2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I also think the ratings are pretty reasonable. Alaska starting off as Likely D is so beautiful it brings a tear to my eye.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Victoria Spartz bowing out of the House after just four years.

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1621554662133334017?s=20&t=WUpGT-eJky37hy...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems land their top recruit in NY-22 in State Senator John Mannion.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2023/07/state-sen-john-mannion-will-launch-bid-for-central-new-york-seat-in-congress.html?outputType=amp

It's early, but I feel like NY Dems are starting to pull it together. The candidates so far have all been pretty solid.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1681669011707142151

Though it should be noted that a lot of times, primary internals can be very unreliable.

I support Liz and the inevitable Whitmer family political dynasty.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For the love of God, Pennsylvania is not "Tilt D" and it's certainly not more likely to flip than open seat Michigan. Did they somehow miss the news that Casey is running?

It seems like prognosticators this cycle have been unusually bearish on Casey's chances for some unknown, bizarre reason. The guy has literally never won an election by less than 9 points and the Republicans don't have a viable candidate. There is no realistic scenario in which he loses, and any rating that puts the race anywhere less than Likely D should be discarded and ignored.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

And news anchors are very potent candidates. I definitely think we have a very good shot this year, and the Harrisburg area trending D quickly is going to help.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

Never heard of her. Is she a lock to win the primary?

I wouldn’t say she’s a lock just yet, but being a popular former news anchor, she has the name recognition advantage locked down, which is probably the most important thing in a primary.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That same YouGov poll has the Democrats with a +32 favorability rating amongst 18-29 year olds, which is super refreshing. I just wish they'd actually, ya know, vote. An entire generation of Americans have the power to destroy the Republican Party, but alas...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New YouGov Poll: Dems 42-41 over Republicans.

Democrats with a -11 favorability rating, Republicans at -29.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WzgzhWp.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New YouGov Poll: Dems 42-41 over Republicans.

Democrats with a -11 favorability rating, Republicans at -29.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_WzgzhWp.pdf

Hopefully the favorability ratings mean Democrats have more room to win over undecideds. But I'm not holding my breath.

They were able to win over them + independents last year despite all the political headwinds. I wouldn’t completely doubt it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Another Safe D district is open-

https://twitter.com/NigelJaquiss/status/1719142958287761683?s=20

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Navigator poll has Republican incumbents in swing districts with an average -7 net favorability rating, while Democratic incumbents are at +9.

Overall, Republicans in congress have a -21 (39-60%) favorability rating, Democrats at -10 (44-54%).

https://navigatorresearch.org/republican-incumbents-see-lowest-favorability-and-job-approval-ratings-this-year/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ryanc_2025/status/1735861970560000263?t=UBkqEmWs3tW5VgFpIAxR...

Congrats on flipping a gerrymandered district that was guaranteed to change hands. Red Wave '24!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New Muhlenberg poll has the generic ballot in Pennsylvania at D+3 (46-43%).

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/PA_Elec_Dec23_Report_FINAL.pdf

And a new commonwealth foundation survey (Republican pollster) has it tied 40-40%.

Favorability of the GOP is 41-57% (-16)

Favorability of the Democratic Party is 43-53% (-10)

https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Common-Ground-Q4-2023-Toplines.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

I feel like VA-02 and NJ-07 are the most glaring recruitment failures for House Democrats. Doesn’t mean either of them can’t lose, but the fields in both races look pretty underwhelming.

Am I missing something? What exactly did she do wrong in the video?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Might be relevant: New Navigator Research poll shows the House Republican majority with a -29 approval rating.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New YouGov poll has Dems with the lead: 44-43%

Interestingly, the very right-trending demographic group of 18-29 years olds support the Democrats 60-29% over the Republicans. They also give the Democratic Party a +25 favorability rating. #FunWithCrosstabs

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_hi9l9P2.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'd personally move Sykes, Deluzio, Pelota, and D'Esposito all one spot to the left, and none to the right because I don't want to.

But solid ratings overall.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Thanks to new McLaughlin and OnMessage polls that were meh for the GOP, the 538 tracker is now back at dead even, 44.1-44.1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

I wonder if the liberal media talking about how much Trump is supposedly favored to win will cause some sort of momentum for down ballot Dems. Voters don't like either candidates, it's easy to see them gravitating towards the opposing party so that they can keep some sort of a check on them. We're already seeing how well Senate Dems are polling. Maybe we won't see any major convergence after all?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems +2 in latest YouGov poll that shows Trump up 1.

Up 24 points with 18-29 year olds and 23 with Hispanics. Fun!

Dem party favorability stands at 36-56% (-20), GOP at 33-60% (-27). Last week's YouGov also showed the GOP's unfavorability cracking 60%.

Moderate voters give the GOP a -49 favorability rating, and the Dems a -12.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_mTlzQOB.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

An internal poll done by the Tony Vargas campaign for NE-02 has him leading Rep. Don Bacon 46-43%

If the Democrats are going to flip any seats this year, this one will be at the top of the list.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/03/29/vargas-poll-shows-another-tight-u-s-house-race-with-bacon-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So I see people have not learned anything about taking Democratic internals at their word.

So only Dem internals are bs?

It's not like this type of a result for a district like this is crazy and hard to believe.