Considering how weak the GOP field is, she'll probably win by a margin nearly as big as in 2018, so about 10 points -- 54 to 44 to 2.
Polarization and the presidential ballot will almost certainly guarantee any candidate with an (R) at least 45-46% of the vote, I think. And if that was indeed the result, by how much would Biden win Wisconsin then?
By "polarization," do you mean that it is virtually impossible to imagine a significant number of voters voting something other than a straight party ticket? Virtually impossible to imagine several percentage points of Wisconsin voters voting for both Trump and Baldwin? That virtually 100% of the Wisconsin voters who vote for Trump will also vote for the Republican who Trump endorsed? I don't accept that those things are always the case, so I can surmise that even if Biden wins Wisconsin by 2 points, Baldwin could win by a bigger margin, with tens of thousands of voters voting for both Baldwin and Trump, because they aren't impressed with Hovde's campaign, and Trump's endorsement does not always impress 100% of his voters.
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