MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excellent! She's going to make a very fine addition to the Senate.

Moore owes Alsobrooks for her endorsement in 2022 that swung PG County.

Will Jawando (who dropped out a couple days ago) has also endorsed Alsobrooks.

The Lieutenant Governor has also endorsed her, I believe.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cool, Safe D.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

“A pretty bad sign for Obama’s chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Lingle thinks she has a chance.”

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Raskin is all in for Angela.

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1759349198367953022?s=46

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hogan's got the same chance Bredesen has in 2018...or Espy for that matter.

Hogan has a much bigger hill to climb than those two did.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

His chances of winning went from 0.8% to 0.6% with that interview.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I can’t believe there are people who actually think this guy is going to overcome a likely Biden +30 win in the state.

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1770425360284348478?s=46

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Endorsements usually don't mean much to actual voters, but have we ever seen an entire party apparatus back one candidate so hard when another candidate who is an incumbent Congressman is also running? Feels like the deck is stacked against Trone at this point.

And despite all that, Trone was still leading in the last independent poll that we got.

His lead was only 7 points in that poll and Alsobrooks' ads just started going on air. That was also before his j*gaboo gaffe. He's not safe at all.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I imagine Hogan would rather run against Alsobrooks than Trone but I don’t know enough about her or about Maryland swing voters to say for sure.

I read a single Politico article on the situation so I'm now basically an expert. Gonna go out on a limb and declare this race only lean D if Alsobrooks wins the D nomination, moving to lean R if Hogan can capture some moderate Murkowski energy instead of seeming as much of a generic R as he has been.

There is no reason aside from Trone’s self-funding to assume Alsobrooks is weaker than Trone. Alsobrooks does not present like a #Squad member at all if that’s the insinuation. She’s very much part of the Dem establishment.

Atlas users, from what I've observed, tend to have a bias against black women politicians and often view them as weaker candidates. For what reasons, I'm not quite sure.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

I guess that for sure helps her.

An endorsement from someone like Obama would seal it for her. He still has time to do it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

Facts don’t care about your feelings. The facts in this case being Trone consistently polling 3-5 points better than Alsobrooks in a general matchup vs. Hogan, and having a 20x fundraising advantage.

But sure, just blame racism. Peak Atlas #analysis.

Calm down. You didn't have to double text me to get your point across.

It's already been pointed out to you that Trone's better polling is likely just because of his name recognition advantage, nothing more. Nothing Alsobrooks has done on the campaign trail has given us any reason to believe Trone is a better quality candidate. I do think it is a bit racist that even after his j*gaboo comment people here still believe him to be the better candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Barbara Mikulski endorsed Alsobrooks and appeared at a rally for her last night.

It's really gonna suck if she still ends up losing after all this. It'll just further validate the reality that money can still very much buy political office in America.

Or that Trone is indeed a much stronger candidate

Besides his money, what makes him a much stronger candidate?