Guatemala 2011 presidential election

[big bad fab]

Well... I'm not giving anything here...

Has anybody reliable and complete results ?
And a piece of analysis on how votes will transfer from the first to the second round ?
Are polls reliable (in 2007, Perez Molina was ahead in the last polls, just to lose to Colom) ?

Thanks in advance.

[big bad fab]

Will Perez Molina have a parliamentarian majority or at least a plurality ?

It will be interesting to see, if elected, which path he'll take.
Mexico, Colombia and Peru have given us many surprises, in one direction or the other.

Rigoberta Menchu has gained ground: something like 0.2%, I guess

[big bad fab]

Because the country is a sh*thole, maybe ?

Sometimes, you should calm down and not JUDGE immediately and definitely .
Or not judge at all, BTW .

Every country is interesting and there are not "bad" peoples and "good" peoples.
All Venezuelans aren't crap because of Chavez.
All Italians aren't crap because of Berlusconi.
etc.

Sorry, I'm not adding value here, just that, sometimes, you tend to be a bit of a political Judge Dredd .
No offense.

[big bad fab]

People, people, calm down. The incumbent president is actually leftie, and the only reason why there was no strong leftie was because his ex-wife was barred from running because the constitution prevents relatives of the prez from running (divorcing him did not help). So instead of calling the country a "sh**thole", which it probably is, it might also help to look at the situation calmly.

So where's the problem ?

I meant that it's terribly easy to call a place a sh**thole because of its politics - I do it all the time - but in reality, it's a bad idea. It shows both terrible hackishness and it's not a good way to analyze and compare electoral politics. If you can't analyze something in politics without resorting to calling things 'sh**tholes' or people 'idiots', then, sadly, you shouldn't be analyzing politics.

I just made a quick comment, which was never supposed to be a detailed analysis of the country, of which I only have a very basic knowledge of this country - and never intended to sum up all the country's political and social history in one word. Now, I have the impression you don't really disagree with me about the comment itself, so there's no problem really.

Of course I'm glad to read your more developped, and more intelligent analyses, so to learn something more.

I'm too lazy to write what Gael writes so well: just read him and you understand what I wanted to say, Antonio.

The "left" killed itself by trying to have current president's wife as a candidate and, then trying to ensure the trick by divorcing just for that purpose...
Sure, some of the "rightist" candidates are even worse, but this "centre-left" party wasn't very clever.

What is interesting in this f***ing country () is that we'll see if Perez Molina is able to evolve à la Santos or, in a way, to prove wrong all the PC pundits, as Humala (on the other side) seems to be doing in Peru, and to be far more moderate than anticipated.

I really have no clue, but it'll be interesting to follow this.

And, with 14m people, Guatemala is a pretty damn important and understimated sh**thole .