Will Darrell Issa lose in 2018?

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Will he lose next year?

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I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

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I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

I'm surprised he already announced running this early. What if some other Democrat advances to November and Applegate finishes third in the primary?

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I think it's more likely he retires and Applegate wins it in a relative walk.

I think Issa will run and lose. Will Applegate even run next year, or will it be some other Democrat?

Google is your friend.

I'm surprised he already announced running this early. What if some other Democrat advances to November and Applegate finishes third in the primary?

No other Democrat in the district exceeds Applegate's stature. Democrats have pretty much already coalesced around him, too. If I was to bet this far out, I think this district is on borrowed time for Republicans, whether Issa runs or not.

Democrats from other districts can run in CA-49. One can run in a district without living there as long as they live in the same state.

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I'm well aware of the rules. But they'd be stupid to get anyone else to do it. Applegate is sufficient, and is probably favored anyway in 2018.

Would centrists potentially vote for Applegate?

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Here, it says there was no middle ground in the Issa-Applegate race. It says Applegate is a progressive firebrand similar to Bernie Sanders. He doesn't seem to be a moderate like Lou Correa (D-CA-46).
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/issa-730480-applegate-campaign.html

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If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

It's a conservative-leaning district. I wonder if I could run as a Blue Dog Democrat there (conservative, but to the left of Rohrabacher). A small Southern part of my hometown (Garden Grove) is in CA-48. My coalition would be never-Trump conservatives, moderate Republicans, Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, and college-educated whites. It's an open primary state; Republicans could vote for me in the primery. Would It be a good idea for me to run there?

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If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

It's a conservative-leaning district. I wonder if I could run as a Blue Dog Democrat there (conservative, but to the left of Rohrabacher). A small Southern part of my hometown (Garden Grove) is in CA-48. My coalition would be never-Trump conservatives, moderate Republicans, Hispanics, Vietnamese-Americans, and college-educated whites. It's an open primary state; Republicans could vote for me in the primery. Would It be a good idea for me to run there?

I mean, if you feel you have the background for it and feel that you could raise the insane amount of money that a competitive congressional campaign requires, why not? You'd probably need to contact the DCCC for advice though, not some anonymous online forum.

I do feel I have the background for it. What if I could raise the large amount of money somehow? I feel that Republican votes in the primary plus moderate Democrats could help me if I decide to run someday.

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If Rohrabacher lost (which I'm skeptical of given how Dems have no bench there, though they could run a veteran or something), then Democrats probably already won the House.

Assemblyman/Former Anaheim mayor Tom Daly could run for Rohrabacher's seat (especially because CA-46 is already represented by a Democrat and CA-48 is a neighboring district). Much of CA-AD-69 is in Santa Ana. Parts of Santa Ana are in CA-48. Daly would be the strongest potential candidate I can think of.

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No. He wouldn't. Again, people who don't live in the district tend to fare much worse than local candidates. For like the tenth time.

Not Grace Napolitano, who lives in Norwalk, but doesn't represent any part of Norwalk (Linda Sanchez represents all of Norwalk). I only suggested Daly because CA-48 has a weak Democratic bench.

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Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

California has an independent redistricting commission to make districts fair. The state's legislature doesn't handle redistricting.

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Possibly.  If not he will be drawn out in 2022.  The 49 should lose most of what is left of its Orange county portion if the growth patterns are holding up. 

California has an independent redistricting commission to make districts fair. The state's legislature doesn't handle redistricting.

I know.  Someone can still be drawn out even with a non-partisan commission.  It's why I mentioned the growth in Orange and San Diego County.  If that holds up, the 49 will have to be entirely based in San Diego, which will make it much more Dem.

That might happen, but it's too early to tell what the districts will look like. Population growth could reverse course, especially if house prices go up. Issa's district might even get a new number after redistricting.