If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip? (user search)
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  If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Given a D-Senate, what's the probability it arose due to appointment/special election/party switch?
#1
0-10%		  
#2
10-20%		  
#3
20-30%		  
#4
30-40%		  
#5
40-50%		  
#6
50-60%		  
#7
60-70%		  
#8
70-80%		  
#9
80%-90%		  
#10
90-100%		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: If Ds win the Senate in 2018, probability it was due to an "out of class" flip?  (Read 2831 times)
Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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Posts: 12,808
« on: January 13, 2017, 06:04:28 AM »
« edited: January 13, 2017, 06:13:15 AM by ERM64man »
80-90 seems likely. It would probably involve McCain, Portman, Murkowski, and Kennedy (who used to be a Democrat) switching. It would also involve Flake and Heller losing. There is also an unlikely outside chance Isakson resigns because of health problems and Michelle Nunn wins a special election against the appointed GOP incumbent.
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