Rasmussen: Trump +10

[Tekken_Guy]

Because Rassy only polled match-ups with RFK they won’t affect the H2H average.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, Biden is losing and I know a lot of you are absolutely reveling in that, but that doesn't mean you should be taking a Rasmussen poll seriously. Even RCP stopped using them.

RCP still uses Rasmussen, but because they only polled 3-way and 5-way they're not in the H2H average.

[Tekken_Guy]

at this point im almost ready to say Trump is the favorite in this election.

I get being on edge, but people overreacting over specific polls is just too much. This isn't tenable for 6 more months.

If you're going to freak out over every poll that's bad, but then just ignore when there's normal polls in between, then what are we even doing here? This past week we have gotten tied swing state polls, polls with Biden in the lead, polls with Trump in the lead, and polls with movement towards both Biden and Trump.

Fretting over a Rasmussen poll is just too much (esp when they've been banned by 538 no less)

I think it was the CNN poll, in addition to the headlines about Gaza and the protests, that are inspiring the forum's return to despair about Biden. And it's infectious, it's kind of affected me too, and I've been resolving to try and stay positive after the last two years of elections went well for Democrats.

As we famously saw in the two “who wins the election” threads on this poll. Trump is really starting to pull away in the new poll after having a narrow lead for several days. I might as well start one of my own to see if things have shifted further in Trump’s direction.

[Tekken_Guy]

Rasmussen is a fake poll and has been ever since it changes hands. Anyone pollster can produce a ten point lead if they push one candidate under 40% (highly unrealistic). The fact that they can only get Trump to 46% speaks volumes. 46% is his base.

I think Biden had a bump in Feb/Mar and now it's faded and we're approximately back where it was around the New Year, with polls split between nearly tied and a Republican version of 2008.  However, even the nearly tied scenario suggests Trump would be favored in the EC.

Around the new year Trump was leading the PV averages by 2-3, occasionally 4 points and was polling strong in Michigan, now he’s been hovering in the 0-2 range and MI has converged with PA/WI in the averages around Trump+1 each.

Also I could see things shifting back towards Biden once the CNN poll leaves the RCP average.

[Tekken_Guy]

Red avatars were dooming in 2020 anytime Biden got a poll where he led by less than 5 points. So I'm not surprised a poll like this is wreaking havoc, but I'm disappointed.

This is the GOP's game, and they've been doing it for years. They release wonky polls to feed the media beast, get clicks online, and shift the polling aggregates. That in turn leads to a "Dems in Disarray" narrative that can be self-fulfilling if it depresses Democratic enthusiasm. They'd rather win that way than by actually nominating good candidates and running on a popular platform.

All of us should know this by now and take polls like this with a grain of salt.

I know Biden faces more headwinds this year, and I take credible polls showing that seriously. But even then, they're just a snapshot in time.

Rassy definitely is trash, and has been over the last few cycles (though ironically the often show Biden with higher approval ratings than other pollsters). However, it's hard to dismiss the entire polling just as nonsense because it makes you look like a hack living in denial over Biden facing a serious challenge. What makes to election so difficult to rate in my opinion is polling versus fundamentals (economy, lack of scandal, weak opponent, special elections and midterms).

I said all of that in my original post. I'm not living in a fantasy.

And "the entire polling" isn't bad for Biden. We've gotten many polls this week that show him leading. It's sad how everyone forgets that whenever one bad poll comes out -- which plays into the GOP strategy I'm talking about.

With "entire polling" I meant swing states in particular, where Biden is in a tougher spot than nationally, and even in national polls he leads by one or two, he could still lose. People here generally seem to overreact, especially when a bad poll comes out. I think one reason is because we're talking about Trump and not a "normal conservative" whose victory wouldn't change too much.

While Trump’s holding up better in the sun belt swing states, in the rust belt trio polling is starting to converge with NPV polling. We’ve had a few Biden leads in MI recently which we haven’t seen in a while,

[Tekken_Guy]

Red avatars were dooming in 2020 anytime Biden got a poll where he led by less than 5 points. So I'm not surprised a poll like this is wreaking havoc, but I'm disappointed.

This is the GOP's game, and they've been doing it for years. They release wonky polls to feed the media beast, get clicks online, and shift the polling aggregates. That in turn leads to a "Dems in Disarray" narrative that can be self-fulfilling if it depresses Democratic enthusiasm. They'd rather win that way than by actually nominating good candidates and running on a popular platform.

All of us should know this by now and take polls like this with a grain of salt.

I know Biden faces more headwinds this year, and I take credible polls showing that seriously. But even then, they're just a snapshot in time.

CNN poll is in the gop game ?

Well it fits the narrative the channel is trying to push. Partially because it’s a juicy narrative that gets clicks and that a Trump presidency is good for his ratings.