepin : 3,84% -> 1,65% (-2,19)
Borloo/Morin : 7,43% -> 0,67%(-6,76)
Dupont-Aignan : 0,73% -> 0,83% (+0,1)
Boutin : 0% -> 0,37% (+0,37)
Nihous : 0% -> 0,08% (+0,08)
Lepage : 0% -> 0,38% (+0,38)
Total right : 38,42% -> 37,08% (-1,34)

Le Pen : 19,29% -> 17,49% (-1,8)
Arthaud : 1,02% -> 0,54% (-0,48)
Poutou : 1,13% -> 0,44% (-0,69)
Total extremes : 21,44% -> 18,47% (-2,97)


The trend is pretty clear : polarization on both sides with the collapse of two strong alternative candidacies (Hulot and Borloo), a still strong advantage for the left almost entirely due to Hollande, and a net decline of extremist candidates.

I would put Bayrou in a category of his own or in a centre category with Lepage.

Sarkozy hasn't made it for the entire decline in the (Borloo)Morin and Villepin candidacies. So, Hollande has still some margin to waste. But he must be careful now.
The last IFOP poll is less good for him (see my blog : I'll publish it tonight): 29.5 and 56.
Bayrou, as I anticipated it, seems on the rise (and Mélenchon too) and Le Pen remains strong among "the people".

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   31,98
Sarkozy   26,41
Le Pen   17,78
Bayrou   7,01
Mélenchon   6,55
Joly   4,60
Villepin   1,62
Morin   0,73
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,88
Boutin   0,39
Nihous   0,07
Arthaud   0,45
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,76
   
Hollande   58,49
Sarkozy   41,51

Only one new poll this week. A rather bad one for Hollande, but, on the other hand, popularity is again down for Sarkozy and Fillon.

The only notable feat is that Bayrou is at 7 again.
Le Pen is very resilient and really strong.
Villepin is almost out.

[big bad fab]

Hold on... there is another IPSOS poll, made on 2nd and 3rd of December, but published only this morning... sigh...
I'll update the tracker tonight. Fortunately, it's very, very close to the tracker !

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #31 - 5 December 2011
   
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       


BEWARE ! UPDATED WITH IPSOS AND BVA POLLS !      

Hollande   32,26
Sarkozy   26,13
Le Pen   17,62
Bayrou   7,20
Mélenchon   6,70
Joly   4,61
Villepin   1,60
Morin   0,63
Lepage   0,46
Dupont-Aignan   0,80
Boutin   0,40
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,47
Poutou   0,31
Chevènement   0,75
   
Hollande 58,73
Sarkozy   41,27

I'm forced to include now the latest polls, so that recent polls aren't too undervalued.
I don't intend to change the way I decrease the weight of old polls: I'll do it from the 1st of January. I know French medias too well: the first weeks of December seem wonderful, but the last 2 weeks will see no poll at all. But, afterwards, it'll be OK and I'll fasten the rhythm in January, a lil' more in February, even more in March, a lot more in the first 2 weeks of April and the 3rd week of April will be based only on the last 2 weeks.

BTW, Bayrou seems to be stronger and stronger. Mélenchon too. And Sarkozy is stalled again.

[big bad fab]

Fabien, I'm kind of worried by the precedent you are setting here. Shouldn't the rule be that the polls are integrated in the tracker in the first monday following their publishing ? Using the polling date rather than the publishing date will mean the possibility for retro-active editing of the tracker (like you just did). It really makes things dangerously confusing.

Maybe, I must think about it.
More and more, polls will be published sooner after the real polling date. And when I'll start to reduce the number of polls taken into account, the tracker would be too wrong.
On the other hand, you're right that it would mean that the tracker may be updated too often.

Let me think a bit (I've just had a very, very bad news in my job: some chambres régionales des comptes are going to be erased in the coming months...; and so I'm not able to think properly for the moment).

[big bad fab]

For tomorrow's tracker, I strongly recommend you to count the newest 2 polls at their 100% value, since they have been published after previous Monday.

Do not take into account my "update" for last week. And for tomorrow, I'll do as usual.
And I'll include the last LH2 poll, which is probably another crap one, but in which Bayrou is up and Le Pen (too much) down)

[big bad fab]

Again, I'm awfully busy this week.
I'll try to publish the tracker tonight...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #33 - 12 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   31,91
Sarkozy   26,21
Le Pen   17,09
Bayrou   7,98
Mélenchon   6,76
Joly   4,59
Villepin   1,50
Morin   0,69
Lepage   0,42
Dupont-Aignan   0,85
Boutin   0,49
Nihous   0,04
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,26
Chevènement   0,77
   
Hollande   58,34
Sarkozy   41,66

Hollande is still very strong.
Bayrou is surging, as anticipated, and he will surge even more next week, with the new CSA poll.
While he may have been, only 3 weeks ago, a threat for Hollande, he is now clearly a danger for... Sarkozy. When France lose its AAA rating, Sarkozy will probably lose voters to Bayrou, while still being under Le Pen's threat.

I've written about Sarkozy being crushed between Le Pen and a moderate socialist (first DSK, then Hollande), but he may well be crushed only between Le Pen and Bayrou...
This campaign will be excruciating for him...

And even if he can gain some ground in the 2nd round, it's only a transition: Hollande is much too high in polls and.... Bayrou may well threaten him too, either directly, or by weakening him enough to allow Le Pen to make it to the second round...

Mélenchon is in relative good shape but he doesn't manage to reach 10%, even 8%.
The other candidates are low or very low.

[big bad fab]

There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.

[big bad fab]

Bayrou isn't exactly the embodiment of tepidity, I think.

Let me be clear: deep inside, he has a weak personality and he is a coward and he doesn't stand for anything really consistent.

But the support he is receiving isn't about "moderation", "consensus", "centre", in the scandinavian meaning of these words, whatever the results of the CSA poll on French people wanting a "national union" government.
This isn't the French tradition at all (see my post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750).

Bayrou isn't Adolfo Suarez, Romano Prodi, Frederik Reinfeldt or Jean Chrétien ().

Bayrou is just another little proud politician trying to be the "Saviour", like Royal, Sarkozy, Villepin, Le Pen, Villiers, Mélenchon were or are (DSK was also a "Saviour", but not voluntarily...).
He has benefited from the big mistake of the French right: creating a "parti unique", crushing the centre-right.

His only interest is in the complexity of his electorate:
ecologists disappointed with ideological Joly,
real centrists (heirs of the MRP),
soft rightists (old and "kind" people),
über-realistic social-democrats who are afraid of Hamon-Emmanuelli-Montebourg-Aubry inside the PS,
neo-poujadists who were behind Le Pen once but who are not especially racists,
young people who think they can re-create politics and ideas and the world and who think every idea of the past is dead (well, in a way, some Pirate spirit here... i.e. selfish people who think they are really rebellious and they are freedom fighters just because they want to consume everything, everywhere, whenever they want and for free).

He is more the candidate of those who are politically "lost" or orphans (he is even gaining ground among workers in the CSA poll !!!) and of those who are (or think they are) "idealists".
Nowadays, with a dull Hollande, a worked-up Sarkozy and radical Le Pen and Mélenchon, he is still, like in 2007, an easy outlet, a not-so-bad receptacle, for the disappointed voters.

Unfortunately, he is the only way to have fun and surprises during this election, which is, as predited, a boring one for the moment (as Hollande is a shoo-in, for the moment, despite all his own problems).

[big bad fab]

There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.

I assume you didn't include it in the tracker, correct ?

I really don't get this Bayrou trend now. His new "buy French" campaign is so pathetic and overdone...

Anyways, it's a good surprise to see Hollande isn't crumbling. Considering how much of a fail he was in all these days...

No, CSA isn't included: I'm abiding by the traditional rules, don't worry .

There are 2 other Harris and IFOP polls tonight.
Bayrou again at 11, Le Pen at 19 and 20.
Hollande and Sarkozy down... (28 and 27.5 / 25 and 24)
And 57/43 and 56/44 in the second round.

And Villepin at 3 and 3.5 again Kill French people, this stupid people !!!

I'll publish them tomorrow on my blog and will announce a change in the way I weigh the polls .
The next tracker, on Monday the 19th (I won't be late, because it's holidays from tomorrow ), will be very interesting.

[big bad fab]

Yep, see OW, IFOP  and Harris on my blog... not very good for Hollande (though it's not really better for Sarkozy).

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #34 - 19 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 20% each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   30,36
Sarkozy   25,58
Le Pen   17,4
Bayrou   9,77
Mélenchon   6,56
Joly   4,17
Villepin   2,11
Morin   0,61
Lepage   0,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,86
Boutin   0,53
Nihous   0,02
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,75
   
Hollande   57,58
Sarkozy   42,42

(my dishwasher is kaputt: does this count as an excuse for being late ? )

I've slightly changed the way I weigh polls... because the campaign is fastening and more polls are published.

Bayrou up, up, up...