MT SEN 2018: Does Tester win?

[Greedo punched first]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

[Greedo punched first]

At this juncture, I'd say it looks likely. He's a powerful incumbent and the Republican bench has thinned dramatically after Fox's exit.

I think so too. Fox would have been the most likely candidate to defeat Tester.

[Greedo punched first]

He's probably the most overrated Democrat running in 2018, honestly. I don't think the Democrats' overconfidence here is warranted at all.

There's definitely a chance Tester loses, but I would still give him a slight edge with Fox not running.

[Greedo punched first]

He's probably the most overrated Democrat running in 2018, honestly. I don't think the Democrats' overconfidence here is warranted at all.

There's definitely a chance Tester loses, but I would still give him a slight edge with Fox not running.

Fox was quite overrated anyway and there is no way to know for sure how he would have done against Tester (I have a gut feeling that he wasn't even the most electable Republican). Really, this kind of "Now that Fox isn't running, Tester is heavily favored" analysis is pretty lazy. You'd expect better from Atlas.

I don't think Tester should be heavily favored, just slightly favored with Fox not running.

[Greedo punched first]

2018 looks like a bad year for the GOP. Democratic turnout has been higher in MT recently. Tim Fox isn't running. Does Tester win another term?

From everyone's favorite rag
http://www.salon.com/2017/05/27/wake-up-liberals-there-will-be-no-2018-blue-wave-no-democratic-majority-and-no-impeachment/

OH YEA 2018 IS A MIDTERM!!!! THAT MEANS DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE 10+ SENATE SEATS AND DOZENS OF HOUSE SEATS BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED IN 2010 and 2014!!!!!

That was under a Democratic President. Democrats had a surge in 2006. I think Democrats can hold on to MT, OH, PA, WV, FL, MI, and WI. I think McCaskill, Heitkamp, and Donnelly lose. Heller has a decent chance to lose. Flake has a slight chance to lose. I predict a Republican net gain, but not a major GOP wave that takes out a high number of Democrats.

[Greedo punched first]

I am like 99.9% sure that Tester is in big trouble, but if the forum and all the MT Democrats I "know" are right and he wins easily, I'll be fully prepared to eat crow. Many people think that Rosendale and Olszewski are destined to lose Mike Taylor-style, but IMO the state is wayyy too polarized for there to be a 2002 redux. Also, Tester doesn't have nearly as much crossover appeal or charisma as Heitkamp or Manchin, plus both of them are much more popular than Tester. Yes, the state is Democratic-friendly down-ballot, but the right Republican can definitely win a Senate race in a midterm year. Tester needs his liberal base in Western MT to turn out in record numbers but at the same time he can't afford to alienate any Republican-leaning crossover voters in the East (and given his voting record, I doubt he will get many to begin with). It's a fairly narrow path, and I doubt Eastern MT will be nearly as friendly to him next year as it was in 2012. Only time will tell, though. I also don't see any evidence other than that weird Morning Consult poll that Tester is very popular, or at least more popular than Bullock.

Right now, I believe neither party can take the race for granted (and no candidate has the advantage). If I had to bet money on it, I'd probably go with the Republicans, even if it sounds like I'm being bold here.

I also believe Daines is much more vulnerable than most people here assume. Generally I would advise against making hasty, overconfident predictions. Creating an aura of invincibility around candidates like Tester, but also Daines and Fox (if he runs for governor) can backfire spectacularly.

Daines, like Tester, is also not invincible. Could Steve Bullock beat Daines in 2020?

[Greedo punched first]

If it were a Clinton midterm, I think he'd be the underdog, but since it's not clear who his opponent will be, and he's seen by many as more moderate than the average Senate Democrat (perhaps that's not saying much in the eyes of a conservative), I'd give him a slight edge right now. I'd rate this race Toss-Up/Tilt D.

Same. I don't think the people here realize that "slightly favored" does not equal "OMG Tester is going to win by Baucus style margins!!!", but red herrings will be red herrings. Also, if people want to assume 2018 will be like 2014 and 2016 all over again, whatever

Exactly. I say tilt D.